Vuelta 2023 - 15h

[flockmastoR]

Welcome to the race thread of the afternoon Vuelta. A&D will most likely participate and hopes for some known and unknown competetors in the afternoon. Last stage race for our Giro winner Volta! The team more cheap than at the Giro:

#1 Alessandro Volta, GC captain and afternoon Giro winner, can he get his second GT win?
#2 Karl Prachar, our classic captain and cheap version of Akos Detreköi
#3 Rolf Sievert, young classic who wants wo reach 70 mountain in Spain, additional a TTT lokomotive
#4 Anders Celsius, classic and (H)S helper
#5 Oleksij Iwachnenko, HS can he fight for the points classement?
#6 Georg Ohm, 60-80
#7 Augustin deCoulomb, 58-85-78
#8 Johann Loschmidt, Autrian tempo bolzer with reg
#9 Carlo Avogadro, Italian tempo bolzer with reg

in the hunt:
#10 James Watt, flat rider with good sprint
#11 Yann LeCun, good loader with reg some mountain and downhill
#12 NgoBao Chau, second climber unlikely but still possible

Doesn't look that cheap at all, hm

[Gipfelstuermer]

Like every GT this year, we wanted to join with a GC rider, then were too poor to buy a GC rider and then doubted our participation. But this time it is extreme, because Vuelta profiles have hardly any stages for non-GC teams... so I have to be egoistic financially and will only ride Vuelta if participation is low. On the other hand, that's good news for everyone else. If there is little participation, I will add myself as cannon fodder. If there is high participation, you don't need the Gipfelstuermers for an exciting race.

[CircleCycle]

I try to start here, but I am most likely not there until 04.09.
so many sitters and offdays or no start at all

[schappy]

We start most likely here.

#1 Anastassija Merkushyna - "Leader" for our Team. Maybe Top 10 GC possible
#2 Oleksandra Merkushyna - Time travelist in our team
#3 Fenna Kalma - Lazy young Mountain rider
#4 Jill Roord - Classic with a little bit TT
#5 Julija Dschyma - Young rider, allowed to do everything
#6 Nadija Belkina - Young rider, allowed to do everything
#7 Marcel Pfeifer - "Sprinter" maybe less Sprinter here to get some good places
#8 Andreas Klosterhalfen - Cheap
#9 Elina Switolina - Cheap

Target, dont know...

[cataracs]

I try to start here, but I am most likely not there until 04.09.
so many sitters and offdays or no start at all

I can be your sitter.

[C.Pommes]

Dont know if its the right decision but we start here aswell.

Marcel Meisen - After Giro and Tour a Stagewin here is the goal
Klaas Polters
Sjaak Cobus
Harvey Grey
Dan VandenBerg
Christian Fröhnd
Ignacio Sebredo
Yoshua Vosman
Mylan Ippel

[Robyklebt]

Ah, regrets today.

The group, was clear I was going in the group despite thinking I had decent chances with Steiner and possibly Lekubarri, Lekubarri then was nothing. But after the Tour, when on stage 1 every single stage favorite and GC favorite except me went into the group... no no, we're not playing that anymore.

Group then CC/Taka gets the mountains jersey... red fairly shortly before the km change with his puller... OK, then I take a prolonged break. Let luck decide seemed much better, especially since it's just for one day, the stage the much bigger prize, and always seemed possible. So went out, 20 km later, mostly downhill CC/Taka said not with me, only poor Pommes riding. Group still with minimal chances, km 140 leaders in, this time it was Schappy, who decided not to ride. Not sure why, busy, hurt feelings because of the -3 battle we had, thinking the rider in the back had better chances, or something else? Anyway, no Schappy in tempo, no communication, a few attacks by Gronbech, but with his flat that's where I was hanging...

Then attack by CC/Taka from the peloton, looked reasonably dangerouse actually, but finally wasn't, Donkey doesn't understand c4f yet it seems, when it was at 30" and only came down to 25" before the 8 I thought he might do it.. .but ok, no downhill.

8, Hill goes, Volta and Bruhn follow, Baer can't, BW rides, stays at 2", Steiner attacks, 1" back, Hill attacked too in front. Argh, thought I would catch them with the attack, more energy... maybe the -1 flat training today to blame? So finally 4th and 6th, thought Steiner had good chances after the 8, and with his sprint thought at the start too, +4 at the end should follow everywhere, even Hill. But not on 8. Argh

GC:

BW the favorite, but actually even with his training, now 87 like Volta... he's now 32" back, he should win 1'2" in the ITT... that's only 30" advantage, with Volta having the better sprint... 30" are not all that much. And even with both having 87 mountain, Volta can basically wait for the last km, try an attack there if Baer rode before, or rely on the sprint to get the 4" or so more bonifications. There's 9 more mountain top arrivals. And with Xorret de Cati an almost mountain top arrival. Of course others, Horejsi wiht 88 (but 54 flat which can hurt, and doubtful management often), Hill (big danger) Bruhn (53 flat) with 87, Steiner with 86 but sprint that will hope to get wins and bonifications too.... so not all these 10 stages will give time to AAD, but still, he certainly can hope to get quite a bit of the 30" he needs back there.

So BW likes groups and AAD wants bonifications? We'll see from tomorrow. Rest of course is not out either Goodyear as second option at 32", Steiner and Marquez 44", Bruhn 45", Hill after yesterday's disaster 1'04". Horejsi after the even bigger disaster 1'30".

Might be good for AAD to let them come back closer, to potentially force Baer to work himself more? But on the other hand they risk stealing bonifications... So somehow both BW and AAD have interest to let other through and to catch others. BW let through less bonifications for Volta, but Steiner for example should "only" lose 1'24" to Baer in the TT, so doesn't want him too far ahead either. For AAD the opposite, nobody ahead, bigger chances for bonifications, but people ahead, more pressure for BW.
Promises to be a seconds game for a while. But for the moment clearly Baer and Volta are the big favorites. Hill the TdF winner next, he's the TdF winner. A cheater, just training for the TdF, grrrr. HOpe he goes down to 86 to become a perfect ally to Steiner who stays at 86!

Second options, Goodyear, Marquez, Szanyi.. for the moment not that dangerous, Goodyear, as long as Baer looks ahead including the TT, no reason to go for him. Marquez is only 84 and if he trains on the 5th is 85, if he trains twice then 86 for the last few days, normally doesn't seem strong enough. Szenyi far back and well, often doubtful management.

Today BW clearly the loser, should have let the group through in hindsight. But then the group really killed itself anyway. AAD did tempo, but while he didn't do as little a BW thought for a while, he could have done a little more for red... why not try to keep red the whole race?
BW's tempo for Wild seemed strange anyway, thought that if classics, then it's Truelove Lekubarri, not Wild, but even then the climbers can follow. on the 4. But was purely climbers. Then not being able to follow Hill while Volta can of course hurts, but that's not necessarily predictable, although will have to check if Baer has ridden other things this month, his form might be somewhere else? Which would change quite a few things for the rest of August already, then tomorrow and Thursday become big chances for AAD to gain a sizeable chunk of the necessary time back.

Wasn't looking forward to the Vuelta much really, but this actually sounds quite exciting, especially if Hill, Steiner, Bruhn manage to stay in the race, come into it, which seems somehow possible too. A multi-team fight (not that kind of multi...) seems exciting after years of mostly duels.

[flockmastoR]

Pure A&D dominance.

Then not being able to follow Hill while Volta can of course hurts, but that's not necessarily predictable, although will have to check if Baer has ridden other things this month, his form might be somewhere else? Which would change quite a few things for the rest of August already, then tomorrow and Thursday become big chances for AAD to gain a sizeable chunk of the necessary time back.

I found that Wild/Prachar/Borovicka discussion funny but I decided to call the bluff. For me it seemed a classical early Hill win stage with some outside chances of Lekubari/flat strong climbers who can follow him. Predictably with CC and Donkey 2 teams with good chances in the group lowered my motivation. Don't really understand how the group that was through already managed to not get the stage. In the end, as Donkey said, not predictable that Baer cannot follow the Hill attack on the 8, ok less flat but shouldn't play a role on the 8. If there wasn't a big helper mismanagement, probably a form issue, but also possible he has a bit less power + slightly worse form (form for the 31th while Hill has topform today). I think the next days will decide.

Think it will make sense to cooperate from time to time. Not sure this will work. For unknown reasons the harmony between bergwerk and me was not perfect in the past and bergwerks reactions today also showed it. He is always complaining without even knowing if someone rode tempo. Looked like celteam rode a lot late in the race, ATB rode quite a good amount early on for my team. I was open to ride in the end (ok also didn't say something but bergwerk was already in his jammer mode) and did ride in the end when CC made the attack.
Cooperate in a sense to keep the GC chances for both of us, not letting the classics gain 30 minutes, controlling the big CC, Donkey groups for big attack chances. Now with the TTT time and the bonus today I am more confident to help him early. But with bergwerks team I still see him in front, but with intact chances for Volta.

[bergwerk cycling]

Sight from my side:

It was a question from me, if Wild/Prachar/Borovicka have a chance today anyway!!!

I dont expected it, because some of the mountaineers attac for sure at the 8. Maybe it would happen if Volta and Pavel are not infront and works for themselves ... but this was more theoretical.
That Bear failed 2 times in following is not because he have not helpers^^ ...
he was fit and waited for the attac.

Cooperation?! from my side it worked - i rode the whole last tour with aad and he won nearly every stage. This first day the same ... so you really believe iam happy about it? So i don't see that the cooperation dont works ... I only expected more help yesterday.

I failed yesterday and the end was very unlucky for me.

[Robyklebt]

Steiner!

Early escape for Matisse, with the option of a Marquez attack in the Ordino. Downhill Marquez, the few flat km Matisse. Then hope Marquez comes through. Then the km I wanted to go, Celsius in, so forget that. Then after a sieb, waiting for the classics, ok, let's go with both, Marquez then helper for Steiner. Little advantage, didnt' think it would work, somehow it did. Yihaaa, Vuelta already saved, 2 jerseys, one hopefully till the end, white for Marquez, normally that should be rather easy to do.

GC now another 10" for Volta, Steiner even 38" on him. So 20" back for Volta, 1'09" for Steiner. And the general feeling in the peloton is that Baer doesn't have the best form, looks like he has a cold that might be resolved in September? Or maybe things already change by Thursday?

For me of course a perfect day, even if the attack was actually quite dumb. Number 3 in GC pretty clearly for the moment, but I probably would profit from more guys coming closer. Forza Bruhn and Hill!

[flockmastoR]

Very happy with my participation here already. Thought I am way too expensive for the little chances I thought I have in GC. Brought the TTT team instead of the second climber and was really thinking of a relaxed GT with letting bergwerk ride for his monster rider. Volta and Iwachnenko with there stages and the TTT as extra. Very surprising extra as I was expecting CC winning it and carrying red until the ITT.

Stage 3 was ok, riding a lot for a potential stage win and a chance to win time. In the end lost a lot to Steiner and won something on Baer, getting bonification and some seconds with the attack. Baer not even trying to follow Volta hung on the 2nd celt climber who was doing tempo and attacked at the same km. Donkey and CC in the escape, so not really willing to give them a chance. If other teams in escape, I would have thought about letting more space and probably motivating some other climber teams to ride. As it was it really was just me riding in the peloton. Bergwerk with the expected attempt to get rid of my helpers on the first mountain than letting me back to secure the Steiner win. Riding with Prachar there probably the better thing to do, as Donkey already mentioned in the chat, but wasn't totally sure to be able to get rid of Baer at that time. Him hanging on Szanyi strenghtens my believe that he really had form on Burgos but I can hardly believe that a manager would do that. Celteam with a lot of tempo on stage 2 but none on here. Horejsi didn't look too strong on stage 2, probably also form issues. Bruhn looked stronger, but L RSV off and just online for the finish.

Stage 4, one of just 2 possible hill sprints, the next one is today but with bigger chances of a Meisen comeback. Probably the reason for CC/taka to go for it and not be in escape again. Cooperation was fine, Mair started with off settings and also did some more green km when Avogadro joined. Much green and blue tempo by those two. Taka then getting rid of Kalman and Ohm, so no reason to ride for me between the two hills. Second hill the climber sieb and bergwerk and celt riding in front with their classics. A lot of downhill but was not threatening. Not much flat power in front and in the back I had deCoulumb and Celsius fit, Volta also was just helper for ~15km at that time, he could even win the IS, getting some money and 3s on other climbers. In the end it was Sievert->Prachar->Iwachnenko against Micalizzi->Eldenkönig->Park, Polters hanging on Iwachnenko. So Parks chances higher, but Eldenkönig did wait too long, Prachar and him starting on the same 50m switch, Prachar got back the lost meters and overtook Eldenkönig. Then decided to switch at 200m as it was the last potential winning launch for Park. Worked, and if he doesn't launch, Iwachnenko needs to launch himself from 150m. Not unlikely that there is still the chance to get him back when staying at Prachar. The gap was not too big as Prachar was still very strong there.

Let's see what happens today. Escape, HS or MS, will try to control the start and find a partner. Could be Meisen or Park. Depends who offers himself.

[Robyklebt]

Just deleted my almost finished long post... second try

Heart break for Ceroni. While Steiner shows his dick to Volta&Baer

Ceroni out, 24h after his first pro win. No comments from him this time, he already commented last time.
Steiner in the meantime got second, won 8" and 14" to Volta and Baer respectively. Unless there is a time penalty for his rude behaviour after the finish line, he stopped, took out his dick and waved it at Volta and Baer, when those 2 crossed the finish line.

GC now: Volta-Baer-Steiner-rest IMO.
Yes, Volta still 10" or so back, but with 2 riders more, more sprint, that makes him the favorite I think. Baer today did almost allright, just the last 2 km. Don't try to attack on the second last, Steiner blocked. Just ride there. And then don't foolishly try to follow Steiner in the last km, there attack yourself. Steiner is not in your league, my dear Teddy, you had no chance to follow Those 2 actions cost him 3 or more seconds I guess?

Anyway, GC now for me looks like Volta. But looks to be interesting. BW likes offence better than defence, but he could choose the ulta-defensive way too, let groups go, let them take the bonifications, hang on Volta. Risk there is that if he can't follow once, it's most likely over. Then it's on AAD to make sure it's for bonifications, but most likely he would get help from others there, celt, L, CC, the guys that would profit for stage wins if there's a standoff between the 2 in the final climb. Steiner potentially can benefit too of course, but he, or even more his team, will probably be covered more tightly by AAD now, after all he has 2 riders to spare, compared to BW. But think BW will try the attack at some point, but we'll see what happens now. Even with the same amount of riders probably a few days defensive would have been worth a try for BW, without IMO even more, but as I said, this BW likes to attack, and he's actually quite good at it too.

Losing 2 riders today clearly the biggest mistake BW made so far. IN the end in front he did ok, it's not easy to defend with a 85-86 that looks like an 87 vs 88-89 that look like 87. Considering that, he did well enough But losing 2 riders today? Sorry, that was so avoidable and in the end so stupid. At one point BW seemed to realize the danger and offered everybody one in tempo. 3 teams with 2+ riders, 4 teams with one? You need to talk to L and Schappy only at this point. CC was clearly showing he wanted the group out, AAD later on too, then YOU need to react. Go in red when in autotempo a start, but probably too late then. Schappy unlucky with off and his rider last, 10' or so back when he came on. Dropped the other 2 from the gruppetto, rode, caught up, BW maybe waited a bit there. But then start riding when they are back, saying you waited for him if you then dont' ride just makes it look like you hoped he would continue and pull everybody. Just talk with him and L. "Schappy, we wait, when you're back Pat goes in tempo, but please stay in too" If Schappy says no, just ride and don't wait, so normally he should agree to that. And to L a similar message, once Schappy is here, let's ride with 1each! Like this 1'15" to 1'56" lost and out, really unnecessary. And Donkey unhappy with Ceroni, even if he praised him in the previous post

This is like 1/3 of my previous post, had much nicer GC analysis!

[flockmastoR]

Would be mainly on your side if Baer would be still at 86 mountain. As it is now, all that counts for him also counts for Volta. One time not able to follow Baer, Volta is done and with a strong top 4 (Baer, Goodyear, Truelove, Wild) more likely he gets rid of Volta than the other way around (+ his guys also have more reg). Additionally, some climbers will be added to possible stage winners, Horejsi seemed in bad shape as well in August, Marquez might reach 85 mountain as well. Baer has potential to train mountain while Volta, Hill, Steiner might downtrain. So far I rode for stage wins because it was likely to gain boni on Baer. Didn't ride on stage 2 where I won the most, rode on stage 3 against Donkey and CC in escape got good second, Yesterday I rode first against bergwerk and L RSV in escape. So from what I saw until now, climber teams attack at HC stages and don't ride for the stage. CC rode for it yesterday and won, he will likely ride for it when he has topform in September, otherwise I don't expect many others to ride there.

So shift in strategy in September, cover bergwerk. Let him control and help him from time to time and hope Volta can stay with Baer (waiting for a chance to gain time), when he decides to defend from now on. When he decides to make it an open race, ok for that too, try to be in the escapes with my guys too. Think he has to decide if his chances in an open race against 2 Donkey climbers, and others are higher than in a defending race against Volta. But he can start with the defending strategy until the ITT is over and rethink.

Losing those 2 riders was stupid and avaidable. Lack of communication everywhere, also with the CC action (thinking there is a rest day, not riding together on the escape win day etc.)

[Robyklebt]

Steiner!

As for the GC, the Donkey realized he somehow either thought 6*3 was 24 or calculated with 8 difference... So the difference between Baer and Volta in the TT on paper should be 48". After today it's 47", so now Baer is back in front.
The Donkey meanwhile is in 7th heaven after Steiner's show so far. Not really ALL that impressive, just the result. Lucky today that Black Star did a thinking but not doing mistake, has happened to me countless times too. But it's better for the race if Steiner and Baer gain time no Volta, another 4-6" gained for Volta would be bad. Anyway, 7th heaven, I hope our parachutes work well, a fall down from there might be hard....

Mostly here to disagree (kind of) with AAD.
Others didn't ride for stage yet? But who should?
Horejsi 88 is a celtrider. Not always there, riding in what seems random moments at times. Ok, since the Vuelta 2 years ago I'm hard on him, he was so incredibly bad there... he has ridden nicely at times since then, but certainly not consitently. I tend to disregard celt in previews, he's a bit of a wild card, in between tempo when it doesn't seem to make much sense, early attacks that will fail and the occasional win, he's too unpredictable to take into account. So no tempo by him no problem, but he was in tempo at some point in a mountain stage I think.
Bergwerk? He's old, not stupid But he rode, just not for stage, but GC control.
That leaves 3 87, Volta who rode, and Hill, who rode. Of course Hill's way of riding can't be called collaboration, but he rode on that day. L for Bruhn didn't, but he's off a lot as well. Next Steiner, but with 4 riders at 87 even with his sprint he doesn't feel it's his job to make the team ride. Yes, he now did well twice from the peloton, winning the sprint today, getting second behind Hill the other day, but with 1 less there's always the risk that it doesn't work. If Volta evades the block 2 days ago, he ends up in front of Steiner most likely, either I risk following which can go both ways, or I attack myself and end up further back.
Funny enough the stage I somehow was most likely to win was stage 2 actually, if I just block "yes alone" with Steiner there... Who knows. But ok, I'll take the 2 stages after and the second place. 3" behind Volta, those annoying sprints by Volta, grrrr.. .won 3" once? And 20 points? Without those and the 10 points yesterday the awesome Steiner would be in red, now! Grrr. But as I said, I'm already ecstatic with how it went so far. Almost can't get any better.


Ah, one more thing, today, CC... the attack with Hill that never came. Instead a stupid "trick-attack", that would really have deserved a -1 in fairplay... Yes, not punishable, but let a guy drop back a second so that then you can attack with 3 guys on the same km... It's legal, but certainly against the spirit of the law, don't like it. At all. Blame Steiner's win for forgetting it temporarily when handing out fairplay votes. Big + for Black-Star for seeing it and blocking in time. +3 for him! But why not Hill there? Yes, obvious, perfect and only place for an early attack, still far, but why not? Nobody follows? Fanha-Hill ride up to Gronbech Micalizzi, then it's high tempo all the way. In the back BW-AAD can't afford to go with Celsius-Prachar or so yet, it's Ohm or even Sievert trying not to sieb Ohm. 30"+ seconds on top, and the flat power CC has in front can bring that up to close to a minute, before it starts going down again. And possibly caught in the climb, but losing another 20"... he's 2' back more or less now, taking into account the TT. Only Marquez follows? Nothing changes but perfect for me. Everybody follows? It's still good, he has 2 helpers, everybody else at 0, possibly Steiner and Baer have Marquez and Goodyear there, but less flat, only one helper, Hill still profits, and then it's for the stage. And in the back AAD being alone has to ride anyway. (Unless Prachar follows, then he can let it be and take the time loss to Hill, will be small. IMO was certainly worth a try to go with Hill there, and yes, only 2 riders. Maybe Fanha is followed by Lekubarri (forgot if he was there) Wild, Truelove, Prachar... then still nothing lost, just abort. SEemed worth a try to me.

[Robyklebt]

Aaaah, down again.

Losing 20" in a very stupid way... 11, didn't think they would all go, thought it would be on the 6%. So didn't bother blocking with Steiner, even took out his following a bit before, planned to put it back in for the 6%. So 10" and 10" bonifications lost, the time was very unnecessary. Just block with Steiner, but of course didn't want to do that so that I don't hurt his chances to follow on the 6%... and as I said, didn't think they would go. Think didn't even put Marquez in? But not sure, but ok, Marquez wouldn't have helped much, he had been helping Steiner before.

As for AAD, you talk about collaboration, but you yourself must realize you're far from the most cooperative guy around. First you put BW under pressure by going into the escape, which of course is ok, then you try to save your 2 flat guys, which I then didn't like much, seemed a bit like overdoing it. No cooperation from your side, but it's not necessarily needed either, nobody demands it. But if you are the guy who regularly complains a bit about others not collaborating it becomes a bit hypocritical.
I then chased too, no need for 9 AADs vs 4 Donkeys (thought Verkerk would stay, still don't know why he didn't, loser!)Then after the mountain Celt does his tempo, see last post... Wild and 2 of your guys in the back. You really could just ride there without him. Or ask after 50 km or so. No need for that after 10 or what it was. First the group was unlikely to be in trouble, second killing Avogadro wasn't hurting you, day off, third you had most to lose really. Yes, Pommes with 3 guys, but you rely on Pommes a lot on flat stages, he keeps the race controlled. Meisen out, you 7 riders and with Iwachnenko as best sprinter, it's guaranteed chaos, you can't control flat stages and then ride for GC with your team. Even losing Avogadro and the other one vs Wild rather hurts you more than BW, 6 vs 7 then then, you with almost no reg left. (I of course profit) Cooperation doesn't just mean others ride with you when you feel they should, sometimes could also be you riding for somebody else if it profits both of you, especially if the guy you want to ride is clearly already very low on energy. You simply could have ridden with Pommes, without making the whole fuss. As an interested but of course still 100% objective third party I'd say Bergwerk has been more cooperative than you so far. So before asking for cooperation here and there maybe show some on your part? Like 2 days ago in the gruppetto, show goodwill.

[flockmastoR]

Day before the rest day. Wasn't all that planned to let bergwerk ride, was hanging all my weaker riders on him and Ohm on Holgerson. Came on a bit late and saw Ohm in front and bergwerk riding. When he went out I paniced and attacked with my 2 weaker guys. Just put in one guy in green later would have been the better reaction. Just saw all the classics in front, wasn't really willing to ride in the back while riding in front for the stage win. But I had no clue that Schappy's guy was that weak, him being there with 2 riders not riding at all. So underestimated my chances in front. Attacked in the back to buy some time for thinking and probably be in the escape with 3 riders. Donkey going after it hardly, catching both before the hill. Then whoever did the big siebs (celteam) and continuing hard after it. All in all not too bad situation. Donkey just there with 3, bergwerk with 4, me with 5. Avogadro and Kalman in gruppetto, deCoulomb and Iwachnenko in the Donkey chasing group which looked like coming back early but the tempo in front even increased. After knowing that the gruppetto is not coming back, I asked bergwerk if he doesn't fear losing Wild. He simply said no. There is not much space for arguing. Him saying he will ride later on with Wild or he will send a rider back for the last 50km would be something completely different. Therefore I went out and felt bad for CreditPommes still trying to convince bergwerk that cooperation in gruppetto makes sense even if you fight each other before. Looks like I could convince him, cause in fact it also made sense for him to ride with Wild. He has 50reg, so no danger to have him unfit after the rest day, he will not be siebed early in the gruppetto, the gruppetto was never in danger when riding green all the way. So simple question: Why risk all others to stop (AGAIN as on stage 6). Funniest chat part when Donkey blamed me for the stage 6 gruppetto failure That put all his comments in the chat in a different light. Of course he is the guy that profits from us fighting each other.

Stage finish then went perfectly. Last stage Baer looked pretty strong gaining 5 or 6s on Volta in tempo at the +13. So thought I attack myself when no serious climber is in tempo. With all the hard tempo and less helpers in front, the second row of climbers should be very weak already. Celteam was in with his 85-61 guy, no leader blocking. Thought Baer attacking himself or on me, thought Hill on me, hoped to finish with them together, but winning time against Hill was surprising me after that stage. Baer not gaining back time at the +2 and Baer not attacking himself at the +6 cost him another second. Volta with the second stage win and gaining time on Baer and Steiner. 54" on Baer could keep him in red after the ITT.

[Robyklebt]

Funniest chat part when Donkey blamed me for the stage 6 gruppetto failure That put all his comments in the chat in a different light. Of course he is the guy that profits from us fighting each other

Indeed. It was hilariously funny, we all laughed for at least an hour! Except that didn't happen of course.

Big Donkey(15:45): Of course you were involved!
CircleCycle / r TAKA(15:44): bw and schappy love to suck it's simple
Alive And Dead(15:44): I was not involved in your gruppetto disaster the other day
Big Donkey(15:44): More you IMO.
Alive And Dead(15:43): bad taka influence maybe ^^
Big Donkey(15:43): But you are to blame for that, no?
Alive And Dead(15:43): just cooperate, saving Meisen/my 2 guys/ Wild would make sense, but looks like in this tour not even that is possible

AAD, "not even that possible in this tour" not referencing Gruppetto work but tour in general. Making it rather clear he didn't mean specifically Gruppetto with his next contribution. Taka's influence? Gruppetto failure IN the gruppetto had nothing to do with Taka. So my answer, genially blaming you, was in general too, not gruppetto specific.

Look, it's just that often your talk doesn't match your action. Reminds me a bit of that 3 days in Vietnam a few years back. 3 team race. Stage 1 you attack at km 1 or maybe 10 very early. Berryberry, who was the GC favorite, but not super clear, I think we both had classics who could hope to come back on Day 3, attacks with 2 a bit later. Big Donkey who like you really prefers controlled races than chaos then adapts. Even if I think I was the favorite for stage 1, I wasn't going to be the Hampelmann riding the whole stage alone vs 2 teams. And attacked wildly, 4 or 5 riders. You the weren't happy, why can't we have a normal race? Well, if 2 of the 3 teams attack early... Why dou you expect team 3 to be the one making sure we have a normal race? It would almost guarantee team 3 to get fucked.

It's a bit the same here, why is there so little cooperation? Well, look at yourself too, as I said you in general are simply not the most cooperative manager around 86 vs 81 sprint, yes, for the rest? Not too eager to cooperate mostly. Which is ok, but then at least don't go on "cooperation please" sermons. Not even saying you should cooperate with BW now, use the 2 riders advantage is fully ok. But then almost forcing BW to ride when it wouldn't hurt you to ride for him there. He then rode, but was that cooperation or riding under threat? For cooperation it would have been more cooperative if you rode alone actually. Show respect to rider who rode is lungs out.

Big D. btw had made it pretty clear that he is in uncooperative mode this Vuelta. 86 vs a bunch of 87+. And after the disaster the other day I'm absolutely not eager to wait for anybody in the gruppetto either. But then I'm not asking others to ride at the first opportunity either, for BW at some point riding in my group IMO would have made sense. But ok, the Donks were ok trying alone.

[flockmastoR]

Alive And Dead(15:43): just cooperate, saving Meisen/my 2 guys/ Wild would make sense, but looks like in this tour not even that is possible

Sry but that speaks for itself it is 100% related to the gruppetto cooperation. And yes, I am complaining about no cooperation and doing the same. Fair point. I was not involved in the gruppetto failure (ok you didn't blame me for it), it will not become true if you repeat it. I did the sieb but the gruppetto never was in danger if the managers decide to ride for their riders. I stopped in front and CC/taka continued (thinking there is a rest day following). I rejoined tempo late in the stage to not allow stage hunters win the stage where Volta had topform. So I was not involved in the gruppetto failure.

And to your Hanoi memories, Berry was the GC favorite, you were the stage favorite, I had clear stage #2 and GC #2 riders (Oetker without form vs much stronger Trump with form). If someone can escape in this 3 teams tour on stage 1, it logically is me. Looks like you expected all rolling for the Löffel win. Berry than attacked himself, you attacked with 3+ riders incl. Löffel. I might have critizised berry for creating the situation, but I was ok when he through away his (in retrospective) easy GC win. It was a Fortnow vs Löffel fight than on the last stage that Löffel won.

I am very cooperative in general, because I know that in the long run I profit from it and as you I prefer controlled races (probably even more). See Giro where I cooperate with CC, with FL and CreditPommes, depending on the situation. Many other situations at Dec and January tour with CC, Quick, you name it. Of course you can pick some races (in your opinion Hanoi, the +3 finish stage somewhere where I attacked with having Tesla and Iwachnenko against Ganna?!, some more) but is that really enough to say I am "not too eager to cooperate mostly"? Wanted to cooperate with other classic teams at the Giro that prefer to attack, wanted to cooperate with other climber teams here that prefer to attack (CC, L RSV, Donkey). I am familiar beeing the Hampelmann myself.

[Robyklebt]

Then why Taka's influence in the next sentence? He was very marginally involved in the Gruppetto not riding. One rider, others with 2 and 3, not his job to start early. So why his influence if you were purely talking about the gruppetto? Because he clearly rode (at least my impression) to eliminate the gruppetto?

And no, I wasn't blaming you for the gruppetto failure, repeating it doesn't make it true. (you say ok I didn't blame you, but repeating doesn't make it true, don't really get it, so I say the same ) It was about cooperation in general. But of course you were involved in the gruppetto out of time too, the tempo. Marginally involved still is involved. Volta topform earlier anyway, no? And you didn't win the stage either.... Tempo there for more energy advantage vs Baer (flat, including form) or safety, but safety green would have been ok for that. Third option to kick out the gruppetto. Whichever it is, with the tempo you were involved. But the blame wasn't about that.

As for your cooperation skills... remember when you were upset that I called a win of yours a typical AAD win, no tempo, win? You said it wasn't true, that we should stop saying that. But somebody, Quick I think, seemed as surprised as me when you claimed that more often than not you ride for your sprint wins. You just seem to see yourself in tempo more often than others do maybe. Perception, now which one is correct is another question. I think mine, you probably yours.

You want cooperation with CC/BD/L? Yes of course, but that's exactly the kind of cooperation you always want. Who has by far the best chances in GC? AAD, then BD, then CC, then L.
Stages? AAD, then the 3 others. 52 sprint, Bruhn the same but the 53 flat hurt, 60 flat helps CC to win solo, but in sprints he'll lose almost each time. 53 sprint for Steiner helps him, but 86 put him at risk not to be there for sprints, and in uphill sprints then he's not stronger than Volta anymore either. So really you're the guy who gets the most advantages from cooperation, GC help and you have the biggest chances to win a stage (although not by much)
Would you cooperate with Volta if you had Hill? Bruhn? Steiner? Right from the start? Probably not is my guess. At some point, maybe. But from the start normally you shouldn't, I said you don't cooperate much, not you're stupid. Like not cooperating with Payot for his stage wins, cooperating there would be stupid., stage wins bonis, threat to rosa. Same here with Bruhn Hill Steiner at the start of the Vuelta. Once GC is gone, attempt for a stage, why not? But as long as you have GC hopes, you need to distance Volta, Baer (Steiner too!), it makes little sense too cooperate too much for these 3. Always depending on weather, mood, general fitness of the manager, strategy for the day etc. For you of course it makes sense to cooperate with these 3. For them much less. Not 0, but with Baer that normally should cooperate with you... you 2 don't seem to need more cooperation, after all we want to beat you.

As for Hanoi: You blamed Berry most, right, so did I, but after that you blamed me, to which I answered with look at yourself. SEe below why:

As for

Looks like you expected all rolling for the Löffel win.

As for this, were did you get this ridiculous idea from? Maybe extrapolating from your expectations (see CC/BD/L that collaborate for smaller stage chances than you and minimal GC chances)? Looks like it. Mine of course completely different. If we have a 3 team tour, which is going to be shitty anyway, then maybe there is no need to attack at km 1 on day 1. Especially not if one of the 3 teams is berryberry, who wasn't known for any great tactics, or riding for his chances. Or any kind of predictability outside his refusal to speak english and saying "for me it's only a game". In the end it's about respect for both the race and your opponents. Going at km 1 in a 3 man race, even if it wasn't long, checked now, 127km... just wait for km 20 or so, it still will make the stage favorite work a lot. Cooperation for controlled race if you want one. By attacking later. But of course you can go at km 1, but then if berry goes at km 8, I will throw out any control ideas out of the window too, and agree, let's go to chaos. No berry attack, and I just control, right. But first you at km 1 and then berry at km 8? Then I react. And then while berry gets most of the blame I don't see me having more blame than you, which is what you claimed in the heat of the moment. I react to the general atmosphere, and am to "blame" as much as you of course, but why more? You expect me to ride with 7 riders (6, Bieri almost doesn't count) vs 14 or so opponents (all riders minus climbers and sprinters)
To your credit or miscredit, if that's a word, on stage 2 then you went into full cooperation mode, which actually was weird, by then IMO we should have continued full GC chaos mode, Fortnow flat tries to gain time on my team (that possibly was dead from the day before, don't remember at all, but seems possible) But yeah, then you showed that you like control (again, after stage 1 in your position I wouldn't) not sure why though, just try the GC win then.

Anyway, the forcing of Wild in tempo yesterday is not cooperation, it's somehow lack of respect for the opponent, he just rode like a maniac to keep you and a group under control, and instead of just riding, you really didn't need him, you have to demand him in tempo pretty soon, you had more to lose in the gruppetto, just carry the poor guy. Respect him a bit. And if you want to force him into tempo at least wait a few more km, when you'd be forced to use the other guy who could end up under reg today....


Ok, as for today, BAER clearly doesn't like cooperation at all. Dominating us like that, almost like Indurain and Vingegaard. Scandalous. 16" more than predicted on Volta, 13" more on STeiner, while others like Bruhn, Hill and also Horejsi and Marquez rode even worse than Volta-Steiner.
Now it's what we already knew before the TT, a duel between Baer and Volta, just with Baer more ahead than we thought the last days, but less than we thought at the start, thanks to his Burgos love, and Steiner in third position. The 2 other 87 on the other hand now might have more freedom to attack from far, Baer/Volta can let them win a minute, 1'30", without having to worry yet. Steiner not, if he wants third place, but he might not want that, might still dream about first place. Might. Normally he himself shouldn't get as much freedom to attack as the 2 further behind, but who knows, he's been lucky so far, I hope it continues!

Anyway, can announce already that I don't plan to cooperate neither tomorrow nor the day after. Mountain top arrival that seems made for Baer if it was about form today, and more for Volta than Steiner if it wasn't. And the day after Verkerk doesn't like his chances either!

[flockmastoR]

First, it was the Volta topform stage, I rode for it and lost (too much blocking there where I would have been just fine to follow Baer or Hill). I also was "just" riding green and blue in between with Celsius. My riding was never intended to get rid of the gruppetto. The moment I rejoined the tempo in front, the damage already was done, ok there was this short moment where Taka realised that tomorrow there is not rest day, than there was another attack and the distance to the goal didn't allow to go out there if riding for stage. Than I was riding and taka joined again, he went red, me later green. As I had no rider in the gruppetto, I really didn't check the time there. Taka seemed to be pissed as he rode first and the teams with more riders didn't join. Probably it was his intention to force them to ride, but with losing a rider for your sitted team, I doubt that. So IMO taka was involved much more, involved as having a rider in the back + riding far more hard tempo in front.

Would I cooperate when having Hill against Volta? Well I would late or not at all, but I doubt I would be in escape in every possible HC finish. And here I don't mean the "logical" stages where CC puts riders in the groups to prepare something, but the boring ________/ Vuelta stages. This is just really annoying me, similar with situations and other teams.

And the Hanoi thing, I really was confident to beat Löffel with Detreköi on Fortnow's side. Anyway when we still talk about that 3 manager stage race 2,5 years later it probably wasn't that shitty, or it was even shittier.

Anyway, lost red now on stage 10 after having it since stage 1. 9s is really nothing. If we put our teams together, we have a competetive team, me more for early control, bergwerk more for late control. But looking at my team and the harder stages, I think it is better that bergwerk has the red for the moment. On stage 3 bergwerk desperately tried to get rid of Prachar to isolate Volta and then waited for Celsius/Sievert, if he continues to ride like that my early controlling motivation will be lowered. Let's see, tomorrow I will ride for stage.

[Robyklebt]

Of course it was shitty. Only saving grace was Löffel winning!

And I'm against you riding for stage tomorrow. Long live escapes! Ceroni! Ah no, Vanuytsel then! Or Henri, before he too goes home one of these days.

And really, you didn't have topform on the stage Steiner won with the weirdly working attack from the previous mountain? because there in the sprint you looked really incredibly strong in the back. I was convinced you had topform there, like me.
Ha, you even wrote it like that in the chat!

Alive And Dead(16:47): think Hill has 100 today, Volta had it on stage 3

Sherlock Donkey doesn't forget. Either you were mistaken then or now!

Was just going to ask you to tell us your September form. but since you seem to have trouble getting it right, now I won't!

[Robyklebt]

Ah, and only saw that CC wrote stuff in the chat now

CircleCycle(14:35): hi grumpy cc back. Hill won a stage, nice, still not happy to ride here.

After having had a wild evening sitter to challenge our calm races, you better continue.

CircleCycle(14:36): not sure I will show up for lot of remaining stages

GC looks worse after today's TT, but that gives you more freedom in attacks... race situation not a good reason not to show up!

CircleCycle(14:43): uh, how did we lose some riders here?

Stage 6: AAD was involved

62. 00:46:15 Dat Qua (L RSV)
63. 00:46:15 Trieu Cao (L RSV)
64. 00:46:15 Sjaak Cobus (CreditPommes)
65. 00:46:15 Jakub Tymovy (celteam)
66. 00:46:18 Roger Moore (bergwerk)
67. 00:46:37 Elina Switolina (Schappy)
68. 00:46:37 Karl Mayr (CircleCycle)
69. 00:46:37 Nadija Belkina (Schappy)
70. 00:46:37 Leonardo Ceroni (Big Donkey)
71. 00:46:56 Pat Connemara (bergwerk)
72. 00:46:56 Andreas Klosterhalfen (Schappy)

Early sieb km 30, I guess by AAD? But didn't actually see it. Oh, he says so himself somewhere in this thread. The riders that missed the time cut were dropped there. Mayr in tempo, after a while he asks if none of us interested. Of course Ceroni was, so in tempo red too. Hadn't realized there was a sieb before. Moore rides alone not far behind the peloton, becomes clear he won't reach it, I tell him to wait and ride together. He waits, Mayr stops, Ceroni keeps red, at some point BW goes green. My goal was to stay close to AAD to force him to keep riding, his goal was to force BW to ride, BW green, which wasn't helping my plan, I then stopped completely. So did green BW then. And a bit later AAD in front. But CircleTaka took over, in what looked like an effort to kick us out, but can't guarantee it was that. Belkina of Schappy then was 10 min further back, with Schappy offline. L and BW 2 riders in the group, did nothing. Schappy came on, dropped his 2 riders to bring Belkina to the front, 32' then, he kept it roughly at taht when he reached the group and stopped. BW when he first realized the danger, thought waiting for Schappy good. Which it was, but then on the other hand Schappy has tendency to have lots of riders in the gruppetto without contributing, so not sure it's a good idea to wait for him without assuring his later collaboration. Schappy back, BW then had the great idea of "everybody 1 in tempo" which of course I immediately refused. Ceroni, in escape with Pat and Belkina the day before, with quite a long red chasing session was already pretty down on energy, let BW and L (especially L really, fitness) and Schappy do the work. If I ride now I'll be the first to drop despite my superior mountain. BW then decided that was no good, all or nothing, then autotempo, everybody happily green, then at least in the climb I tried red, others finally joined, but was too late by 1'-2' as you can see.
So CTaka riding a lot in front, L not doing anything, BW torn between waiting then wanting collaboration ended up doing nothing, Schappy once reaching the group thinking more not necessary and that was it. Everybody else logically not working with their single rider because then the risk would be that in autotempo the fit ones drop us and the double represented teams save 1 or even 2, while we lose ours.
Result as you see, Ceroni ended at 0 energy, so he couldn't really ride more. Belkina too according to the chat, the rest had energy to spare, that they preferred to keep for some imaginary race the next day.

CircleCycle / r TAKA(16:40): CC wanted all his riders gone, so losing one is succesful sitting

He has a point actually!

CircleCycle(14:54): well for the 1mio money loss, I will get a least some fun now

That sounds bad... I hope fun involves carrying Steiner to the GC win!

[flockmastoR]

Can I add one more quote please

CircleCycle / r TAKA(16:31): CC is right to hate you

[flockmastoR]

Second week started with the individual TT. Plan was to gain as much time before on Baer to be in striking distance after the ITT. With 9s after the TT that was achieved. But now Volta needs some time gain, meaning riding for stages to have the chance for bonifications.

Stage 11: Middle long stage, just a short final climb. Perfect for trying to win back some time/go for the stage win. CC with 2, L RSV with 2, Donkey and Pommes with 1 guy in the escape. Teams with good climbers, so the motivation to go for the stage increased. Green right from the start, keep them close to be able to ride green for most of the stage and save some power. A bit expected, CC attacked with Fanha and Micalizzi on the small hill when the group was close. Ohm also hanging there as plan B. Then the tempo increased and bw also chased a lot. Group was no danger like this. On the final climb Hill, Horejsi, Szanyi attacked after the first sieb at the +5 when the leader group waited for the classics. The next 3km Goodyear and Volta in late for blocking/trying to keep them close. Last km Baer attacked, Volta decided to just follow him and beat him in the sprint, but Baer very strong winning the sprint in that group. For Volta it was good that the trio was still ahead, so Hill won the stage and Volta didn't lose time on Baer. Goal was to win time, but ok like this, Baer seemed to have topform already here or at the TT.

Stage 12: sprinters stage, unfortunately some fight for the IS/Bonifications weakened deCoulumb and just before he wanted to rejoin, the winning group around Pan and Gurriwiwi attacked. In the end I still think by putting in Sebredo earlier, we would have been able to catch them back. There was no danger left in the peloton and the mass would block anyway. Like it was Sebredo pushed us out for the final kms and we lost by 2s. The sprint behind was close, but only because Meisen already sprinted from 150m (which IMO wasn't necessary with Iwachnenko having Park in the wheel).

Stage 13: Queen stage of this years Vuelta with a solo win by Volta. Many climbs and another hard stage at the next day. So highly GC relevant stage. But it was rather short and ok-ish to controll. Volta still 9s back before the stage. bw who already lost 2 riders with the team to control the end, me trying to control the first half. Race started with a sieb on the first km but we could bring back Kalman and Avogadro pretty soon with Avogadros downhill skills. Then we decided to keep riding the downhill with Avogadro in green. Pretty clear that Avogadro and Kalman are useless at/after the Ausbisque so not giving someone the chance to bring 60-80s there on top. Ausbisque was riden by Iwachnenko then with some help by bergwerk (Hunter?). Late sieb on top but we could bring back deCoulumb how then took over the pace. Col the Spandelles was then planned to put in Celsius at some point to have Celsius/Sievert/Prachar/Volta for the final. Some harder sieb there in the middle of the climb (Schappy or CC) followed by a Fanha/Costello double attack 6km to the top. So classics in, Hill/Bruhn/Marquez joined the top some km later but did all not look too dangerous, very late to the top, a lot of downhill/very long last climb. In the back bw went in with Goodyear right after the Hill attack and then continued with Wild. So just Prachar in the first group with Celsius/Sievert riding ~15s behind that group. In the back celteam also chased and some groups got reunited, even Ohm was coming back and took over the pace with some bw and celteam riders. Looked all not too bad to catch the Hill/Marquez group back on the Tourmalet but was very much depending on how the 2 climber teams decide to ride that. Gap went down to ~35s or even less before the final climb and then of course started to increase again when the 2 climbers (Bruhn dropped back in the downhill). At the Tourmalet celteam rode with his second climber until km 122, there he went out of tempo short before the km change. Volta was still following Baer at that time, so Volta jumped into tempo. Wanted to unfollow Baer but was too late for it, so Volta blocking, Horejsi attacking, Baer and Volta following his attack, Brilliant A&D self block. Steiner winning an energy advantage. After that some Goodyear/Volta/Steiner blocks and finally Horejsi and Volta attacked at the +9 4km to the goal. Baer following Horejsi but 2s behind Volta who could increase his gap, catch up Hill/Marquez and win the stage and red (9s + 10s Bonification).

Stage 14: Back-to-back HC stage. Similar but with a long flat part before the first mountains. Makes it way harder to controll. Team was ok-ish fit. CC with 3 riders + late donkey with 2 flat riders. Not what I wanted with the longish rather flat part between Larrau and the final climb. So decided to risk Avogadro and Kalman right before the Hourcere, keep them as close as possible and catch them before the top of the Larrau. Worked pretty fine, could have even giving them some more space but why risk too much. With bw back now he might just join the attack at the Larrau. So similar strategie Avodagro/Kalman until the Hourcere, Iwachnencko/deCoulumb until the Larrau, Ohm for the start of the Larrau and the 2 weak classics when they are siebed. Good helper management to bring back my dropped riders to the gruppetto to always have someone riding in green there. Still a bit annoyed that nobody else rode there. With Avogadro and Kalman already close to 0 was always in danger to lose them. But ok Pommes was off he would have helped for Meisen for sure, celteam and L RSV could have helped. Think CC helped late with just having one guy there. Celteam than attacked with his 2 classics at km 99 (11km before the top) followed by a sieb of his climber. Volta isolated, bergwerk with his 2 climbers, rest of the classics dropped. Celteam to go for the stage with this, weakening his possible followers Volta/Baer. All my 3 classics behind, Prachar riding the downhill early to keep in distance, was thinking about dropping Volta every 30s, still think would have been a good idea, gain a helper advantage, the group was not far back but I feared the bw classics attacking to reach the top and that those 2 could keep me back. KM 131 Celsius/Sievert/Prachar reached the top group again. With another 8 following, celsius blocked the first km after it. Then we decided to let it be hang on the celteam classics who seemed to be very interested in the stage. Then on km 136 Wild attack, Truelove attack with Lekubarri/Hill in the wheel. Hill already rode tempo for mountain points and sprinted for IS. Donkey and bergwerk wanting to save their classics. Celteam in then but with an attack of his 2 classics right before the +8, 2 A&D guys hanging, the other one riding the last km before the +8 in blue, then the climbers sieb and Prachar dropping back to pull Votla back to Celsius. Celteam taking over the pace but the farmer cost a lot of time on Hill who already went for the stage in the flat. Celteam then attacking out of tempo on a ealry +3 km. All relevant climbers hanging, Horejsi throwing away some of his energy advantage. Then he continued with Borovicka who also attacked the same km. First steep km (149) Steiner attacked but Volta blocked him Baer not even able to follow Steiner, Steiner not able to get away. Some more tempo/blocks by Volta and Steiner. Final attack by Volta at km 153 with just Horejsi following. Steiner and Baer behind put could be kept at 5s. Hill with a very unusual win (21s in front of Volta). Volta without much energy left to spend was not following Horejsi and not sprinting getting place 3 and some more seconds.

Stage 15: A&D drinking whine and Mobster with a superb sitting performance. Another 22s on Baer, winning green back. Bergwerk not going for the first stage win but trying to use his riders for a Baer trial. Even with a km out of tempo there was no doubt Volta will not lose time there.

GC now Volta leading by 41s, Steiner another 21s behind Baer. Hard stages to come for the final week. Let's see. Until now the Vuelta went pretty fine. Never thought to be in such a position. But now all possible cooperation partners are gone. Baer needs a bigger gain. Steiner also needs some time on Baer (in case the 2 are attacking Volta) but 21s can be compensated easier.

[Robyklebt]

Lots of second places for me, 3, but only 1 really looked close, Gurruwiwi vs Pan.
Rest... Tourmalet, not following the first attack, but trying, that cost energy too, but after that I was rather optimistic, thought next time Steiner can follow Volta. He couldn't. So finally 2nd place after getting the others back in the last km, 7" behind Volta, far back. Depressing, really hoped to follow and suck there. Argh. But ok, 1 km tempo for some mountain points, which almost assured me to keep it till today (but then Hill had other ideas the next day) and the attempted following probably the difference. Or maybe with that km I follow the first time but then not the second time? So Tourmalet not bad, second, but lost 11" to the one that counts. And that has been Volta for a while now.

Next day, cool Hill win, ridiculous as well, that was a celt masterpiece, for those that are still unsure why I hold him in such low regards as a manager. The farmer can still sort of make sense, although not really either. Of course Marquez was going to try to sieb the classics, Lekubarri drop back. And ride. Then Volta is isolated, Horejsi not, Baer not, Steiner not. The sieb made little sense, 2 helpers instead of one, but he benefits more vs Volta with 1 vs 0. The attack on the 3 then even worse, but at this point almost irrelevant. Could/Should have been Horejsi vs Volta for the win, then maybe Volta sprints, who knows, but maybe it's a nice win for Celt.
Attack with Henri+Gurruwiwi of course was with an eye to the flat part, Gurruwiwi on flat, full power, downhill then problematic. Not sure why Henri was there, that was supposed to be Vanuytsel or Matisse. Couldn't decide and went for Henri maybe? Not sure, anyway, for some reason Henri went. Blah.

Yesterday, Vanuystel mostly there for money/stage, the GC attack of course was planned too, but with Lekubarri later, And then if necessary of course Isidoor can drop and help as well., but depending on how it went in the back last climb attempt an option too, so Isidoor mostly for stage. So no help for Marquez, but Lekubarri fit. Except that he was at 921 at some point, far into the race. Why? Ah, I was helping Henri. Idiot. The Baer attack then was good, I gave up on the Lekubarri-Steiner attempt one km earlier, Avogadro in tempo at 3, as I feared Mobster is not a complete idiot and covers the dangerous km.... (although IMO covering a few km earlier would have been even safer). So went reading the news again, missed the 7, and saw Baer-Wild... Avogadro out, colleague shows up at Mobsiplace, so no OHm in, ideal situation. BW/TTV then didn't handle it that well, tempo out with Wild, was at 1" it seemed, he read 10", out, of course that hurt, with Wild there it's dangerous. Then letting drop both guys from the front, just one here! Then let the other wait on top of the second climb of this same hill. Then loses time against the back, but won't lose THAT much later, maybe still not enough after the Wild debacle, but chances there. Of course I should have looked that km and go too, but well, if Volta wasn't on Baer then maybe he was on me, so ok not to try, would have tried red of course, hoping that Volta was unfit from the day before, but with the low tempo probably fit again anyway (Steiner started at 980 too) In front Gronbech then dominates Isidoor, which is ok, since I didn't bring a puller, lucky with second place, he could just have gone with Elden, win, and then get second with Gronbech.

GC now, over a minute back, but will still try of course, not sure how and when (well when pretty obvious, not on flat stages) Baer clearly now an ally, so is Hill, but maybe more for Marquez, which won't result in the GC win either, but ok, we'll see. Volta can't count on much help, but help is possible, Celt for stage, Hill for stage if he for once isn't hanging out in front. BW and Donks seem more unlikely.

Mountain, gone, doubt it will be back, Steiner is not that interested anymore already, plus even if he was, 87 vs 86 favors Hill.
Green interesting, looks more like Hill than Volta right now. Hill can say fuck it and get points at intermediates, something Volta is less likely to do, Hill can do nothing but hang in the back, and beat Volta in the last kms, Hill can go early and if nobody dangerous hangs Volta can let him win with 30"-1' without having to lose sleep later.

But the only important jersey might be the youth jersey anyway Marquez still big favorite.