Vuelta 2023 - 15h

[Robyklebt]

Steiner won both rest days it seems!
And as I suspected, the mathematician can't do simple arithmetic. 31" between Baer and Steiner.

[flockmastoR]

Steiner won both rest days it seems!
And as I suspected, the mathematician can't do simple arithmetic. 31" between Baer and Steiner.

Volta was ok fit (started ~960) but if Mobster hung him on Steiner, noone knows but him. Let's see if the training night changes something before the last important stages.

[flockmastoR]

Stage 16
Last week of the Vuelta started with a pretty boring HC finish, totally flat and a short final climb. Nothing where Volta can fear much but also nothing where a time gain is expected. So save the energy for the next 2 hard stages and let a group through. CC attacked with Fanha and Eldenkönig, bergwerk followed some km later with Hunter and Holiday and was regreting it very fast. Group worked well, celteam had interest in the stage after A&D made clear it is not interested. So calm stage. the guys in front need to ride and are not all fit for tomorrow and in the back we could concentrate on the fight for place 3. On the last short climb celteam took over the pace with his second climber Szanyi riding the +11 and +8, than no tempo at the +4 were Hill attacked blue and won in the back. Volta finished 5th and gained another second on Baer and Steiner.

Stage 17
First of the last 2 hard back to back mountain stages starting with a long flat part. Controlling that would mean risking at least 2 riders for the next day, so we decided to hang sent Avogadro into the escape. Luckily no bergwerk and celteam guy in the escape, and after some tempo of bw and an escape that was covered by Ohm, celteam rode in the back to catch back bw and Ohm. After that bw took over the pace and kept the gap small on the group with Micalizzi, Gronbech, Holgerson (CC), Magritte, Vanuytsel (Big Donkey), Avogadro (A&D), Dschyma, Merkushyna (Schappy). At the first climb first celteam siebed, then Donkey siebed and attacked with Marquez and Steiner with Hill in the wheel. In the peloton A&D was waiting for deCoulomb and was dropping Avogadro resulting in a fast 2 minutes gap for the climbers and Steiner in virtually lead. Avogadro and later deCoulumb rode in the peloton and Volta dropped all classics at the start of the Alto del Cordal, Prachar continued the pace. In front Marquez took over and increased the gap at again over 2min. A&D was hoping for some cooperation of celteam for the stage but Prachar was alone in tempo until the start of the final climb Altu del Angliru. There Szanyi made the pace. In the final very steep km Volta joined the tempo and the gap fell drastically, soon he was back in virtual red. But then he decided to take some km rest (not too clever) to not lose too much to Baer. But the fear was not justified as Baer was still weaker than Volta at the km of the attack. Additionally, Steiner won the stage gaining another 10s, he was 24s behind Volta after the stage.

Stage 18
Whole A&D team fit on the start, Kalman was sent to the group, but it didn't look like a good decision. So we kept the group close aiming to catch them at the Puerto de San Lorenzo. So Avogadro rode until the Estacas. There Horejsi made a sieb and continued some km with his riders dropped from the group. Kalman was dropped back and rode together with deCoulumb to reach the San Lorenzo with about 1 minute to the group. But Holgerson was quite strong in front and also tricked us into going green for a km before the climb. So Vanuytsel was still hanging in front when Marquez made a sieb dropping all helpers of Volta and kept them away with Vanuytsel. Prachar and Sievert with the comeback at the Tenebredo. Ohm/Celsius/Iwachnenko siebed there trying to come back. But CC took over the pace and later attacked with Fanha and Costello also having Wild and 2 celteam riders in the wheel. the group had about 1:30 before the first Puerto de la Cruz climb. From there Prachar toop over but was siebed several times. In the end he managed a delayed comeback close to the final climb. Volta had many km without a helper but the situation looked ok with Prachar still very fit and the last mountain that can be blocked by Volta. Horejsi won the stage, Baer second won 5+ some Boni on Volta who finished 3rd and gained 1s + boni on Steiner. So GC before the last 3 stages as follows: 1. Volta, 2. Steiner (30s), 3. Baer (36s), Hill best of the rest with 1:17

[Robyklebt]

Very good 3 days for me, but well, it won't be enough.

16, losing 1" is brilliant, like it.
17: Didn't think would work, was so obvious what I was planning to do, everybody knew it, thought for sure it wouldn't work, it did. Sometimes over the years I've probably grown too scared, sometimes just trying even if normally it won't work is enough.
AAD with good defence, annoyingly energy saving, hate that, he was supposed to use his riders, it was first BW then later some Celt too that did it. All fit for 18, scandalous. Most annoying thing of course is that AAD himself probably would ride 0 meters as BW and as Celt not too much either. Grr. All fit, horrible. Didn't think all would be fit, but many fit, some fittish. But AAD did what he had to do, can't complain. Maybe blocking the attacking hill with Prachar would have made sense, so that the advantage is smaller there, then ride with Sievert up, possibly down. But in the end like this worked well enough for him, Steiner still at 24". Steiner of course was ruthless and stole HIll's stage, normally should leave it to him. But a) he won more than enough already. b) He comes sort of back in GC too, with Volta now having to concentrate on Steiner and Baer, at 1' back Hill is not out, not with 18 coming. So he benefits as well, less than me, but at this point he can't really claim to have 0 GC interests anymore either. c) He stole Steiner's mountain jersey!!Which is ok. But he's stealing Volta's green jersey too. See a), it not like he lacks success. No regrets in stealing a stage for the Donks.
18) Isidoor not too unfit, still usable, but the stage wasn't going to be easy to attack. Here Volta can be under reg, makes the defense easier. And he can follow Steiner early. Plan was 1 or 2 guys in escape, Isidoor/Gurruwiwi. See what happens. Jump behind difficult, but with Lekubarri ,why not. If those ahead won't be useful, try with a double Lekubarri-Steiner in the first ascent of the final climb? Here AAD IMO covered the groups too closely, he invited the sieb on the San Lorenzo, then 0 helpers, while Steiner has Marquez and Isidoor, making tempo though poor Isidoor. Of course I somehow forgot to put helping in, so it was all for nothing, was weakening Volta AND Steiner... Donkey=Depp. Just leave a bit more advantage and this sieb thing doesn't make sense anymore. Too far. Or make sure to get them in the climb. Same thing later with CC, but he only rode till the intermediate. Twice putting the group in perfect position for siebs and ride with the guys ahead.
Final climb too, maybe too defensive, but ok, couldn't know Steiner was unfitter than Volta... with proper helping he wouldn't be. Fought twice probably, one Horejsi early, one Volta later, the Volta probably wouldn't be a fight with proper helping before. Or a smaller one. Anyway, strong Horejsi, deserved stage, Donks losing 6" to Volta, very nice for me. At least at the bottom of the last climb, where I thought I risk losing more, risky for kms without blocking too.

In the back, anti Avogadro. Yes. But in a way was the same as the day BW lost his 2 riders. And me Ceroni. Grrr. That day AAD rode to make BW ride in the back. Which BW then didn't, grrr. This time it was let Avogadro ride in the back. And if he doesn't want, let others drop back and ride. Same thing in the end. As you say yourself, you always meet twice. I was ready to join pretty fast. If BW had decided to wait, ok I wait, he was unsure, so I went in to make sure you keep riding. In my case a "Avogadro will keep riding in the gruppetto when he reaches it, would have been enough to make me wait, that offer never came, so I was more than happy to ride in that gruppetto with others and let you destroy your team in the gruppetto. It really is virtually the same as what happened when our group missed the time cut, except that you rode, unlike BW, so you clearly reacted better to it than he did (Ceroni ended the race on 0, so he rode what he could) It's a bit hypocritical to complain now really. Because yes, you still were involved in that debacle the other day, not decisive, that was CC and the lack of tempo by BW, L and Schappy mostly, but still involved. Yesterday then we managed to get a gruppetto riding without you, benefit of having you ride hard in the back using more energy. Exactly what your goal was that day long ago.

Anyway, Volta still favorite, Steiner at 30" but with 85 vs 87.... not easy to drop him. Baer at 87 is at 36", so Volta has to pay attention to him too, that's good. But who knows if we're not hanging no each other? Last GC day (I won't attack on the last day even if I'm on same time (ok, would sprint for intermediates or for points at the finish) but others can of course, just ni case I'm in red by chance then) so AAD won't have to save energy, Volta can follow whoever he wants, whenever he wants, prediction is will be a fast race, everybody using all their riders as much as possible, which risks not giving any openings at all. AAD not too superb in downhill, but the Donkey of course is worse.... BW more dangerous there, CC missing it with the 68+73 classic, which is not helpful.

Somehow I hope BW wins a stage sooner or later. Has to be sooner, not much later left. Or the GC without winning a single stage, a la Trakthenbrot, that would actually be kind of cool too.

L winless too I think, but with his offline time, hard to get anything I think.

Schappy winless as well, but to be honest he hasn't really tried. The days that seemed clear for escapes, he didn't join the escape, day 1 he was there but killed the group by refusing to communicate. Since then when he was there it was mostly clear the groups weren't going far. He really has to try today and Sunday on the flat (hoping that AAD is working minimally if at all and Pommes alone isn't enough.

[flockmastoR]

In the back, anti Avogadro. Yes. But in a way was the same as the day BW lost his 2 riders. And me Ceroni. Grrr. That day AAD rode to make BW ride in the back. Which BW then didn't, grrr. This time it was let Avogadro ride in the back. And if he doesn't want, let others drop back and ride. Same thing in the end. As you say yourself, you always meet twice. I was ready to join pretty fast. If BW had decided to wait, ok I wait, he was unsure, so I went in to make sure you keep riding. In my case a "Avogadro will keep riding in the gruppetto when he reaches it, would have been enough to make me wait, that offer never came, so I was more than happy to ride in that gruppetto with others and let you destroy your team in the gruppetto. It really is virtually the same as what happened when our group missed the time cut, except that you rode, unlike BW, so you clearly reacted better to it than he did (Ceroni ended the race on 0, so he rode what he could) It's a bit hypocritical to complain now really. Because yes, you still were involved in that debacle the other day, not decisive, that was CC and the lack of tempo by BW, L and Schappy mostly, but still involved. Yesterday then we managed to get a gruppetto riding without you, benefit of having you ride hard in the back using more energy. Exactly what your goal was that day long ago.

Well I wasn't complaining. I was asking bw, told him I will not wait for the group. He just wanted to wait when I let the group come back to the peloton which was not in line with my plans. Avogadro would have continued to ride of course but yeah didn't explicitely tell you. Anyway:

Alive And Dead(15:32): there is still the chance to wait, 2nd and 3rd rider of mine will join soon

pretty clearly shows that I am willing to do all that is needed to save the gruppetto. What was annoying me a bit were some comments in the chat, but it seems they were not meant for me. So therefore I reacted in the bewertung after the race. All fine. Was just not really sure if I should just sacrifice Avogadro or save him. Decided to save him, but still not sure if that was better or worse. Worse because I killed small stage chances for Iwachnenko for today. But having Avogadro fit tomorrow will be better than not having him. On the other hand sacraficing Avogadro would have saved a lot of energy for deCoulomb/Kalman and Iwachnenko. The waiting desaster really made me sweat to lose 3 riders. I dropped deCoulomb and Kalman and recognized they still have following settings. Then I canceled the following and helping setting (for Avogadro). I was watching it for several kms on the climb and was wondering why they don't drop faster. Idiot AAD, cost me some minutes and Iwachnenkos energy for today

[Robyklebt]

Steiner 2nd, Marquez white, team classification, lots of stages, 4 just checked. 3 times Steiner and Ceroni.
GC: Lost time in a stupid way once, twice. Stage 2 the one that hurts most, probably had a chance to win that one with a block. Then when I was close to red and lost 20", 10+10 bonifications. But if I'm closer on the Angliru stage Volta takes more risks regarding Baer and maybe closes us down completely, or at least comes close. What was missing was not those seconds left on those stupid time loss stages (had "stupid" time win stages too, the one I won and Volta no bonifications for example) but another biggish time win. Stage 18 or 20, but 18 never saw an opening, and 20 was pretty much blocked. So ok with second. Or on the stage after the Tourmalet, that was the one I had planned to attack, but in the end did way too little on the previous day, AAD super fit.
Volta: Won it in August, then basically defended, same form as Steiner I suppose, both August (even if AAD now says differently..) and in September, Tourmalet. Ah, some regrets there too, why keep following in, take it out for more energy, twice failed... grrr. Anyway, after taking red he rode defensively while winning x stages, he still had reserves, Angliru as mentioned, he could go faster there. And probably on the following day too, if he needs to win time on Baer or Steiner, he's most likely still the strongest. But with 2 guys relatively close, one getting closer he generally did the little risk, small time loss here, but gain on the other thing. Worked.
Steiner: Said all.
Baer: Lost it with form settings really. August ok, not sure if riding the Vuelta? Burgos! But then September, why so early? Was pretty clear then that he would lose 1 vs 1 each time, and waited until stage 20 to threaten early attacks. Well, mostly uneffective farmers though, never got further. Race was blocked, but in large part by BW himself really. But with better form settings, even only in September, chances were still there, no risk, hang on Volta and wait. Let AAD, he's hard to drop, but if others attack and he has to ride like on Angliru, with same form, it just looks way better. But maybe should have tried to prepare a attack from further out earlier than stage 20 too. Losing 2 riders of course was the second big moment, form settings, then losing 2 riders made it really hard for him to win the Vuelta.
Hill lost time in the TTT, after that spent days being Taka then started by being unhappy and unmotivated and complaining. Countless wins calmed him down, Hill coming closer and closer, but in the end 1 week missing, a 4 weak GT and he's there? Maybe not. He of course profited from being far back, he comes closer earlier, he's not let go that easily anymore. More concentration on GC, less on green and GPM? Maybe, but on the other hand he got a pretty ridiculous win out of an attack that was just for green points at the intermediate. Like for all others, it came down to stage 20, but 1 minute back for him hard, needed others to weaken AAD further and probably go pretty early. And then hope AAD decides to risk Hill but control Steiner and Baer... But with BW blocking the race for AAD, by hanging on Hill and Steiner even more than doing tempo, that was hopeless too. Unless he got a moment when BW was blocking Steiner.... Maybe risk it early, double attack, then drop Gronbech for some not that fast anymore downhill?
GPM, kind of wanted it, but after sneaky Hill got all the points on the day he won the stage too, it was over, no problem.
Green almost more annoying, stage 2, then intermediate sprint on the day I was sleeping instead of racing... and I'm in the race. But ok

Urs Steiner showed that as a leader he can perform at a reasonable level, but like Payot he finally fell short. But Payot started the Giro with better chances on paper than Steiner at the TdF and Vuelta, so while not winning, it's less of a disappointment than with Payot (although he wasn't close to winning either, Volta and his team too strong there).

Team classification: A present by BW in the end, he had that won and dropped back on some stage, forgot why, Baer attack that I forgot maybe?

[flockmastoR]

Still on vacation. Therefore just a short recap on the Vuelta. Plan was differently, keep in touch with Baer and be within 30-40s after the ITT. After that profit by just hanging on him and let others attack him. For sure wanted him in red for the last 2 back-to-back mountain stages and finally win it there.
But Baer with bad form and bw losing 2 helpers early changed the plans. Win as much time as possible in August and try to defend. After the ITT looked more like the original plan but being ultra close to bw. Then he didn't win time on his Topform day (only harmonic cooperation day). But we found a way to survive the back to back mountain stages. Celteam with some important help for the one stage. But he was lost as cooperation partner the stage we hung our risers to be in the group as well. Anyway surprisingly worked out to win the second GT with Volta. Even if not, we had a lot of early stage wins, so trying to defensively go for GC was worth a try. If we lose it in the end, ok. But we prefer winning it.

[CircleCycle]

gw
I had no form for the whole team in September, some of you might have guessed that already.
so thx for letting me win something.