Calexico 15:00

Discuss about the RSF Races

Moderator: englishmods

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:30 pm

Hello and welcome to the real Calexico tour in the afternoon.

We are happy to announce the participation of those 10 teams

1) r QUICK - Has brought a sprinter/light hill sprinter team around serial winner Ganna. Irvine is starting to get old, but Savinci/Irvine and Camoranesi are good supporters for Ganna in light hilly terrain + Camoranesi is the perfect troublemaker in a classics group.

2) bergwerk - Is here with the well known (nearly Tour de France winner) Harry Blind. He has good climbing skills, good reg but lacking a bit TT skills, + his classics support team is attackable. He might be a factor for stage wins and has chances for the podium

3) Alive And Dead - Our team has a good climber with extraordinary TT skills, and a good supportive classics armada. Volta is lacking reg and might lose time on the hard mountain top finishes.

4) Atletico Lula - With 2 sprint strong classics, he will have chances in some hillier stages when it is about the stage win. With Baquero he has a good sprinter for the flat stages.

5) JoyRide - Ziegler is probably the best classic rider in this field. He is the clear leader in the team, but doen't have many helpers that survive too many mountains. Let's see what JoyRide is going for here. Ziegler also has good reg skills.

6) Schnuggeritos - Strongest climber in the field and 54 TT, lacking reg like Volta and has Hahn and the young climber Sebastian as best helpers. Adhikari is the strongest TT guy in the field.

7) Stevens - Velasco is a great climber and still 24, just 49 TT but ok reg and 79 downhill. With Asterloa a great classic in the team + Edogawa as a money sprinter

8) T-Mobile-A - Team around the hill sprinter Merlier, 2 very good classics + Orter and Bosch. Can bring him in good position against Quick in some of the hillier stages. Unai crying at home, great training lately but not enough to show his skills here.

9) Vuvuzela - Hunter with 85 mountain and 49 TT in the fight for the podium, 2 classics and a lot of cannon fodder + Siemsmäher as a sprinter for flat stages.

10) Brunskett Swiss Team - Sprinter team for flat stages, Loosli a hilly sprint/TT allrounder. Might fight for the win against Adhikari on the ITT stage.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

Quick
Posts: 1462
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:55 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by Quick » Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:35 pm

The golden Rs initially didn't plan to ride Calexico after the manager has a Holiday scheduled from Thursday to Sunday but as a sitter could be found already, we try it anyway(for Fr+Sa)

Ganna here for Green.

Irvine here for one last dance.

Eldenkönig at home crying. :?

Let's have good 2 weeks, GC fight looks close already. Youth classement either ;)
J-Czucz hype train

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:46 pm

Ok closer look at the ITT profile again tells me Adhikari should have no chance there. I am pretty bad at remembering the stages even though I designed them...
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:41 pm

Stage 1: Santa Barbara - Los Angeles

First chance for the sprinters and just 3 riders try to go into the early escape, Jaswant Srivastav (A&D) joined the 2 bergwerk riders Allan Cunningham and Matt Duffy. The escape had some communication issues first but worked properly later. The 2 bergwerks could both capture a jersey (mountain and white), just Jaswant was the one who did not get anything (VOTE FOR MOST ACTIVE RIDER IN THE FUTURE STAGES). In the peloton r QUICK managed the hunt with Brunsketti Swiss Team, Vuvuzela and ?Atletico also helping for their sprinters. A late Ville Räätäli attack looked good first, but the Irvine and Scalleone were to strong and ensured a MS. The expected single train sprint with no outsider chances. Oscar Baquero was the strongest in the fight for Ganna's wheel and the final sprint from 50m brought him side-to-side with Ganna who won with 2.34 cm.

So we witnessed the first of many QUICK wins. Stage 2 looks better for a hill sprint. From my perspective, Merlier + Team looks really good. A&D will also try for a Tesla. Let's see if A&D and T-Mobile-A manage an early stage control cooperation.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

Quick
Posts: 1462
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:55 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by Quick » Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:57 pm

flockmastoR wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:41 pm
Stage 1: Santa Barbara - Los Angeles

The expected single train sprint with no outsider chances. Oscar Baquero was the strongest in the fight for Ganna's wheel and the final sprint from 50m brought him side-to-side with Ganna who won with 2.34 cm.
Surprised by that contradiction. It was closer than I hoped especially with the +1 sprint.

Maybe Lula had topform here though - given that he got the wheel ahead of Siemesmäher, seems be possible.

Obviously gonna continue the work on the flat stages. Now that we know of Ville's strength and some tricky finishes to a couple of the remaining flat stages "many more wins" could easily end with only 1 or 2...or none? :|

Today interesting. Merlier has a damn good team on his side. But the profile today is tricky and Tesla ain't got some swimmers as helper either.

Curious if they work together in the end or don't.

Not trying for Ganna. That might be possible in some other fields but you 2 are definitely too strong.
J-Czucz hype train

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:35 pm

Stage 2: Hollywood Hills Forever

210 km, 5 hilly laps, a lot of things could happen. Race started with a km 0-1 escape of 6 riders, Diego Estrade (Atletico Lula), Noah Zürcher, Big Rom (both Brunsketti Swiss Team), Thoma Urquhart, Terry OSullivan (both bergwerk) and Brutus Kurz (Vuvuzela). A&D started the chase with r QUICK helping early at about 7-8 mins gap. Later on T-Mobile-A joined the chase and r QUICK stopped in order to keep his weakened riders in the peloton. Gap soon got under 6 mins, but again raised when Loschmidt was going on green and a fresher Hauser also only did green. Soon it is clear the chasing teams want to keep the peloton together to keep all of their helpers, opening a chance for escapes. Ville Räätäli went for a long solo after a Schnuggeritos team colleague did sieb the weakened helpers at km 149. Still far from the end he gained a lot of tempo and the chasing teams just rolled back their weakened riders and speeded up the chase. On the last lap, stevens attacked with his Adesanya and Cujoh to save some helpers. On the last but one Griffith Observatory pass (+8) Volta made dropped Merlier and A&D's Heuser took over the tempo against Lamparter and Orter. On the last +8 stevens showed that his classic helper is the best today, making tempo with Velasco and dropping every classic except for Asterloa. Some confusion as Heusr dropped behind the Celsius group. A&D decided to keep an already weakened Volta in front losing time at the medium steep km. Looked like stevens finishes in front and a bit of a gift for Vuvuzelas Hunter, with the best sprint value and the least tempo in front (except for Volta). The best sprinters Tesla (in downhill) and Camoraneso (at the final +4) also helped to bring group 2 in a winning position. In the final flat km Celsius gained back 3s per km, which was 3s too less in total, but Camoranesi and Karacharov did help on the final kms for a perfect catch. The sprint was also crazy. Lula with his 2 men 60+ sprint train, Tesla going on the last man of this train 50m too early not using Heuser to bring him a bit closer/save him some energy catching up. That with the already inversted energy/Teslas earlier help lack and his flat deficit was enought to predict he will not win it. Now Lula decided to stop the sprint with his lead-out. Tesla sprinting from 200m to make the best out of it. The win was not in reach at that time. Lula waited another 50 m that cost him the win. Camoraneso winning in front of Rothen and Tesla. What a race!

My favorite stage of the tour. Unfortunately no victory for A&D :cry:
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:37 pm

Quick wrote:
Tue Dec 06, 2022 12:57 pm

Surprised by that contradiction. It was closer than I hoped especially with the +1 sprint.
I don't count Baquero as an outsider. The guy in your wheel always will have some chances.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

Quick
Posts: 1462
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:55 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by Quick » Tue Dec 06, 2022 9:09 pm

Rare stage in a medium long tour(can we call it GT?). Usually it's often an extremely weak escape group or one chasing isn't worth it as it costs too many resources.

Today, the escape group was on the stronger side, the profile wasn't an obvious win for anyone in the back and still, even after giving them a fair amount of time, there were enough teams interested in working together against them.

AaD really did a lot. I can imagine not many will be in reg except his classic guys. Not easy to combine a Tesla team with a Volta team. After all, with 52 TT km, Volta should have good chances. Not enough reg to really dominate it against the onion and the rest but maybe next time he'll decide against Tesla?!

Anyway, back to the race: Mob not convinced of his chances...and if he never planned on bringing Liivik back, there probably weren't any chances for Merlier. He didn't bring too many riders though. Me neither... but mass more important than quality, so I guess still a welcome help for AaD.

Maybe a short side note: Heuser and Jaswant both didn't look strong against Nael from Stevens. So either very tired because he rode against Mob a bit before or Volta was fit? I think a fit Liivik has good chances to bring Merlier back then but we will never know... maybe Camoranesi rides the 5 or Lula and then he dropped him without benefit. Interesting choice anyway.

In the end Stevens really strong. Really, really strong. I think the onion wanted to ride a 5 but forgot. Probably the deciding km for the back.

A point perfect catch and a perfect sprint situation for Cesare. Lucky lucky lucky. Tesla would have deserved it and I hope he gets his chance sooner or later.

We promise we won't win tomorrow or the day after and keep our focus on flat stages.
J-Czucz hype train

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:25 pm

Volta got some help early in the race but was helper from about km 150. Plan was to not missuse him as a helper too early, thought there might be a danger in losing time when gambling too much (and team needs to ride too much). So keeping 4 guys fit and Volta semi fit for the final lap. Worked not too bad. But with the sieb already at the first +8 and the tempo of Heuser and Jaswant there against Mobile, they were weakened enough. And Cesare also had to face how strong Astarloa was yesterday. But I didn't see an alternative in riding with Heuser and Jaswant between the 2 +8s, Mobile was not the main threat at that point, and even if he rejoins, Tesla has his logical wheel and a small chance + secure place 2. I can go out there and provoke dangerous classic attacks with climbers following at the +8 AND what do I do when Mobster is there again, I had no rider left except for my classics to come back. So it was not really a decision but a need to ride there. Limit the power loss of Heuser in the downhill by Volta (ok he should have done it alone there true) and hope for the best (different classics groups fighting each other, attacking etc., easy comeback). Volta at the +5 and +4 would have actually helped a bit, but couldn't risk to lose more than some boni secs to the climbers. Original plan was a reunion with Volta before those km.

Team looks better than expected, my top 5 is on 1000 and the rest is usable. Let's see what happens today
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:20 pm

Stage 3: Pasedena - Lake Arrowhead

King stage on paper, but turns out noone wanted to invest too much before the deciding ITT. A km 0 escape again with riders of stevens (Miuller, Adesanya), Schnuggeritos (Pudenz, Adhikari), Atletico Lula (Campisi), r QUICK (Savinci) and A&D (Fall). Looked good for the group early, as it got more than 8 minutes wihtout chase. Then Vuvuzela took over the smooth chase on the long but not very steep mountain pass. Schnuggeritos with some siebs in the peloton here and there but the riders went out immediately and the whole peloton reached the top of Throop Peak together. In the group Campisi attacked for the mountain jersey and refused the work in the group later, which brought him into the red jersey today. On the final +6 before the last climb Schnuggeritos sieb was continued with tempo against 2 dropped A&D helpers. Fall dropping back into the Volta group and also the 2 Schnuggeritos dropped back. All in all not much happened until the Strawberry Peak climb. The last IS was one by Merlier and Ganna won 4 sprint points that saved him the green trikot for the day. The start of the Strawberry Peak was very steep with a more flat top and a downhill finish. Hunter (Vuvuzela) attacked at the first very steep km (156) and hoped that the other climbers are just looking at each other. Some kms later Cippola in tempo, than Volta in tempo, again Cippola. The climbers watching each other, than Volta and Cippola agreed to work together, caught back Hunter. But the onion than attacked at km 162 (+7) without a follower, he gained just 2 seconds on Volta and Velasco and Blind helped to get him back after a few km. Next attack of Velasco (stevens) at km 172 (+6) with Blind and Cippola following. Volta rode, Blind attacked again in the front group where Cippola couldn't follow. So Blind in front of the rest before the flat and downhill part (5s). He defended the time against all riders and saved 3s in the end to win the first mountain top finish. In the second group Cippola finished 2nd and got some seconds against Volta who didn't sprint and got 4th. Velasco in white, Blind in yellow. Tomorrow a very interessting ITT. Let's see
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

Quick
Posts: 1462
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:55 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by Quick » Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:32 pm

Dream situation for the non-favos in the end today. Volta against Onion in a pure 1 vs 1... well, actually 4 vs 1 because why not let them be exhausted for tomorrow? Wonder where BW, Stevens and Co plan to win the time they lose tomorrow...but ok. BW win, everything close together. Imo Volta and Cippolla came away with a Black eye today. That could have been really hurtful.
J-Czucz hype train

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Wed Dec 07, 2022 7:58 pm

Quick wrote:
Wed Dec 07, 2022 6:32 pm
Dream situation for the non-favos in the end today. Volta against Onion in a pure 1 vs 1... well, actually 4 vs 1 because why not let them be exhausted for tomorrow? Wonder where BW, Stevens and Co plan to win the time they lose tomorrow...but ok. BW win, everything close together. Imo Volta and Cippolla came away with a Black eye today. That could have been really hurtful.
You mean Votla with the 1? Had no plan at all how to ride the finish. Heuser and Tesla pretty fit. Was first thinking about sieb at the HC and profit from the better team but that wouldn't solve the last climb problem. So decided to cover riders of GK relevant teams to make sure they don't do too crazy stuff. Hoped for deCoulomb instead of very weak Fall but was clear he is just there in case of siebs. I really welcomed Schnuggeritos suggestion of riding together. Would have totally made sense to just ride together follow no one and hope that other climbers attack in the wrong moment. Well like I see it Cippola should have about 900-920 energy tomorrow, Stevens climber could also be under reg. Hunter probably in reg Blind for sure.

Predictions for tomorrow are hard. Blind and Hunter can give a bit more. Question is how much under reg everybody is willing to go. The day after tomorrow not totally unriski. But takes a lot to get rid of a climber there. Still can you trust your teammates to keep you in the race if somebody tried something there. Wouldn't expect many teams going for the stage probably mobile can be found as a cooperation partner. Let's see how needs one
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

Quick
Posts: 1462
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:55 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by Quick » Wed Dec 07, 2022 8:13 pm

I mean after Cippola attacked. GC favos imo Cippola and Volta, so after Cippola attacks, it's the perfect situation to let Volta chase him alone and use the power advantage later or even tomorrow.

Not like it was dangerous for the stage too as it was early...except if you go out but why should you do that?

Cippola and you against Vuvu made sense of course.

Jockel is instructed to help a tiny little bit on Friday btw. If you chose to go for Tesla ;)
J-Czucz hype train

Quick
Posts: 1462
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:55 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by Quick » Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:36 pm

Good Job Brunsketti.

Volta strong.

Liivik a mobster.

Tomorrow rest day. No? Grrr.
J-Czucz hype train

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Thu Dec 08, 2022 7:12 pm

Stage 4: ITT Big Bear Lake

55 km ITT with a steep climb to the Silver Peak in the middle of the race. First rider to set a time was Pratima Adhikari, strongest guy against the time was setting good interim times and took over the lead with a big gap. Alfonso Florez (JoyRide) finished with 2'14'' delay to Adhikari. Next rider to watch was Sepp Loosli, who was behind Adhikari at the first interim time but ahead at the Silver Peak, from there on, he just lost some seconds to Adhikari and set the new best time (and the time that won the stage). Now coming to the earlier yellow jersey owner Camoranesi (r QUICK), he started fast but was behind Loosli at the first interime time. On the mountain he pushed hard and managed to win the mountain price just a few seconds in front of the yellow guy Blind who started last. In the end Camoranesi finished behind Loosli and Adhikari. Volta (A&D) was the first of the climbers to start his 55 km. He started slowly, was behind Camoranesi on top of the Silver Peak but kept the short gap to him in the flat and started to win time back there. In the finish, he was 3rd, behind Loosli and Adhikari and 40 s in front of Camoranesi. Hunter was the next climber to start the TT, after a good interim time at the Silver Peak he finally lost 164 s to Volta and is now 2'44'' behind yellow. Next climber to start the race was Velasco (stevens). He also performed well until the Silver Peak and lost 188 s to Volta in the finish. The onion started next and finished with 156 s delay on Volta. Last starter was the yellow guy Blind. He performed better than the other climbers until the first interim time and overtook Volta on top of the Silver Peak. Then he started to lose time, first slowly, in the end faster. He lost 104 s and is the first chased of Volta with 1'31'' in the GC. Loosli winning, Volta taking over yellow, Blind taking over the mountain jersey.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Fri Dec 09, 2022 6:46 pm

Stage 5: San Bernadino - Palm Springs

The third of the 3 in a row GC stages. The profil looked not too hard, but the stage is the second longest within this years December tour has 3 middle steep mountains and a flat finish and has the potential to be used for GC actions. The stage started with a 3 men group of Karl Freyenberg (r QUICK), Johann Loschmidt and Mouhamed Fall (both A&D). Stevens chased immediately being able to smell a rat. So hard tempo from the start and stevens with a counter attack of Sergei Milencar and Israel Adesanya who easily got rid of the 3 others. In the back T-Mobile-A with soft chasing to avoid chaos of A&D doing GC related attacks or siebs. On the top of Crafts Peak, the 3 men group gave up and the 2 stevens were ahead about 5-6mins. As the yellow team was back in the peloton T-Mobile-A stopped tempo and the group in front started to roll at a gap of 10 minutes. On the way through the San Bernardino National Forest, the race got more interessting. Some early siebs of Celsius checked how the sprinters feel and what helpers T-Mobile-A is going to save for the long downhill flatish finish. On km 145 Volta went in tempo dropping all riders but Harry Blind. Surprisingly the 3 A&D classics were the only ones to keep up together with Astarloa (stevens). A&D kept pushing with Volta downhill and Heuser in the flater part. The top group consisted of the 5 top climbers, Heuser, Srivastav and Tesla (all A&D), Astarloa, Adesanya and Milencar (all stevens). Heuser increased the gap to 3 minutes and kept it over 2 min until km 197 against T-Mobile-A who was riding in the back for Merlier with Edogawa (stevens) as a second good sprinter there. On the final +4 Volta tried an attack together with Srivastav but all climbers except for Hunter could follow. Additionally, Tesla was not in the group and the better sprinter Adesanya from stevens was. So the group lost half a minute waiting again for Heuser and Tesla. Srivastav rode the last 10km keeping away the sprinter group and also blocking a last km try from Astarloa. The final sprint was won by Tesla, Volta finished 3rd and won some bonus seconds on all other climbers. Tesla taking over the green jersey, Adesanya leading the mountain classification.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Sat Dec 10, 2022 6:09 pm

Stage 6: Indio - Mexicali

The signature stage for the tour, crossing the boarder at Calexico/Mexicali. A rather short flat stage and 2 riders in the early escape Greiderer and Fettner (both T-Mobile-A). r QUICK was chasing at 4mins and kept the gap pretty close. More sprinter teams joined the chase and made a sprint very likely. T-Mobile-A tried to save the last IS by attacking with Liivik and a final attempt with Orter has also failed against late tempo of Irvine. In the sprint, the well known train for Ganna was not challenged hard. Tesla tried from 250, Borgia started at 200 and surprisingly Siemsmäher launched from 150 with Menerdi in the wheel. The battle between Ganna (who was a bit back) and Menerdi from 100m was won by Menerdi by 1.5 cm. Tesla could defend green for the day with sprints at the IS and a 8th place and is now leading by 13 points.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Sun Dec 11, 2022 3:31 pm

Restday

Some time to recap the previous stages and give a preview on the fight for the classifications.

Standing GC after 6/13 stages
0'00'' Alessandro Volta (Alive And Dead)
1'35'' Harry Blind (bergwerk)
2'34'' Andrea Cippola (Schnuggeritos)
2'38'' Cesare Camoranesi (r QUICK)
2'48'' Nelson Hunter (Vuvuzela)
3'05'' Alejandro Velasco (stevens)

The first part of the GC deciding stages is done, with a mountain top finished followed by a long ITT and a medium hilly stage, the reg intensive part for the leaders is over. Volta could limit the time loss at the mountain top finish by strictly riding tempo and let the others try to attack him. God for him, there were no climbers group with 2-3 riders working together. Additionally Volta could save some energy and started the ITT fit, which was not given for all climbers. In the ITT he won back the time lost to Blind and kept distanced him. After winning boni at stage 5, Volta is leading with 1'35'' and Blind is the first competitor. The better climbers (Velasco and Cippola) both lost more in the TT and are 2'34'' and 3'05'' behind. Hunter still in the middle. The 2 classics that are closest are Camoranesi (2'38'') and Liviik (T-Mobile-A, 3'24''). I don't see big chances for the classics to come back and win the tour. On the finish at stage 12 alone, they would lose to much. So the GC will be decided between the climbers on stage 9 and 12. The gap for Volta seems to be sufficient to bring it over the finish line and currently there is a clear climber to cover. Nevertheless, stage 12 can potentially bring huge time gaps and the training this night can also change something (Velasco is 24 and could probably be a 87 tomorrow, but Volta could also gain a mountain point to reach 86, not to talk about other more unlikely mountain trainings). Right now the podium predection looks like 1. Volta, 2. Blind, 3. Cippola/Hunter/Velasco. We also can skipp the prediction for white, as Volta is leading there too and his biggest competitor is Velasco.

Green jersey after 6/13 stages
72 Nikola Tesla (Alive And Dead)
59 Alfredo Ganna (r QUICK)
48 Gabriel Menerdi (Brunsketti Swiss Team)
43 Tim Merlier (T-Mobile-A)
42 Rainer Siemsmäher (Vuvuzela)
35 Konan Edogawa (stevens)

Tesla with the bonus stage 5. Was never planned he has a chance there with only 36 reg. Even though A&D tried everything to avoid a Tesla win there (failed Volta + Srivastav attack where Tesla was on the wrong stevens guy), Nikola won the stage and together with his 3rd place (and no points for Merlier and Ganna) on stage 2 he came into green. On stage 6 he could get some boni on the road and defended the jersey. At that stage, Tesla is in the fight for green, but I would still bet my money on Ganna. He still is the favorite for stages 7,8,11 even with the +3 finish at stage 7. There are options for him to get IS points on hilly and HC stages left + not totally chanceless on stage 13 and r QUICK will have green as number 1 priority goal now. On the other hand, Tesla has another chance at stage 10 and 13, could also get some IS on flat stages or even at the top mountain finish, were he already scores some points. Additionally he is not loosing too many points on a flat stage usually. His biggest disadvantage is the A&D major goal of yellow. Menerdi not totally chanceless but he has limited chances, still if he would join the fight for IS points probably Tesla the one to profit the most from it. My prediction: Close race with Ganna winning!

Red jersey after 6/13 stages
50 Israel Adesanya (stevens)
29 Harry Blind (bergwerk)
26 Sergei Milencar (stevens)

With 2 HC finishes the chances for the climbers the best (Harry Blind 29, Nelson Hunter 16, Alessandro Volta 10). Blind has a good gap on Hunter but is also the biggest threat to Volta. Adesanya with good points and some chances out of escapes but if bergwerk really wants to go for it on the hilly stages he will get it. My prediction: Blind winning red.

Stage wins by teams (riders):
2 r QUICK (1x Ganna, 1x Camoranesi)
2 Brunsketti Swiss Team (1x Loosli, 1x Menerdi)
1 bergwerk (1x Blind)
1 Alive And Dead (1x Tesla)

Days in yellow:
2 Volta
1 Ganna
1 Camoranesi
1 Blind
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

Quick
Posts: 1462
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:55 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by Quick » Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:20 pm

Had mad respect of this stage and I think it showed in the beginning. ;)

What a joke of the designer. Grants the sprintteams a lovely rest day before 2 flat stages...and then really makes the first of those 230km long with a hilly finish.

So idea was to get help. Make it clear that while I don't mind working, I'm not going to risk tomorrow only to not be able to hold Orter, Ville, Liivik and co in the end. 230km... if a group with 3 pullers and 3 riders goes, that would be intense to catch.

Underestimated the 5s in the end today. Didn't even think of siebs there - and had fighting off. Luckily no danger for my leaders although I lost more riders than necessary. Sorry to Brunsketti who saw all his work wasted :(

So, back to the race. Only a 2 men group. Bw and Tma. Perfect...quite late as well. Maybe with 120 or 130km to go? Easy to control and no danger to be dead tomorrow.

Last hill - earlyish Orter attack. Ville on the wheel. The most dangerous flat riders without a classic in front before the 5s. Perfect. No danger either. If there's a classic hanging, different story.

Then first 5. AaD joins. Or rather, takes the lead. Bit surprised because without his classics a sprint is nearly impossible, and no sprint better Tesla green chances? Anyway Jaswant strong and I'm thankful. Stevens attacks. Liivik and Wilde hanging. Only 1 second away. Blimey, they're also no danger. Jaswant rides the first hill.

Savinci joins then. Hahn strong, attacks at a 4, comes 3 seconds away but isn't strong enough to keep his advantage on the flat km.

The last km, Cesare blocks. Only Lula had fresh classics but didn't even try.

Ganna wins the sprint - in the end, his first clear sprint win this tour. Tomorrow we go again.
J-Czucz hype train

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:16 am

Quick wrote:
Mon Dec 12, 2022 8:20 pm
Had mad respect of this stage and I think it showed in the beginning. ;)

What a joke of the designer. Grants the sprintteams a lovely rest day before 2 flat stages...and then really makes the first of those 230km long with a hilly finish.

So idea was to get help. Make it clear that while I don't mind working, I'm not going to risk tomorrow only to not be able to hold Orter, Ville, Liivik and co in the end. 230km... if a group with 3 pullers and 3 riders goes, that would be intense to catch.

Underestimated the 5s in the end today. Didn't even think of siebs there - and had fighting off. Luckily no danger for my leaders although I lost more riders than necessary. Sorry to Brunsketti who saw all his work wasted :(

So, back to the race. Only a 2 men group. Bw and Tma. Perfect...quite late as well. Maybe with 120 or 130km to go? Easy to control and no danger to be dead tomorrow.

Last hill - earlyish Orter attack. Ville on the wheel. The most dangerous flat riders without a classic in front before the 5s. Perfect. No danger either. If there's a classic hanging, different story.

Then first 5. AaD joins. Or rather, takes the lead. Bit surprised because without his classics a sprint is nearly impossible, and no sprint better Tesla green chances? Anyway Jaswant strong and I'm thankful. Stevens attacks. Liivik and Wilde hanging. Only 1 second away. Blimey, they're also no danger. Jaswant rides the first hill.

Savinci joins then. Hahn strong, attacks at a 4, comes 3 seconds away but isn't strong enough to keep his advantage on the flat km.

The last km, Cesare blocks. Only Lula had fresh classics but didn't even try.

Ganna wins the sprint - in the end, his first clear sprint win this tour. Tomorrow we go again.
Ha wonderful design, even like it more and more now. Well wanted to have one challenging flat stage. This one didn't really look too challenging on paper first, but the length and hillyness in the end makes the difference. The +3 final potentially shaken up the favorite roles, but not here were Ganna has the best train and good mountain skills.

Clearly not in my favor to have another sprint win of Ganna but 1) I need to block the end anyway, stevens potentially able to win time with Astarloa+Velasco there 2) not interested to control a huge group with classic riders and just 10' behind in GC all alone, if the sprinters show no interest at all, that could become reality 3) I am a fan of keeping your stage hunters happy, experienced enough stage races where I was ridding each stage alone just about GC control and the few that ride for their goals get my support even though it is not always in my favor for some side goals

With all of this said, I at least expected kwick doesn't also get his sprinter number 2 in between Ganna and Telsa, but I was not watching the sprint and don't know how it happened (Even if I think it was just the lulu low speed sprint with Borgia opening the sprint very late)
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

Quick
Posts: 1462
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:55 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by Quick » Tue Dec 13, 2022 12:40 pm

I appreciate that mindset and probably also better to not risk losing any unnecessary seconds here before the next rather hard stages. Even if our GC looks pretty clear and already decided - Velasco could become a problem under certain circumstances.

I forgot in my summery to add that Velasco was with Liivik and Nael after their try on the 5.

The sprint was a cheesy one. After losing the other good sprinters on the 5, Cesare launched from 500 as usual - but once Ganna was in place and no other dangerous train formed, he went on Savincis wheel who also launched from 500 parallel. Which allowed me to keep a rather strong Cesare for 250m. Then Borgia from 150 with Ganna from 50.

Merlier went from 100 and even was slightly ahead of Ganna then but no problem on the last 50 for Ganna.

Worked perfectly to at least have you 4th instead of 3rd. Would have preferred you further back though ;)
J-Czucz hype train

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:56 pm

Stage 8: Irapuato - Aguascalientes

Another flat stage with a 3 men group all from Schnuggeritos. The group got a gap of 5 minutes and could win some money at the IS. r QUICK with a good chase and another sprint win for Alfredo Ganna who also recaptured the green jersey after losing it on stage 5 to Tesla. A&D tried their own sprint train and Fall was able to get some distance between him and Camoranesi. But Borgia covered the wheel of Loosli who was hanging on Tesla. Ganna is now leading by 16 points with a flat stage remaining.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

Quick
Posts: 1462
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:55 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by Quick » Wed Dec 14, 2022 7:00 pm

Escape didn't call my bluff. Before the stage everyone apart from Matthew, Mattia, Cesare and the 2 sprinters below 850.

Didn't really intend to work for the sprint but won't say no to a gift. Mattia attacked after he saw km 1 and 2 because a gift was looking unlikely but after some tempo in the peloton a different group formed.

A group consisting of the red jersey who also has the best mountain rider. The team with the yellow Jersey who brought a 37 reg guy and only one other rider(of the team who won the last HC stage) was imo extremely likely to give up if they feel the slightest resistance. So slight resistance was given and after Borgia rode the first hill, they really gave up.

Nothing else happening then. Grupetto came back. Everyone afraid of my mighty team...except tma who waited to long. As if schnugg or Stevens would gave gifted him...

Ganna gets the sprint. Stevens the stage. Volta still untroubled in yellow.
J-Czucz hype train

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Wed Dec 14, 2022 9:03 pm

Stage 9: Calvillo - Crucero

Today we raced the second HC mountain stage. It started with 2 medium steep mountains. Many attacks at the first kilometers and a 4 men group getting till the top of the second mountain. A&D still in tempo behind to controll the steep start of the stage dropping some weaker riders but waiting for them after the first climb. r QUICK with tempo behind, making clear his goal is the IS at km 176, Schnuggeritos also showed his riders for the stage. Celsius dropping back to the yellow jersey after the sky has cleared. Other riders also started to roll and the whole peloton was reunited for the rest of the stage. Until km 166 where Ganna attacked together with his team mate Savinci, T-Mobile-A hanging with Merlier, bergwerk hanging with Duffy. Ganna getting his 6 sprint points. Schnuggeritos still controlling the race and A&D took over the pace with Srivastav at the foot of the final climb. After an attack from Hahn (Schnuggeritos) and a sieb by Cippola, Jaswant was distance but A&D continued with Heuser still having a helper advantage against Cippola and equal helpers against Velasco, Blind's two helpers were with Schnuggeritos helpers in the back. After the steeper kms, Heuser took out the tempo as Jaswant nearly fought back to the Schnuggeritos group and therefore he was the security anchor for attacks. Velasco was than the climber to set the pace (km 197), surprisingly dropping the onion with Volta and Blind in the group. After 2 km ridden by Volta (probably one with Blind also in tempo), Velasco attacked and couldn't be caught back. Blind tried to get Volta in tempo, who rested for a km after riding more to that point, but it didn't make a lot of different. Velasco won the stage with 7s, Volta stayed in the group with Blind and could win 2 seconds on him in the sprint. Cippola losing 20 seconds to Velasco but defends his podium for today. Ganna making a big step towards securing green. Adesanya making a big step towards securing the mountain jersey. Volta making a big step towards securing yellow.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

User avatar
flockmastoR
Posts: 3112
Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:42 pm
Contact:

Re: Calexico 15:00

Post by flockmastoR » Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:20 am

Stage 10: Puente de Camatlan - Tepic

Hilly stage which is harder in the first half of the stage and has a +6 +6 +5 combination before the final flat passage. Big group with OSullivan, Duffy (bergwerk), Bosch, Hauser (T-Mobile-A), Adesanya, Bluemarine (stevens), Honda, Kurz (Vuvuzela) and Campisi (Atletico Lula) escaping on km 5. Hard tempo behind by A&D and the group not really working with Honda in it. Same group without the Vuvuzelas was attacking again on km 11. Hard reaction in the back by A&D riding with deCoulomb an dropping about 10 riders, who form the gruppetto for the whole stage. Tempo stayed high until El Viejo where finally Vuvuzela also joined the chase. From then on tempo was a bit lower. A&D also taking some breaks and the gap was about 1:50 when reaching the IS at km 112. The short but steep Las Yeguas climb decided the stage, Vuvuzela with a double attack of his 2 classics at the first steep km (Honda and Hell + Truelove from bergwerk hanging), A&D reacting with Celsius in tempo. Honda and Hell reached the top group on top of the climb (or what was left from it) and bergwerk and Vuvuzela worked together in front. In the back, the group waited for all the helpers after the hill, but the gap to the front group was soon at 4 mins. From km 139 Hell and Truelove distanced all other riders. In the back nobody seemed interested for really trying for the stage. A&D mostly just interested to be able to control the finish, while some tempo attempts of Schnuggeritos and T-Mobile-A were really late. In front Truelove won the sprint. In the back, Volta helped Heuser and Tesla and therefore was distanced about 8s on the first +6. On the second +6 all other classics except for Liivik were distanced and Blind went out at the +5 so the group was reunited. Heuser was able to hold it together and Tesla could win the sprint for 3rd place.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
__________________
Schrödinger's Dogs: Alive & Dead

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests