Tour de France 2022, 14h

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Weezel
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Re: Tour de France 2022, 14h

Post by Weezel » Tue Jul 19, 2022 12:41 pm

I'm glad I decided to take part here one day before the TDF started.
Actually I'm hunting my stagewin since the second restday last monday, some chances are left. What I don't want is to be without a stagewin the second Tour de France in a row - that would a little bit cruel. But it's also very exciting to go into groups that often. Lamparter with his 53 regeneration is a nice guy for escapes, but his lack of sprint (43!) makes it very difficult to reward us for the effort.

Here are my thoughts about the situations:

GC: All in all we have e nice field with eight very active teams. I also enjoy to watch the GC-Fight between Alkworld, bergwerk, Donkey and Gipfel. Of course it would be great to be a part of it with Unai - but with missing the whole first weak I was afraid to bringt him with me. Like everybody I think Melville is the big favourite now. But with an attacking Vespa at some point the other gc-candidates will leave the hunt for the classics to him. And that could be hazardous.

Green: Absolutely no problem for Ical. As Skoglund missed some points of the first week and after me coming back I had no chance. But deserved for Ical, big effort by CC with all those intermediates.

Polka dot: Proulx is the only one who hunts it with big effort. Of course also Blind and Asier are not out of the race, but actually they focus on the gc.

Youth: Melville, no question. But we want to keep the third place with Lamparter to gain some money.

Let's have a great last week!
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Robyklebt
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Re: Tour de France 2022, 14h

Post by Robyklebt » Tue Jul 19, 2022 7:28 pm

Don't be frustrated! Today as you said was GC in the end, but with Liivik you were there, just 47" missing. And needed to somehow beat Armleder then... difficult. Gipfel chasing hard first, then less, simply that he knew that he couldn't get the second group back, he probably missed the sectrick there, group was at +/- 30", and going red this time, Fischer used, energy goes fast then, he can't catch them. Gerbi already and then a classic on the early 5 and 6? Can work, but even that not sure. So he decided to let go and chase in the back. Just join him next time, and try to get into the escape with the next jump!

Otherwise, not very happy with how it went somehow, my plan was to go at the 10 in the first of the 2 final climbs, go it alone, hope to defend vs Manrique, who I think in that case would have ridden for Melville.

But somehow missed the 6, attack by Vespa, Donkey chaos, Meucci in, chasing hard, thought was still the flat, oh, 6, attack Asier!!!, Oh, no, get the attack first, put him in tempo!!! change to red!!! Take attack out!! Finally did the attack, think was still green, not enough time to do everything, only managed attack and tempo I guess. But getting that group first would have been sort of nice. But then probably at the mercy of Alk, alone he probably catches me, riding with Manrique-Melville, but he can afford to lose some time to me still...

So finally probably better this way, even if I'm not happy about my chaotic 10% attack...

Now Blind, 1'23" ahead of Melville, 1'43" ahead of Basterretxea. Vespa at 35", but should lose lots of time in the next 2 days.

Melville still the favorite 37" with same form, since he will have better form it's probably over 40", let's say 43" gained in the TT, so 40" left to catch up. 2 mountain top arrivals, he should manage to gain some time on both. If he goes for stage, possibly 12" in bonifications alone (although Asier said he will try to get the stages...) But well, to me looks very doable for Alk, get 50", don't lose any or just minimally to Asier, that's it.

I need to gain something like a minute on him, and rely on him to distance Blind enough, doesn't look like it will work, but on the other hand didn't really expect to gain time on Melville today either, so who knows.
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Robyklebt
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Re: Tour de France 2022, 14h

Post by Robyklebt » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:25 am

Perfect strategy yesterday and I completely fucked up the execution.

Gamboa ahead. The Vespa goes as expected, Drinkwater follows, both pullers where they need to be. Drinkwater fighting a bit, not good but ok...Both pullers in place, what can go wrong?

Go at km 75 drop on top, ride, next climb Asier to Drinkwater ride. Easy.
But doubts and stupidity. First thinking, is Gamboas advantage sufficient? Hm, think think. Then looking at the profile, we're at 100, 2 km orange then it starts, still 1 min time. Yes looked at the wrong part of the profile. And then km 75 was gone. Damn... What to do? Go 77. Too late, Gamboa caught right when we reached km 100. At least I was in the right place. Attack again at 103, red. Vespa through, Melville close, Blind 8" incl. bonifications, Asier4th.

Going in the right place, 20-25" more, puts me out of reach of the peloton before the next clb, saves me an energy sapping red attack at 103 and most likely wins me the stage. Pretty confident would have gotten that. 24" behind, that's basically the 2 km too late. Add the energy... GC of course not enough to really come back.

In the back Romoc with hard to understand tempo... Very likely cost Vespa yellow, possibly me the stage. Without his tempo, slow BW downhill, Alk weirdly showed no interest there, I avoid the second attack, which still then might just be enough for the stage. But in my case, ok, I really made the main mistake myself, only myself to blame. (Or the late mintact, yeah that's it)Gipfel on the other hand did everything right, those few seconds for yellow were definitely there without the Romoc tempo. Just the first downhill and flat probably is already enough.
What for? 4th GC? Team classification? He said missed the action due to work, now saving what could be saved... Nobody saw the point in it. Or what was saved either. Weird. But ok, we've all made strange tempo in our careers, some like Alk even just to make sure a disliked manager doesn't get a chance, stuff like Romoc yesterday happens in the heat of the action.

Today the stage motto should be: free Melville. 37" to Blind in the TT, but incl. the form should really be over a minute, as Gipfel rightly pointed out.. So get back 15"+ . Win the stage. Don't worry about reg. Both tight control, win on the last climb, and early action using Proulx for pullers (that works with control too) seem possible. He probably wants an emphatic win to show that Melville really is the boss. Should work...

Excellent days for Blind lately, I thought he would lose more yesterday, but today I fear the dream should be over. Less Pommeroying for nothing early, more Pommeroying in the mountains could have helped a bit?

Donkey today off the first 30 min. Possibly the second best sitter available, AAD (Manghi is number 1!!!)will look in and give some class to the team. Plan was to have him the whole stage, but he only has time 30-40' so maybe he joins just for the start If not, not much changes, at this point GC looks hopeless and stage difficult. More from the mobile standing in the train sweating between lots of people. Not that I would be confident from home...
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Gipfelstuermer
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Re: Tour de France 2022, 14h

Post by Gipfelstuermer » Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:17 am

Thanks for all the race reports and contributions from others. I had limited time but trying to write a bit here and update statistics.

It has been a wild and interesting tour so far in this group of very experienced teams. Our Italian classics duo Abbiati/Vespa has been able to create some action because the climber teams are missing some classics with more than 70 mountain. Well, Alk has the strongest classic perhaps with Manrique (now 73-82) but he seemed to be a co-captain for a while and then his form declined. Big Donkey has Drinkwater (70-79) and Rossi (67-79) and bergwerk has Pommeroy (68-77) and Macpherson (68-76). So Abbiati's 74-80 and Vespa's 74-76 was always great for attacking.

Then yesterday Vespa with triple training (Mountain, Flat, TT, amazing...), but nonetheless the 35-year-old wanted to show he is still one of the best riders. And what could be better suited for that than the second stage in the Pyrenees? Aspin, Horquette d'Ancizan, Val Louron Azet and then Peyragudes. As we had Florent Faber in escape, Abbiati/Vespa attacked on the Aspin already. 70km before the finish line. Big Donkey tried to jump across with Basterretxea as well but as he described it didn't work for Basterretxea as planned. Would we have liked him in our group? For some cooperation it could have been nice, but wouldn't have been easy to find cooperation between 73-75 and 86-58 on such a stage. Instead, CC helped a little bit in escape for Bob Smith (CircleCycle), who was once again in the right wheel after he won on Alpe D'Huez, which had been an epic ride by Vespa and Smith.

In the back bergwerk, Alk and Romoc rode to catch us. Romoc simply missed the escape. Would have preferred to see him there. In any case, Rezek and Alasko were really strong on this terrain so the advantage was melting from nearly 3' to only a little bit above 2' before the climb to Peyragudes. In another epic ride - even though Smith was dropped this time - Vespa stayed in front of the climbers on the way up to Peyragudes. Melville, strongest of the climbers on this day, arrived 5'' after Vespa. Blind at 11''. Basterretxea at 24''. Amazing stage win for Vespa while once again not very much changed in GC. Blind kept the yellow jersey and is in a good position compared to Melville and Basterretxea. Not sure how much Melville can win in the TT. If he has better form, yes, it can be enough. But even though he was the strongest yesterday, he only won 6'' against Blind, after Blind did a few km of tempo alone. So I'm really not so sure about the difference in form. At times Melville seemed to have later form, but on the pavé stage they stayed together (same pavé value) and these 6'' yesterday were not super impressive. But all impressions are bit blurred because Alk was riding for Manrique on a few stages and it's not like both always had 2 helpers.... well, we can only speculate on this. Vespa is proud to be in the mix, still, but I fear that this will change on today's third stage in the Pyrenees to Hautacam and for sure in the Time Trial.

Situation in GC
0:00 Harry Blind (bergwerk)
+18'' Vittore Vespa (Gipfelstuermer)
+1'15'' Herman Melville (Alkworld)
+2'00'' Asier Basterretxea (Big Donkey)
+4'11'' Isaac Gutierez (Romoc Riders)
+7'04'' Bob Smith (CircleCycle)
+9'34'' Cesar Manrique (Alkworld)

Stage wins by riders:
2 - Cadmael Ical (CircleCycle)
2 - Asier Basterretxea (Big Donkey)
2 - Vittore Vespa (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Romain Page (CircleCycle)
1 - Roman Horava (Romoc Riders)
1 - Fortunato Fontdevilla (Team FL)
1 - Harry Blind (bergwerk)
1 - Giacomo Gerbi (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Milan Rezek (Romoc Riders)
1 - Bob Smith (CircleCycle)
1 - Branco Boom (Romoc Riders)
1 - Patrizio Rossi (Big Donkey)
1 - Reinaldo Gamboa (Big Donkey)
1 - Isaac Gutierez (Romoc Riders)

Stage wins by teams:
4 - CircleCycle
4 - Romoc Riders
3 - Gipfelstuermer
3 - Big Donkey
1 - Team FL
1 - bergwerk

Days in Maillot Jaune:
5 - Hugo AbarcaGonzalez (CircleCycle)
5 - Harry Blind (bergwerk)
4 - Romain Page (CircleCycle)
2 - Vittore Vespa (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Cesar Manrique (Alkworld)
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Alkworld
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Re: Tour de France 2022, 14h

Post by Alkworld » Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:18 pm

Finally some time to comment on this edition. I have to say that the team came here with a completely different plan: win some stages, take the white jersey with late form, maybe go for Manrique. That's what the lineup was planned for. After the first sieb on the pave stage it was clear, that Blind had earlier form, which totally made sense considering the distribution of difficulties here. Melville's main reason for late form was him being young, giving him a better chance to be really strong in the end with some training.
The team had some ideas to decide the tour earlier, but those were missed either by not getting into the right group or underestimating the attacks, mostly two days ago. Today of course went great, with Blind being too scared of Manrique and riding too early. Winning this stage would have been a nice bonus, but Maillot Jaune in Paris was clearly the main goal, therefore Melville took the safe way.
For the rest of the tour, the sprinters will have another supporter and Manrique still has eyes on the ITT.

Robyklebt
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Re: Tour de France 2022, 14h

Post by Robyklebt » Sat Jul 23, 2022 10:37 pm

Need a break from horse racing preparation and designing, what better than here?`

Asier with his third win in the last Pyrenees stage. Great. Third place less, thought I'd be probably second at the start, possibly third depending on Manrique after I realized that he could be a danger. But thought I'd beat Blind... But it really all went differently than I thought, form stories, I now suspect that Blind had very early form (well, suspected earlier, but middle of the race). That means before the Granon-Alpe double. Asier on Granon. Melville probably Peyragudes? Or Foix? Or Hautacam Peyragudes seems most logical. Blind? Megève since he seemed so intent on riding there? Weird place... ok, earlier then, the one before the rest day? Even Planches?
Anyway, expected an impasse between the climbers, 86-85-84, soon 85, most of the time everybody can follow everybody. 86 with same form doesn't drop 85 at the first try usually. Well, maybe on a 6, which thanks to the greatness of overvaluing the cheapest skill is the most selective in attacks if you have even a little bit more flat. I had less, but more mountain, so should have been ok anyway. Off topic already... anyway, thought all logical Granon/Alpe d'Huez form, nobody gets away, Manrique stays in GC as I found out at some point.

So wasn't too worried with the pavé, 2', pff, no problem. With that I'm far enough to be sure that Blind will be the one followed when we ride up the hill with classics. or 65 guys. So I can go, with 2' back easier than with 1'30". Which wouldn't have been too difficult, at least twice the same idiotic mistake (fighting for helpers out, lost some time, come back, already that's easily 10". Then let a fresh strong guy drop back for the virtually unsiebable *. That I decided wasn't worth it, but that cost me probably around 20". was always the km I lost most. The harder pavé was fine, I lost minimally or even nothing, question of strength of pullers, too fast you lose too much, so we both went too slow I guess. Then not dropping Bradman at all instead trying a stage win. Yeah, hadn't seen Fontdevila even... and was hoping on Gerbi following a bit. Seemed a good idea then, and 1'50" or 2' didn't matter much. Simply expected another race due to form.

Of course I should have realized during the pavé stage somethign was off, Blind ahead of Melville. I had expected that they are together and then thanks to better helping and no fighting, while trying to make Blind fight at some point Melville would drop Blind, and Blind lose 30" at the very least, maybe more, if dropped early even be caught by me. Was happy it didn't happen, more freedom for me, but should have realized that it meant either Blind VERY early form or Melville very late or both... For that I would have had to go full gas and end up closer, as I said, think easily possible. But never under a minute, Alks flat team just stronger than mine. 1'20", 1'15" seems possible, after that IMO hard.

So, being slow I was kind of surprised still that on the Planches Alk went in from the bottom, even if at that point at least I had realized that one had different form, but... ok, surprised, that meant almost surely that Manrique was out. But that made it harder for me to profit from my big deficit... But got me 3 wins. Could actually have been 5... Online on L'Alpe I think I win that, maybe full of myself, but on, I try to put guys ahead, Alk chases, group never that far, when Gipfel goes faster reaction behind, no pullers in front, Asier wins. IMO. No H, not humble. And if I don't fuck up the timing of my Peyragudes attack, I maybe can win that too. But actually ok with 3 wins. GC, Alpe if I'm let go the best chance, but don't think I would have been let go. Right following like Blind on some days, not fucking up the attack timing again to Foix. But GC win was far really, but I'll take the 3 wins for Basterretxea.

Today Melville 55" on Basterretxea. That's 4,5 TT difference basically, Asier-Blind 12", that's 1 TT point better, would fit with some weird early form.... pretty sure he went through 100%, so I might have gotten a bit more if I did the same.. but I did my usual testing slow fast thing, was even faster than Melville on the 8-4 combi at the end, 1" if I saw it right. But slower overall usually. Anyway, while many seconds can be due to luck in the TT, would fit Blind very early, me logical, Melville late. 67" for Melville would mean 5,5 TT points. All fits...

Ok, time for some horse racing prep again.
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
Basics reform: Give blue a chance!
Don't punish bugusers. We all have to use bugs, since most of them are declared as "features"!

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