Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

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Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Mon Dec 06, 2021 6:22 pm

7 teams, kind of ok, even if I hoped for more, I always do. But Seven Down doesn't have much time for Tours, FL doesn't seem to have much time anyway, CC was inscribed for a moment but already said he wasn't sure he could join before. And of course the great Manghi unfortunately missing too, he only starts in the afternoon when he's sure to win.

But ok, instead we got some visitors, Gipfel, Moja, Palas, so can't complain about 7 teams. Especially since Mobster seemed unsure as well yesterday.

The tour:

Sprints: Surprisingly weak group. Gabel 86, Bosilj 85, vanGödrich 82, Skoglund 82... There's 4 clear sprints, a possible 5th and a possible 6th as well for me. Especially with teams like Moja and Mobster have, they can get easily get those sprints. Instead Moja comes without sprinter, but an enormous amount of useless classics with 60 reg... no idea what for, but I think he'll show us later. Then Mobster only with Skoglund. Ok, as the group is bringing Krog and Skoglund he would have been the clear favorite every sprint and would have had to ride a lot alone. So from that point of view, even sort of makes sense to bring only Skoglund. But normally in a rather sprint friendly tour like here... I'd bring my top sprinter. I did actually, juut that he has only 86. Green, after today Skoglund vs Karatzoglou.
Yes, the 2 sprinter teams missed the sprint, the one 7 almost 40km from the goal was enough... Mostly T-Mobile just too strong, but AAD rode well too, Moja as well, although it's rather unclear for what really. Mobster even came in only after a few km. In the back Quaghebeur and Zielinski in immediately, but wasn't enough. In front mass too, 6" in the end, but it wasn't really close.

GC. Trakhtenbrot 87, Hun 85, Ardila+Basterretxea 84, Berg 83. That's the mountain GC guys. Schwackhöfer with the 84 TT will gain lots and lots of time in the GC, some more in the pavé stage, but will lose time in the mountains. Lots of it, stage 12 if somebody rides vs him he can lose 5+ minutes there alone. But of course with Trakhtenbrot there that blocks the climbers a bit too, so riding for Schwackhöfer from some point on might even be possible.
So to make it short, clear favorite: Ardila. Ahn no, Alive or Dead. If he can beat Ardila. Ok ok, Alive or Dead, Trakhtenbrot the first favorite, depending on how it all develops he might be able to change to Franz if he prefers that. Challengers Hun and Ardila (Basterretxea), Palas and Donkey. Both with 2 climbers, Trakhtenbrot can't cover all 4. In Palas' case the leader is clear, it's Hun. In Big Donkey's case less, but Ardila no 1 and the Donkey announcing that he will ride for him.... can we trust him? Yes, in Donkey we trust. But of course if there's an opening for Basterretxea, we will take that. Berg seems the only other guy that can hope to win it, isolated on top, but good team with classics. And at 24 like Basterretxea he can hope to train more.

Stage hunters, esapers.
Would have expected Moja, Palas to do the attacks in the flat or flatter stages, possibly Gipfel too, with being no 3 in sprint on paper. Then Mobile, Moja, Falkenbier, Gipfel in the hillier ones.
But after stage 1 a race with quite a lot of attacks seems likely. AAD and Mobster showed the 2 sprinter teams that for them it makes no sense to control. Today even without having to control they had no chance to come back, so that means that in the future early attacks before the last sieb km will most likely not be chased by the 2 sprinter teams. But by the 2 hill sprinter teams, or by nobody at all. So the stage hunters, Moja, Gipfel, Palas on flat stages, possibly joined by Falkenbier and Big Donkey if the hill sprinter teams show a reluctance to control and let groups through risk making the 2 hill sprinter teams work quite a lot. Of course if they work for their green chances early... the sprinters might join at some point, but certainly not before the last sieb tomorrow. Or stage 5... Stage 10 will be for the sprinters, other than that stage hunters have pretty good chances to go through at this point. That means stage 2, 5, 8.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:38 am

Yeah we have a race thread. :!:

First stage turned out to be calm, was already fearing everybody attacking and me riding alone after the reg classics. After the sieb, Moja rode which made it impossible to wait for the Mobster riders and also vanGödrich, would have liked to have them in front. But like this, just gave it a try, thought we have no chance, tbo. Also thought Eckerstorfer had to go in too early, but Zgraggen not strong enough to attack. Sprint was hectical, wanted to make a train but forgot to put out helper settings for Trakthenbrot. Don't know how I should win against Skoglund but 1) worked together well and 2) he is sprinting from new version so I have a chance he sprints the wrong way. In a regular sprint, there is hardly any chance for Karatzoglou to be better than place 5 and he will most likely lose skills during the next training, and he already lost points to Skoglund, which doesn't make him a green candidate in my eyes. (The 15 points will be caught up by the winner of the next sprint).

Let's see what happens today, T-Mobile-A already said he will not be online. Alliances can change! Have no interesst to ride against sprinters alone today, can start the controlling, but just makes sense to some point. Don't think that Roby is the spokesman for all the sprinter teams here. If you want your sprinters win, you also have to work for them. No need to blame me for going for my chances at STAGE 1, where it is clear my priorities later on change and I might not get a second chance to try it.

GC wise there are still a lot of questions open. On the paper Boaz looks like the favorite, still lack in Reg and pave can hurt him.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:43 am

Chase for Yellow Jersey, after 01/12 stages
00:00:00 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
00:00:04 Attila Hun (Palasteam)
00:00:04 Kjell Skoglund (T-Mobile-A)

Days in Yellow Jersey
1 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by riders:
1 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by teams:
1 Alive And Dead
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Tue Dec 07, 2021 1:22 pm

No no, it's not about blame, it's about mathematics. Yesterday showed that you and Mobster with some Moja are able to keep us away after a single 7, without anybody actually having to ride before, so no advantage for either "team". And it even wasn't especially close, I thought we would come closer. So the conclusion is that I feel we sprinters need an energy/helping advantage to be able to come back. So it's you and Mobster that need to ride if you want to win too. With the 2 sprinter stages coming up, one has many more climbs but further away than yesterday and a 4 2 finish (I think that's the next one, not loading c4f now, time travel too bothersome), there at +2 Skoglund is not even necessarily weaker than Gabel/Bosilj and the other has lots of up and down after the sieb and looked critical even before yesterday. So for me, equal work before the last sieb on those stages looks like a very bad idea for my team... Today not sure anyway, I'll be working behind to catch up mostly....

Anyway, you won't have to do that much GC controlling, with all the TT and mountains coming there's really few riders (of the ones likely to attack) that you have to keep within 10'. So mostly you riding or not will be about if you want to try the stages with Karatzoglou (or Schwackhöfer again). Mathematics, not blame!
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Tue Dec 07, 2021 6:44 pm

Stage 2, sprint, as originally expected but after seeing the group wasn't that clear anymore. And after yesterday even less.

GPM attack by Moja, Mayer and Hoffman, 79 and 76-78, that's probably the 2 only non climbers that AAD actually has to control. Everybody else, including Espariat really can win 10' and still poses no danger to Boaz IMO, those 2 yes. So he had to ride, did, even if I thought he let them quite a bit of time... The 2 hills ridden easily, so after that with Mobster being offline (if he's on, sorry, no, I don't join, at least not for another 50km or so, I've been chasing that guy without catching him way too often now...) with the deficit just under 8' Donkey and Falkenbier joined. And we gained nice time, while I was actually seriously worried at that point that we might have to invest a lot, it was exceedingly easy. Moja not wanting to put Mayer under reg probably helped a lot, if they decide to try all and if necessary kill the 2 leaders too., go in green with them while the pullers ride blue, then it's more difficult to catch them IMO. Like this, easy, STakhanov for me, Hammami for Falkenbier, while AAD gave us power with Fortnow even. Only a little sieb at the 7, then it seemed under control, only danger really Thijs, but with Mobster joining late and joining tempo, no chance for him. Otherwise... not sure, but Quaghebeur was fit, Heeb too, might be enough on the last km. Who knows.

Sprint, the expected train for Bosilj, I have no choice but to hang on him. Kind of boring, but here it's really the only thing to do. Then today AAD went early for Franz with Alexandros from the back, forcing Falkenbier to put in Zgraggen and then Mak earlier than he otherwise would have, but he could have waited another 50 meters anyway. Even 100? But no risk, right decision, Bosilj at 100, Gabel comes out at 50 and loses by half a wheel length. Ok for me actually, happy we got a sprint. Hope we get another 2, maybe 3... but well, with the Mobster MOnsterteam there it can be hard. We'll see.

For green Skoglund with quite a nice advantage over Bosilj, even more to Gabel. IF we get 3 sprints (but I'm not that confident, especially 8 seems very difficult, 10 easy) then for green it's between those 3... Normally 1-2 is Bosilj-Gabel, not necessarily in this order of course. Hopefully. Van Gödrich/Skoglund third. But Skoglund might have stage 9, hard stage but if he invests and rides with AAD nicely, he can maybe keep the Mojas (and other classics) under control. So would say Skoglund favored, but far from won, let's not forget that he has to play on the new version so it's harder for him. For me winning a stage, Bosilj another 2, Skoglund green would be fine actually...

But first the TT tomorrow, a slow affair most likely, Franz with a huge advantage in GC, but Boaz the closest of the climbers and in pole position. The real question is really who will have how many and which riders under reg. Quaghebeur, Gabel, Espariat, hm, kind of worried about them, and how useful they will be in the 2 following days. Stage 4 not really a recovering stage, so another problem for a stage 5 sprint. Grrrr. Stakhanov might have quite a bit of work to do for Gabel and Quaghebeur on Thursday. And Tran loading Gabel. Moretti sent back once dropped to load Quaghebeur? Brrr.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Dec 07, 2021 7:09 pm

Chase for Yellow Jersey, after 02/12 stages
00:00:00 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
00:00:04 Kjell Skoglund (T-Mobile-A)
00:00:04 Thomas Mayer (Team-Mojabahs)

Days in Yellow Jersey
2 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by riders:
1 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
1 Klemen Bosilj (Falkenbier)

Stage wins by teams:
1 Alive And Dead
1 Falkenbier
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Wed Dec 08, 2021 5:22 pm

EDITED because of idiocies...

TT done, winner of the day Trakhtenbrot. Stage winner Schwackhöfer, but Trakhtenbrot the guy with the biggest gains.

Berg 1'45"
Hun 1'58"
Expectation 1'21". For same reg. I think, made a complete mess of the calculation in the chat... misread a 1 for a 4 on my piece of paper than calculated something else. Huge win by Boaz here. With less reg he was expected to win less than the same reg expectation, not more. Unless my calculation is still off. AAD should try...

Basterretxea 2'20"
Ardila 3'
HEre the expected time loss with same reg and all again was 2'10" So again, Trakhtenbrot wins big. And here we can see it well with Ardila, same reg as Trakhtenbrot. but 50" below expectations. Anyway, let's say Boaz overperformed by almost a minute. Looking at it like that Basterretxea actually did fairly well.

But in reality nothing changes :D Best climber with best TT, if we're at 1' or 3' we need to wait for mistakes.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:11 pm

Chase for Yellow Jersey, after 03/12 stages
00:00:00 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
00:03:29 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)
00:04:51 Thabani Mbule (Falkenbier)

Days in Yellow Jersey
3 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by riders:
2 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
1 Klemen Bosilj (Falkenbier)

Stage wins by teams:
2 Alive And Dead
1 Falkenbier
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Thu Dec 09, 2021 6:44 pm

Next stage, next AAD... Boaz time now. Risks to continue too.

Not an unexpected win of course, the manner though a bit. Early group goes, was clear that if AAD wants the stage it has no chance at all. He can give them 15' and still catch them easily. As it was he gave them a bit under 10' Or even only 8'? Then control, used 2 riders, down to 6'. Km 102 as expected serious stuff started, for a moment I was thinking about going with my great climbers already there, but after looking at is again was clear that idea was dumb. So wait for 151, the 17. Risk of course that there a strong guy is in tempo and I have to go red or blue, wanted to go green. But at 17... anywy, km 100 Schröder and Hoffman go, didn't really seem the right moment for them to be honest, either the earlier climb, then have Jäger in front carry them over the long flat part then have them collect mountain points after that. Like this seemed... .a bit late was clear that from km 151 on the tempo would be high.

Then km 151 Oetker in, I was too impressed waited with the attack one km, change to red take out. Should have gone there, should have realized that most likely Oetker wasn't that fit, that he wanted to keep Schwackhöfer and Detreköi after that, siebing them here... but thought ok, he siebs all, I go the next km. He siebed nobody, still went, 33". Hun with me, all in, good collaboration. But with km 161-165 coming, mostly flat, I feared we would be caught at 166 already. Turned out we did better than expected in the flat, only caught and overtaken at km 168, a 14. Attack by Boaz, he's 8" or 9" ahead, but Peter and Berg who weren't siebed ride up to us.
Perfect situation for us in the back. Ardila-Hun-Basterretxea not fit, after the earlier attack, Berg and Peter on the other hand fit. All ride, keep him in check, Berg most likely goes in the last climb, wins the stage, but for ARdila-Basterretxea it's nice too, minimal timeloss for them vs Trakthenbrot. But after doing the last km of the climb yes alone, a 5, very nice, Berg goes out. At a -3. Why? Donkey asking, come on, after 2 km he's back in. But by then I was pissed off and out. Come on, strongest rider and he thinks he wants more breaks? Even if only 2 km, forget it. I'm out. If we all ride stage chances for him over 50%, seemed possible we catch him, after seeing how it actually went pretty sure we do. Way do we even need to convince him to ride in a situation like this? Ridiculous. I was ready to ride with pretty minimal win chances, wasn't asking for any no attack agreements, just ride to get him, good for my GC hopes, as little as they are, then Berg and Peter can do whatever they want in the last climb to get Boaz. Don'0t know, my expectations too high, people seeing the situation, understanding it and riding for their excellent chances. Anyway, out for Donkey, Berg out again too, but Peter kept riding and saving Berg's stage it seemed, 11" before the next climb. Berg in yes alone, 9", after the 5% it's 6", then the 8%. He doesn't attack, no idea why, he'd have the stage most likely. But rides and we're at 4". Of course I'm out again... Why would I ride for Berg's stage now. All he had to do was ride the 2 downhill km, which cost less than the fighting Asier and El guapo did on the 8%. Then last 2 km 3 2... either he can just ride that too, get Boaz, rely on the sprint. But vs 2 Donkeys, even if unfit, 2 Palas, both less fit and Boaz, unfit it's a bit of a lottery, there the win isn't sure anymore. So maybe try the attacxk on 3? No idea if we can follow, but worth a try? But whatever he decides to do, riding the 2 downhill km seems clear. Plus of course in the flat one of mine would have been in, in case I can't follow, less flat, less energy... So Berg goes out too in the downhill, ok, one of mine in, too late, 33" back. Lucky, but deserved win by AAD. Annoying GC time loss for me. Yes, I could have continued to ride once Moja finally came in at km 172, but as I said, if I need to convince the favorite to ride, while I'm riding... I'm ok with losing 1' then. Peter from Palas then saved us in the flat. in the final then if I just ride the 2 downhill km probably Berg wins the stage, I lose little to Boaz, but... annoying but I'm fine with it too after all. Moja not interested in GC and stage he said. He wants white and red. Apart from the weirdness of these goals, he certainly didn't help himself for white. When I say ARdila is my leader, that's who my leader is, Basterrretxea planned to help him mostly. But ok, the further away I'm from yellow, the more I'll have to concentrate on white. So from basically a white without opposition for Berg we might go towards a fight for white at some point. For the moment I still dream of the GC, but that might change.

Tomorrow no Mobster online for most of the stage probably he said. Good, no siebs! Then the Gabel-Bosilj try starting earlier even kind of makes sense! Sprint here we come. Maybe.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:24 pm

So I should tell something about my brilliant TT. Here we go. Boaz was meant to finish with 950 - 480 = 470 in the worst case. So starting at minimum of 950 today, he was at 963 today, which seemed reasonable enough for a stage were he will most likely be attacked and probably not able to win in the end because of defending himself. Start of the TT went as predicted, go with 75% as long as possible and switch to 100%. Given the energy loss without pave, I predicted a path and wanted to adjust to the actual loss when the first pave kms are ridden. Turns out energy on pave was not higher, even lower for hilly passage. So I could go 100% from there and be safe with my energy.

August of course not fit, while starting with 1000 in the TT, he had to start with around 950 today, Schwacki and Detreköi at 1000, rest of the helpers not under 950. Started way to early to chase the group today, true, just 55 mountain guys and hard tempo in the end anyways. But really wanted to try for stage today. Then somehow overreacted to the Moja attack, just reallized he has 4 guys who can attack me all the time with their 60reg. But just going for mountain points, slow down again. Would have attacked at the 17-17 combi too. Also thought about attacking there, but way to long for Boaz and teams with 2 climbers that would probably catch him back + reg reasons. So thought August does the job, he is pretty useless latter on and turns out he just got siebed in the downhill. At least he managed to scare the donkeys, otherwise way harder (or easier because than the tactic would have been clearer). First thought was: Just ride the mountain and get rid of the climbers at the 14 with a sieb. Normally they should have fought already, but not too steep and confidence was low (not optimal helper management, not at 1000 at start) + the guys in front were at 9 seconds, don't think siebing them was possible. In the end a lucky win and staying in reg without trying to follow/sprint in the end.

Tomorrow I will hopefully recover, for sure not ride against any sprinter teams. If I can help you much is the question, time differences start to grow, so depending on the group probably not. Blocking in the end I can offer Akos for sure.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:35 pm

Now including all climbers, classement is clearer now.

Chase for Yellow Jersey, after 04/12 stages
00:00:00 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
00:00:51 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)
00:03:16 Toni Berg (Team-Mojabahs)
00:03:29 Atila Hun (Palasteam)
00:03:52 Asier Basterretxea (Big Donkey)
00:04:37 Ivan Ardilla (Big Donkey)
00:04:42 Levente Peter (Palasteam)

Days in Yellow Jersey
4 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by riders:
2 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
1 Klemen Bosilj (Falkenbier)
1 Boaz Trahktenbrot (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by teams:
3 Alive And Dead
1 Falkenbier
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Fri Dec 10, 2021 6:14 pm

Fine stage, not much to edit, no new winner and all times the same. So Bosilj with the second win. Decided to go for the reverted sprint. With some luck a 3rd or 4th place for Schwackhöfer but just finished 5th. At least Falke had to use his train and not just going slow because everybody hanging on everybody. Max points for Schwackhöfer was the plan, don't believe in his green chances, but they are at least better than Karazoglou's. Even if I wanted, team was pretty dead, so good to have a recovery day. Tomorrow looks better again, just the Moja siebs for nothing were a bit annoying, usually he goes in for some points, but there were no points left. Anyway, tomorrow mountain finish and day before the rest day. Usually this means action.

Chase for Yellow Jersey, after 05/12 stages
00:00:00 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
00:00:51 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)
00:03:16 Toni Berg (Team-Mojabahs)
00:03:29 Atila Hun (Palasteam)
00:03:52 Asier Basterretxea (Big Donkey)
00:04:37 Ivan Ardilla (Big Donkey)
00:04:42 Levente Peter (Palasteam)

Days in Yellow Jersey
5 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by riders:
2 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
2 Klemen Bosilj (Falkenbier)
1 Boaz Trahktenbrot (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by teams:
3 Alive And Dead
2 Falkenbier
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Fri Dec 10, 2021 6:40 pm

With Mobster online and going for sprint, easy sprint finally. Moja went for mountain points, Gipfel tried the stage win, but that was difficult. Maybe after all he should have told Moja that he would let him the mountain points without fight, then Hoffmann keeps some more energy, and later they can indeed ride together. But even then I think difficult.

Sprint, the expected 2 trains somehow, I thought AAD would go for Schwackhöfer, first time I'm right about anything this Tour? Makes sense, I don't believe much in his chances to win it with a normal train. He's fast at first becaue Karatzoglou is in front, if it's Detreköi-Schwäckhöfer, Zgraggen and Mak really can control them, even on plus 2 I think, will be ahead of the train. I think. Even with Heeb as no 1. But academic discussion, he went for Schwackhöfer. For me he looks good for green. To try at least. If by stage 8 or 9 he realizes that it makes no sense vs Skoglund or even Bosilj (or a resurrected Gabel, brumm brumm!!!) he still can try for a Karatzoglou win.
Anyway, the 2 trains, unfortunately for me GAbel behind Skoglund, there it really was over for me. Last sprint 8 or 9 pixels behind, half a wheel, hoped for more this time, but being behind Skoglund it was between those 2. Close sprint again, Bosilj by 5 pixels, according to my unreliable source (myself, but that's secret)

So green now is
68 Schwackhöfer
62 Skoglund
50 Bosilj

Most likely these 3. Bosilj needs to win both remaining sprint stages and have me getting second., so Skoglund max 3. Then he wins 18 points on him and is 6 ahead. Next he needs a group to go through on stage 9. Binggeli! And in additon to that he probably still needs to win some intermediates along the way, if there are any easy ones. So kind of difficult for him.
Skoglund, probably better chances than Schwackhöfer I'd say. Stage 9 really decisive between those 2. Or/and a sprint on stage 8, even restricted, so without Bosilj and Gabel, but winning it this time. Not a group attacking. And depending on stage 9 some intermediates too maybe?
Schwackhöfer.. just defending, lose as few points to Skoglund as possible, and he too can maybe try intermediates. Unless he wants to try the podium but don't think he really has chances there, even with the pavé stage coming.

Tomorrow mountain, mountain means Boaz. With a rather soft finish Berg of course with his 60 flat a danger, but then his manager seems a danger to Berg too when it comes to stage wins... so I'll stick with Boaz as prediction tomorrow. Or a Donkey!
Action before the rest day, yes, no. Yes, but not because the leader, awesome AAD can spend more than usually too. And he has reg, so action yes, possible, but he has pretty good chances of controlling it. Depending on the fitness too of course.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Gipfelstuermer » Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:10 pm

A race thread! Nice! Certainly one of the better features of afternoon tours, that usually there is a good race thread with multiple team managers contributing.

So let's try to contribute for our Gipfelstuermer team, as probably here we can contribute more than in the race. We came here as cannon fodder. Cheapest team with 442k salary and there are 3 teams with more than 550k salary. That's what I don't like about the afternoon. They are all rich!

But at least they let me escape every day so we can collect some money on the way. So far, every stage has been the same and the story is quickly told: Usually we escape, sometimes Moja joins to steal GPM points, all the other teams ride in peloton, then Falkenbier or AAD wins. All the other teams? Well, we are only 7 and Palas has not been very active. Big Donkey and T-Mobile-A unlucky in the sprints so far.

Let's see what happens during the second week.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Sat Dec 11, 2021 6:15 pm

Next stage, next AAD win. Let's hope the second week gives us some new winners. Even Oetker would be ok...

Stage, not much to say, today AAD wasn't attackable, with the rest day coming he could react to anything today. Only chance was early when he was offline, but I thought I'm not that desperate yet. And even then he catches any attack that goes then easily.

I tried some pretty pointless Moretti-Lambert attack, unfortunately for me Moja had something else planned there, he attacked too but then siebed. Actually the better plan. So 5 Donkeys in front, the remaining 4 weren't far from rejoining actually later, but that would really have made no difference either. All the final climb. Boaz a bit surprisingly goes already on the first 9. Nobody else in tempo, immediately a big advantage. In the back then.. .I attacked the next km, I know that we won't have any cooperation between me, Palas and Moja, so made no sense to ride with one of my riders then. Try going with both, as suspected followed, then ride with ARdila, knowing that the rest would be on Basterretxea I could then at least attack, get second position and some time for second place in GC possibly. But still far away, right now 5+6th. 1-2 AAD with Boaz and Schwackhöfer, then Berg at 4'08" third, at 5'07" Ardila as 6th. So will be those 2 plus Hun and Basterretxea in between that most likely will get second and third in GC. Not usually something to ride for, but I'll probably end up riding for that soon.

Most exciting fight is for green, Skoglund now the favorite after Falkenbier controlled for the first IS. Skoglund won it, now same amount of points as Schwackhöfer, but behind on GC time. He should take over on stage 8. And stage 9 then most likely decisive.

White seems good for Berg, but I might try to go for white too depending on training and how the quest for yellow with ARdila goes. Respectively the quest for the podium :lol:

Mountain, still Hoffmann, but Boaz is there, and Basterretxea announced some interest too. Hoffmann rode the whole first 1 category climb in the peloton, so... seemed logic to get those easy points then, Basterretxea in tempo, Hoffmann gone. Not sure why Hoffmann thought it was a good idea like this... 50-42-41 now, of course Trakhtenbrot risks winning it by default. Hoffmann most likely won't do the same mistake as today again, will see what Basterretxea has planned. Again, usually don't care much about the mountain jersey, only ride for it in the last days if I'm automatically in a good position, I'm now with little chance for stages vs Boaz and for GC vs Boaz, so why not, we'll see.

Tomorrow rest day, let's see what happens. Because our riders train on the rest day.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Sat Dec 11, 2021 8:31 pm

Just saw that Falke is going for IS, so was not fully here in the beginning. Than a well controllable group. Just went in about 15km before the +7, forgot to go faster to avoid the attacks. 2x Donkey and 2 Mojas hanging there. But after that, good to control. Plan for the last hill was Oetker, than finally attack, but as nobody even blocked with a classic guy I thought I give it a try with an early attack. Worked fine and Boaz with 2nd stage win. Will enjoy the rest day on Sunday, we should have more tours like that, usually restdays on Monday, very annoying.

Chase for Yellow Jersey, after 06/12 stages
00:00:00 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)
00:02:54 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
00:04:08 Toni Berg (Team-Mojabahs)
00:04:30 Atila Hun (Palasteam)
00:04:58 Asier Basterretxea (Big Donkey)
00:05:07 Ivan Ardilla (Big Donkey)
00:05:49 Levente Peter (Palasteam)

Days in Yellow Jersey
5 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
1 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by riders:
2 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
2 Klemen Bosilj (Falkenbier)
2 Boaz Trahktenbrot (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by teams:
4 Alive And Dead
2 Falkenbier
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Sat Dec 11, 2021 8:35 pm

I take credit for the Sunday rest day, thank you! Outstanding advice by the Donkey to other designers, Pokemon followed that advice!

And I demand that Weezel the cake eating mobster contribute something here!
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Mon Dec 13, 2021 6:24 pm

So back after the rest day. Short but very hard stage. In the beginning T-Mobile-A went for sprint pts. Franz also got some by doing blue tempo and 5 pts for place 11 in the stage. Early attacks by Donkey and Mojas classics, thought that would happen but was surprised Basterretxea follows immediately at the next climb. Was planned to chase the classics hard but they get enought time until lap 3 or 4 were I expected the attack. After seeing Basterretxea in tempo right at the next climb, I was a bit surprised again. But thought he just goes for mountain points. Than somehow the race was dead. Noone attacking or siebing in the back. I could ride my tempo and finally sieb with Oetker. Was not really sure how to ride the last 2 climbs, thought about going early too, or sieb and work together with Hun. Could have waited one lap longer and just hang on Hun (if Palas makes a double attack there). Than Alexandros would have had to ride a whole lap and be under reg. On the last cat 1 climb Palas woke up after me siebing my classics, he rode and didn't let me back, having a helper advantage for one lap. Then Boaz attacked on the +14 7km before the end and gained enough time to win his 3rd stage here. Podium looks more like Boaz, Berg and Hun now. Donkey's climber somehow the only ones trying to attack and get punished by simply too strong Boaz.

Chase for Yellow Jersey, after 07/12 stages
00:00:00 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)
00:04:49 Toni Berg (Team-Mojabahs)
00:05:00 Atila Hun (Palasteam)
00:05:44 Ivan Ardilla (Big Donkey)
00:06:33 Levente Peter (Palasteam)
00:07:10 Asier Basterretxea (Big Donkey)

Days in Yellow Jersey
5 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
2 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by riders:
3 Boaz Trahktenbrot (Alive And Dead)
2 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
2 Klemen Bosilj (Falkenbier)

Stage wins by teams:
5 Alive And Dead
2 Falkenbier
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Mon Dec 13, 2021 7:56 pm

Today my plan was simple. 1) Try for red. Basterretxea. 2)Try for stage. Either Basterretxea or Ardila with a later attack. 3) GC attack! That was as likely as Skoglund getting sprint points in the first sprint. eh. ah, ok, bad comparison. Was unlikely as a classic winning the stage.

So Asier went soon, worked well, do the mountain, the annoying endless flat and the last km to the GPM. Then wait for the Mojas with Espariat and Lambert chasing a bit behind. Managed to keep Lambert with Schröder after one lap? Good. Then made life difficult a bit by not going red at +15 in the lap I knew I had to go alone, so had to go red in the endless flat then, since I didn't drop Hoffmann green. Anyway, got the red jersey at least for a day and I'm not in a bad position with Asier now. He can hope to score big in the last stage, just have to make sure Hoffmann doesn't get too big an advantage till then. And hope Boaz doesn't get interested in that too.

Stage... there was a very tempting situation when we were at 3 min or so, attack with Ardila, have Lambert wait, ride the endless flat, catch Basterretxea after the GPM, then have Asier ride for Ardila. But decided to concentrate on one thing finally. The attack certainly could have made the stage interesting, but since I suspected to have Hun and Berg, possibly Peter (that would be good) on my wheel.. somehow it seemed it would just jeopardize red points. Second concern the same, even with nobody hanging Boaz will ride faster. He might not have been super mega ultra interested in the stage anymore, possible, after winning 2 maybe he thought 3 is nice but not completely necessary, but even then, if he just increases the tempo a bit without chasing really hard it still costs Asier mountain points. And the stage chances... really depends, ,possible probably, but not sure how likely. That was the end of the awesom GC attack too of course. :lol:

But agree with AAD that the stage was ridden very softly. Why not try with Peter for Palas? Early Peter, if it works great, if not nothing lost really. Peter Hun double can go too. risk of followers, but having 2 guys he can just use Peter first and look if today some cooperation is possible later. Of course if Boaz himself hangs, the stage chances are not that good again, but they really weren't better this way. Even by blocking the km Boaz attacked, 13 I think... hard to come back, but Attila actually gained 1" from then on? Or lost a bit, forgot, was it 25" or 27" or 21" or what after the attack? Anyway, having 2 guys, AND the strongest climber besides Boaz, if you wait for the final climb, you HAVE to use Peter to block there. I put in Ardila, but forgot he was still on green.. had it been red, better of course. But still think not enough actually. But anyway, it wasn't really my job to do that actually, no idea why I tried, really was 100% for Peter to do.
Other option for a more offensive ride would have been Berg attacking, to a) protect Hoffmann's lead in the GPM by getting points. b) to try for the stage. Having Schröder and Hoffmann in front, Schröder carries him the first flat part after the attack, Berg then either convinces me to ride the downhill or waits for Schröder or rides with Berg, doesn't cost much anyway, then just goes red the 15 at the next climb, hoping to drop Asier, then keeps going with a mixture of red/blue green. Unlikely it works too, but seeing that Asier only needed 2 min more finally...An attack at 15 when Fortnow was riding gives you already lots of time, being fresher than Asier and stronger in the endless flat makes you lose much less time.
But nothing happened, neither I, Palas nor Moja tried anything (Asier doesn't really count, that was only for red from the start, normally 0 chances to go through). So finally turned out rather easy for Boaz.

Green now looks like Bosilj is out too. Skoglund lost some points but tomorrow and after tomorrow looks rather good for him. Tomorrow any kind of sprint is good for him, without the flat guys or with, probably not much difference points wise.
Without us he either wins or gets second normally. NORMALLY. While Schwackhöfer gets 3rd 4th.. NORMALLY. All depends a bit on AAD's priorities, Karatzoglou win or green. Anyway, 4-12 points win for Skoglund normally. With us he can expect to get second or third... or a win, he wasn't that far from Bosilj, form, energy, more up and down, less flat, better for Skoglund. But let's say he gets second. In that case very likely AAD goes for Schwackhöfer and gets 4th to 6th again. 7-10 points for Skoglund. Thursday then pretty sure with us. He gets third or fourth? Schwackhöfer 6th absolute max, rather less, let's say 8th. That's another 8 points or so. Let's say he gains 16 points in those 2 stages finishes anyway, then up 11. IS in those 2 stages difficult for both, but if then Schwackhöfer likelier, a km tempo hurts him less. But if necessary that's easily countered with red mass tempo by Mobster. So decisive WEdnesday, the only real middle mountain stage of the Tour. Here hard to say, With 6 6 at 133/134 it's possible that Fortnow stays ahead of Skoglund, but then the 7 at 138.... most likely there Hofbauer Ritzinger can bring Skoglund back? If the sieb is only there highly unlikely that Fortnow stays, then normally Ritzinger can bring back Detreköi, still 35 km to go, but if AAD goes for Schwackhöfer respectively green, not Karatzoglou, and he gets help, and mass, Palas, Moja with their high 50 sprinters, Schwackhöfer promises to ride a few km himself... then could become hard. But no normally that stage is either an escape going through or Skoglund vs Karatzoglou.

Last stage IT, Schwackhöfer much better chances, but here Hofbauer can cover a bit, if sieb doesn't work an attack?
So overall I'd say Skoglund slight favorite, even if AAD goes all out for Schwackhöfer and has him as first option, not Karatzoglou. Of course knowing AAD he'll manage to win the 2 stages in question with Karatzoglou thus helping save Schwackhöfers green :lol: Poor Mobster... but I'll offer to found a loser club with him if he wants. I'll leave the club at the Giro though, Ardila-Basterretxea have promised me to be unbeatable by then.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Mon Dec 13, 2021 8:18 pm

Think it was 27 seconds after the attack. If Palas blocks with Peter and than rides a bit with Hun (he was the only one out of tempo there), might be close, still think would be enough for Boaz.
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
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  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:02 pm

So, Asier eliminated from the list, got overtaken from Franz again. Franz lost the green jersey for the first time now and doesn't look too good he can keep it. Stage was interessting, group could have a big chance if Asier wasn't there. With Mobsters sitter off and Falke and Donkey not too motivated to ride before the steep kms, it would have been the best chance today. Still with just 2 riders not too promissing. Tomorrow hard from the start, so getting a gap usually harder there.

Chase for Yellow Jersey, after 08/12 stages
00:00:00 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)
00:04:49 Toni Berg (Team-Mojabahs)
00:05:00 Atila Hun (Palasteam)
00:05:44 Ivan Ardilla (Big Donkey)
00:06:33 Levente Peter (Palasteam)

Days in Yellow Jersey
5 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
3 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by riders:
3 Boaz Trahktenbrot (Alive And Dead)
3 Klemen Bosilj (Falkenbier)
2 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by teams:
5 Alive And Dead
3 Falkenbier
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Robyklebt » Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:20 pm

Pretty stupid stage...
27 points max to get for the mountain jersey. Logically I thought Hoffmann might try, so my brilliant masterplan for the day was: Win the first 3 points, then let him go and concentrate on getting a sprint. So Stakhanov, attack by Asier, he wins it, Hoffmann 1 point, 14 advantage, 24 to get, he can have 10 points advantage, ok for me. Then.... nobody thought about simply doing 1 km of tempo to catch me. So did green tempo in downhill, uphill, got 1' advantage, or even 1'30"? Now 2-3 km needed :lol: Still nobody bothers. Gipfel attacks, gets me, if he attacks me I'm not following, but he wanted to take me with him... so helped a bit in mountains and downhills when I didn't forget it, in the back poor AAD had to work. Wasn't really his job today. T-Mobile but with a busy sitter. Moja for red. Or then me and Falkenbier in the hopes for a sprint. Anyway, Asier lots of points, now 33 advantage. But pretty annoying way to ride, hope this tour is finished soon and I can forget red jerseys for 5 years or so.
Stage: Moja at the cat 2 did a sieb rode, our advantage collapsed, 2', I still helped as good as dead Asier could, but no chance for Poudrier. Asier was always going to drop after the cat 3 or the last cat 4.... Last siebable km, sieb, stupid stupid Donkey has ARdila there, soft sieb so Moretti Quaghebeur in front, drop back, but then T Mobster the sitter SEven Down stopped again, letting me back. Thanks, but unnecessary, my own fault really. Well my wife's, think I did strange helping for Gabel after STakhanov and Tran were dropped, so added Ardila, took him off seconds too slow. Anyway, I was let back without a crazy chase then easy sprint, I did little, got second. Bosilj superior with his train, this time it was pretty clear second, probably double the pixels of last time. After getting Bosiljis wheel, unexpected, thought my helping was faulty, I of course hoped to win, but clear loss. Skoglund didn't start fit, that's why I go the wheel..

Tomorrow, lots of points, 40, thought I fight for it tomorrow, after getting all those points today maybe I let it be and hope to gain enough on the last day? We'll see. Seven Down if Hoffmann gets all Asier 0! Ha

Most exciting fight right now is green:

Skoglund 95
Schwackhöfer 91
Bosilj 84
Berg 83

Skoglund favorite, Tomorrow sprint (Karatzoglou wins) or classics (Schwackhöfer)... depends all on that I think. Wednesday normally it's Bosilj-Gabel-Skoglund (VanGödrich) again. so gaining points on Schwackhöfer.
Bosilj only has chances if tomorrow it's a classic win, but not by Schwackhöfer (so Detreköi?) and Skoglund doesn't score too much. But even with 0 Skoglund points, 11 points difference, he needs to win (but Gabel wants too..) and Skoglund be 4th. So all rather unlikely, mostly because Skoglund will score tomorrow normally.
Berg with outside chances? Unlikely, he will get points on the last day, tomorrow too most likely, but with the sprint on Thursday chanceless. But good work being where he is.
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Falkenbier » Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:30 pm

Bosilj again! After Boaz' 3rd stage win yesterday, he showed the perfect reaction.

The team didn't plan to ride early for a sprint today. T-Mobile off, the Donkey in front with... Asier? GC attack!!! Ah wait, it was for the mountains jersey... but sill AAD started to control the peloton after a while, not that something strange will happen here. So, perfect situation for Falkenbier, didn't have to ride until the last Sieb possibility. Then the team was ready to ride full power. Ardila there in the sprinters group, too! Donkey in danger, big interested to come back as soon a possible, help from Francis was demanded, but then T-Mobile stopped the tempo in front, all together again. Ok, not all, a gruppetto in the back was formed, vonGödrich as only sprint guy there.
After that, nobody tried to attack, mass sprint coming. Today no AAD-train, good for me. Heeb-Mak-Zgraggen-Bosilj, as usual. Then Gabel in Klemen's wheel, Skoglund behind. Gable that strong today? No! Bosilj with his 3rd stage win, even won it with a bit more space than the first 2. Skoglund not fully fit at the start, that explains why he was behind Gabel.

Small chance for green still there for Bosilj, but really depends what will happen tomorrow. No chance for Bosilj/Gabel. But will T-Mobile be able to get a sprint for Skoglund? AAD will help for it? Or will we see a crazy Moja tomorrow?

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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by flockmastoR » Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:00 pm

Well, no new team as stage winner today. Mbule too strong for Faye today. Group was first carried by Moja who was going for mountain points with Hofmann. Then after the sieb, Gips Casper Catteau was pulling Faye and Mbule. In the back noone really wanted to ride hard fast and the group got over 10minutes easily before Catteau had to ride. So it was clear pretty early, that usually the group goes through. Final sprint in the peloton was interessting for Green. Franz could finish in front of Kjell and is now 3 points behind him and 6 points ahead of Bosilj. I would still say Kjell is favorite, but situation for Franz is fine.

Chase for Yellow Jersey, after 09/12 stages
00:00:00 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)
00:04:49 Toni Berg (Team-Mojabahs)
00:05:00 Atila Hun (Palasteam)
00:05:44 Ivan Ardilla (Big Donkey)
00:06:33 Levente Peter (Palasteam)

Days in Yellow Jersey
5 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
4 Boaz Trakhtenbrot (Alive And Dead)

Stage wins by riders:
3 Boaz Trahktenbrot (Alive And Dead)
3 Klemen Bosilj (Falkenbier)
2 Franz Schwackhöfer (Alive And Dead)
1 Thabani Mbule (Falkenbier)

Stage wins by teams:
5 Alive And Dead
4 Falkenbier
Boaz Trakhtenbrot:
  • Winner Giro 2022
  • 10 GC wins
  • 16.609 Eternal Points
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Re: Afternoon Dec Tour 2021, Atlantic Islands Tour

Post by Falkenbier » Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:17 pm

At least a new rider won today, Thabani! But Falkenbier again? Bääääh, wished that Faye or Hoffmann would do it, but... Thabani much stronger, a bit surprised how strong he was in the end.

And in the back, Bosilj/Gabel arrived with the same group than Skoglund/Schwacki...
Very soft riding all day long, if we knew that, could have gone for a Bosilj sprint :) But ok, without the group in front, T-Mobile and AAD probably ride harder. Like this, almost didn't matter if Bosilj there or not. Peloton sprint then strange, Bosilj in the wind, everyone behind. Some Mojas on the left side. Karatzoglu going fast then, with Detreköi and Schwacki in the back. Bosilj doing weird things, loses energy out in the wind there... and then made a strange decision again at 150m, while Gabel shows his strength and wins the peloton sprint. Skoglund blocked between the evil AADs, so he was beaten by Schwackhöfer. Could be decisive in the end for green.

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