Yep, Walker! Taking it easy, not riding too much turned out to be the right tactic!
Interesting edition, different from the last few ones, pure sprinters are back in the game at MSR, good.
For the Donkeys.... from the start it seemed that I was somewhere between the chairs. Not strong enough to drop Walker and co, decisively, not strong enough to hope to be able to get a lift with him from guys like Kehrer, Miller etc. So Löffel, but can't change my whole tactic to Löffel. And didn't have the team for that anyway. Ok, instead of Lanz fit, Faye. Instead of Trewlove sort of half fittish, Espariat? But even then, a collaboration with T-Mobile seemed problematic, neither of us had the necessary classic to cover the Poggio. Plus well, Celestino lately has often been left behind at the first opportunity by Tivaliainen and Ockers, so even if I had been in front with my 2 classics, and rode, the risk of "treason" by T-Mobile seemed kind of too big. Otherwise could work, no block but Tivalainan from the top can get a lot back,. But well, simply not enough power in the flat before the Poggio for a T-Mobile-Donkey-AAD attempt. An attempt that wasn't even tried.
Anyway, the race, 3 man escape, down to 2 soon, Bahrain giving up, Falkenbier and FL insisting. 34'29" then Pokemon and Gipfel decided to make the race go on. Donkey would have waited another km, then ridden until it's under 34'30" again, then see if people like Fau and Liquigas, that if they ride for their guys have excellent chances, plan to do something. Or anybody else. But ok, it was Poke first, Gipfel right after who showed common sense. Then nothing happening, some short tempo by Donkeys, then some by Fau, Pokemon riding the most by far. Bärenattack later, after Capo Berta Seven Down took over. So nothign much happening really.
So at the Cipressa,... Beauvue siebs, but not extremely strong, at least 3 hill sprinters there, a probably Boulanger was there too, so 4. That meant that the classics were almost out of it. T-Mobile too, unless some of the guys with the strong classics helped.
Then came Messerli with his Armada, 2" behind Walker. With Lim with him or another second or so back... Draupnisson there, so was clear we were all going to be together after the 5. And even if not, at this point waiting for Walker seemed the most sensible thing anyway, with Kehrer, Miller, the LiqLiq guy all in the Messerli group after the 5 for sure (they probably were a bit ahead before, but no sensible help for them, weird)... even if Draupnisson wasn't their, didn't ride, waiting for Walker would have made sense.
Further back the rest of the flat sprinters, strangely somehow even Lopez, the 50-54 managed to be there. Did they ride with weak guys? When I checked Pavoni for Bear seemed pretty close to Messerli and co, how did Lopez manage to stay there? Boh, doesn't matter.
Matters, so now the Donkey went and checked.
Boulanger 4" behind the first group, not helped or not fighting? Classics in front, which kind of makes sense, they seemed to have better chances than Boulanger somehow.
Hasek 7" back, nobody from his team with him. 2 classics in front.
Miller at 8" With 2 59-89 guys. Leaving the 67-85 in front. 71 and 77 mountain further back
Messerli at 12"
Walker with Lim at 14"
Borja, Hoogervorst at 15" 67-81 for Borja there, but no 79-74 or Beauvue. Price 82 with Pavoni 77-61 there too.
Lopez and Wheeler at 18" FL full team almost, Lopez Toto with shit.
So all close
Decisive here, as usual, probably LiqLiq. By doing nothing once again he once again fucked up his best chance of winning. Îf he just let's his 77-78 wait for his sprinter, Hasek, rides with him, gets close to T-Mobile, has him wait, collaborates, blocks the Poggio... then it's hard for any of the groups in the back to come back. Dickson IMO should have tried too, 67/85 on a +5 still is good, let him drop back. Or eh, why was the 71 so far back? But ok, if LiqLiq rides for Hasek Miller doesn't come back there, has to hope for the next group.
In the back maybe, probably, Rukawa or Beauvue should have waited for Borja. Then the chances to come back are pretty decent I guess.
Next km, Draupnisson wins 3" to Ockers in front. 2 big pelotons, the one with Celestino-Karatzoglou-Löffel-Nook, followed by the one with Walker and LIm, who picked up anything in between. As I said, if LiqLiq or even Dickson, ride in a way I'd regard as sensible the race can change. Sotomayor if fit should be similar to Draupnisson, so 4-5" behind T-Mobile at this point. And with the mass of riders he could have there, convincing T Mobile to wait those seconds, then all in, use Tivalainen too if the Poggio is blocked.. .and the group has chances.
At 17" is the Borja group, pulled by Pavoni. Ok, against Draupnisson on a 5 Rukawa doesn't come back, stays a bit closer, but probably not close enough to come back.
At 20" the flat sprinters pulled by Nishida, strong performance there, as fast as Pavoni!
Then very strong riding by CC and Seven Down, Dickson too, just a bit weaker riders. Once it was clear that T-Mobile in front would get no help by classics (and really there was nobody that could help, Gipfel with 3, but if he helps he loses a card...) the Donkey joined too.
Third peloton, then second came within 3", but 4" before the Poggio, and with nobody falling back, again Rukawa might have been worth a try, but no guarantee it works, it was over.
Then the sprint, Donkey not doing a train was clear, do that 2 man train often enough, thought would be expected here, so... Löffel on Celestino, Messerli on... Kehrer. No, the Mosca guy. Kehrer, ok no, Halvorsen, Moscaguy. Went there, too far back, that was it. Then at 250 or 200 meters gambled, thought maybe Miller in front of Nook would go very early, hoping that Nook would not wait till 50 to go himself, but leave him a chance, something that a cryptic message by POkemon seemed to hint at, so went ot that train, Beauvue changed too, Miller didn't go, Messerli does what they do when they don't get the wheel, use energy for nothing... and then back to Halvorsen.. .trying to save a place in the top 10 at this point. 7th in the end, but somehow 3rd to 7th was all pretty close, another 25 meters and might be third... which doesn't matter, the win was almost impossible after the attempted and failed lane change.
Winner Walker, no scruples for him, he went on Lim's wheel. No mercy at all, CC was huge in bringing back the group, on keeping it together with Cubas and Draupnisson (or only Draupnisson, Cubas helper?) But that's the race, it's MSR, no time for presents, CC hoped to ride himself to freedom from Walker or other strong sprinters by riding, didn't work. Bitter for him. But well, Karma, 2 years ago escape, winning there AND winning the sprint in the back. + for CC for not doing a trick sprint out of frustration, he probably was tempted, but good he didn't. But well, for an 80 sprinter in this group it was always going to be difficult, it was always likely that somebody would be on his wheel, thus preventing him from going really early. So Walker won pretty clearly from the CC train, good win, no complaints. He wanted, it, took action when needed, a fit underraced Walker delivered. KO to Messerli in their private battle, not even if Messerli wins another 20 stages includind 10 GT stages and Walker nothing Messerli can win that duel. (Ok, in that scenario he would, but well) Miller a strong second with a good sprint, then a whole bunch of guys at almost the same level, Hasek (who wiith his train should have done better, but why do 4 guys instead of 3??) finally third.
Loesr of the sprint Löffel, he was dropped of the train somehow by the Messerli acrobatics, never recovered....
No regrets on this one really, there wasn't much I could do differently. Team was ok, Trewlove weaker than hoped, Lanz better than hoped. Didn't need to buy Trewlove, but didn't expect Lanz to train that much....So ok. Missing a real blocker for the Poggio, but maybe can be dealt with. But never was in danger of actually needing one. Then the sprint, the wheel choice wasn't that bad, the attempted lane change IMO was worth a try, if Miller goes, that train might be faster, Nook goes at 100, Miller Nook still open, maybe super Messerli somehow gets them? Doubtful, but well...Winning from Halvorsens wheel looked doubtful too, without the acrobatics maybe Messerli gets second, but honestly 2nd or 7th then isn't that big of a difference anymore.
Interesting race, like it when MSR is unclear like it was this year. Original plan was GAbel for 2022, but after the comeback of sprinters I might think of something else until then, seems too mainstream then.