Tour de France 14h

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Robyklebt
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Robyklebt » Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:42 am

4 TT difference? Over 10 km that's 12". Multiply by 3,6, that's 43".
The mountain? I never know how that impacts all that, respectively forget each time... but during the TdS I didn't have the impression it made a big impact at all. And since we are almost the same in mountain.... I go with 43" :lol:

Same for Metz.

But will be interesting for sure, bonifications a big impact, and the Meribel stage the most difficult one. Both for defence and planned offence!

Your options btw are interesting... is there the option to win as well for you?
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Liquigas-CND
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Liquigas-CND » Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:26 pm

Somebody says in the main chat 3s/10 points or
1 sec/3.33 points on 0% at same energy and same form which is coreect.
4 TT points=1.2 sec on flat ( for 4 points TT difference)
Antinori and Barrientos will have very similar prestations on last 6 km of the TT if same energy and form.
But it depends on energy management and how they approach the TT.

The TT is not completely flat. Even on the first 30 km there are several other km with different altimetry. Therefore best case scenario for me would be 33-36 seconds for Barrientos during the TT.
However by TT stage you would normally have GC in your pocket.

I am not complaining but only trying bring arguments against your idea that Barrientos is favourite.

You easily win next stage and gain minimum 7-8 seconds with bonis.
Then 2nd next stage I dont see how you cannot take 20-30.
For sure the other "2" will only wait and attack after Barrientos rides 15-20 km.

Therefore the truth is that I am in a lose lose situation.
Last edited by Liquigas-CND on Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
-GC: Giro'15,'16,18,19;TDF'16,'18,'20;Vuelta'16,'17,'18;Tirreno'16,Catalunya'16,'18,Suisse'16,Romandie'16, Vasco'19,Andes'16
-Stages won in GTs:57
-Classics:17

Robyklebt
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Robyklebt » Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:30 pm

You are funny, never cease to amuse me!

I really should be ahead by now of course... grrr.
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gaurain rx
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by gaurain rx » Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:19 pm

Stage 16

Early group trying to go, Liquigas and Donkey filtering the escapers. Group of 6 going through with 2 phoenix, 2 feiting, 1 Gipfel and Berliner Bâren. Quite homogeneous group actually except for the Berliner Bären rider. Nobody wanted to chase in the back, they were some siebs in the different climbs actually but almost everything went back together quite smoothly. Group took a maximum advantage of 22' before Cote de Revel... There, Big DOnkey did a sieb and went on riding with Bogarin. 10 km or so before the last cat1 of the day, he attacked with Totakhyl and Faye followed by 3 Berliners, 2 gipfel, 1 Bike Thales. Liquigas was off and the group took an advantage of 1'30 before the climb. On The first hard km, Emmanuel Thirifays attacked and his teammates in front waited for him to pull him in the flat section before the final slopes. The peloton reacted quite "kindly" (I even think there was 1km without tempo) so that Thirifays had a gap of a bit more than 3' at the top of the climb. In peloton, Fabio ANtinori tried a move with his teammate Belhassen but he was caught 2-3 kms before the finish of the climb.

In the front group, Brandt from Gipfel decided to attack right before the top of the climb a not really alert phoenix rider (who was maybe more focussed collecting moutain points. He could keep a little advantage till the finish line, even if the chaser was coming every km closer to him. Brandt won the stage in front of Bachan and Landtman.

Thirfays finished 4th, keeping an advantage of 2'37 against all the gc countenders... He is back in the yellow jersey with 1' lead in front of the other climbers. Barrientos was able to collect a 2" advantage on the last climb against his opponents.

So well, quite happy to get back in yellow. Attacking like I did today was the plan since yesterday, I knew that was the best (and only) stage during 3rd week to use the advantage my team has (flat power) and that trying was not risky at all (as I have nothing to loose. Ok, had to forget about the stagewin but didn't really mind about that today, was all for the leader. I would have actually been happy to get back 30 seconds, maybe 1' so almost 2'40 is way more than I expected... But happened cause what I expected occur : no Donkey/Liquigas collaboration. So, we'll try to keep the jersey even if my team and my leader are quite vulnerable. Reaching podium still the goal, if more, I'll take it too... But it doesn't really depends only on me, unlike last year.

Liquigas-CND
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Liquigas-CND » Tue Jul 14, 2020 10:47 pm

gaurain rx wrote:
Tue Jul 14, 2020 9:19 pm
Stage 16
But happened cause what I expected occur : no Donkey/Liquigas collaboration. So, we'll try to keep the jersey even if my team and my leader are quite vulnerable. Reaching podium still the goal, if more, I'll take it too... But it doesn't really depends only on me, unlike last year.
Actually Liquigas chased, did his best considering the low reg of Cattaneo and Castaldelli and start underreg for 5 riders today.
The one who did not collaborate was Big Donkey.
Waiting him to attack tomorrow early again with Antinori . Barrientos ready to lead the chase and protect his place ahead of Antinori in GC. :)

Expected Bike tales to take advantage of the fight between Barrientos and Antinori but it happened to be you.
Congrats for GC Feiting!
-GC: Giro'15,'16,18,19;TDF'16,'18,'20;Vuelta'16,'17,'18;Tirreno'16,Catalunya'16,'18,Suisse'16,Romandie'16, Vasco'19,Andes'16
-Stages won in GTs:57
-Classics:17

Robyklebt
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Robyklebt » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:23 am

Great move by Thirifays.
Didn't expect it there at all, with good stage chances and not guarantee that it works.
Was kind of thinking about Thirifays possibly going one mountain earlier, drop Claeys, then use Bouckhaert after the last climb, but Claeys probably not fit enough for that. And then most likely Donks-Liqs find a way to ride together in the part between the 2 hills. But didn''t expect it at the last mountain anymore, the chances for the stage seemed to good. Gutsy and very nice win. Excellent time management with the waiting too, fit perfectly I think.

For the Donkey there really was nothing to win yesterday. Go with somebody in the early group, for sure LiqLiq doesn't allow that. Most likely outcome was we reach the finish together and Barrientos wins the sprint, so if it's for the stage I lose 4"... so group through was clear.

After that an attack in between, Faye and Totakhyl. Totakhyl? Yep, so that was really no danger. Neither was the attack with Belhassen-Antinori later. Of course, if he doesn't ride I go, but most likely I'm caught, which I was. But thought I gain a bit more than I did with the attack, but went green blue, so was worried at the last 5 that Cattaneo-Barrientos go, I can't follow and I'm chasing with Belhassen forever, but didn't happen. That attack mostly was to have Cattaneo work, hoped to have him under reg for today, don't think that worked. LiqLiq waited for Volpe and that was it, he did most of the work. Good choice of course. Additional benefit of the attack, I had an extra excuse not to ride behind Thirifays, Antinori weakened :D Ok, don't really think it was such a good excuse now, but thought so when I did it.

Great attack by Thirifays, now we have one more candidate. But yes, 30" or whatever Barrientos needs is easily lost, the 1+' to Metz-Antinori is not safe either, but who knows what happens today? It's a 5 man fight now!
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Robyklebt » Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:56 pm

Antinori dominates! Yellow! Stage. GC win coming! Barrientos destroyed! :!: :!: :!: :!: But Antinori gifts the TdF to Barrientos!

Or not really, weird stage... Nothing much happening, didn't want a huge escape today, even a small one got caught. That one for me could have gotten 5' too, but they went green, so caught at the hill at around 30 km

Madeleine as expected nothing much happened, nobody ahead that could be a sensible helper for a leader, some siebs and countersiebs, but was always pretty clear that everything until Totakhyl comes together.

Then my great plan: Attack in downhill. See if Barrientos is following. With Volpe-Casartelli at 1' not following would IMO have made sense actually, thought it more likely that he wasn't following, and I get to the final climb with 30" or so. But ok, then he has the problem with Metz-Roche again, carry them up.. but with 8 8 8 etc at the start he would have had them fighting anyway, then attack before the 7 or at the end of the 7.... he still has 40" on them, they have little reg..

But he followed, I thought Thirifays more likely. So... I didn't know what to do. Get back with Totakhyl, then wait for Volpe and do the final climb from the group? That green attack didn't cost much. Or ride? Put riders in and out and out and in, in the end decided that wanted to ride with Belhassen, at least green. Think managed to have that in at the end... Liquigas collaborates, we kill our star classics before tomorrow not ideal, so was wondering if just waiting wouldn't make more sense, but went together anyway.

Final climb, Cattaneo in tempo, I was already losing my nerves, attack at that 9 that is coming? Pretty sure Barrientos can follow, after today my form shouldn't be a big secret... But Barrientos manages to drop back.. 45" back? Hä? Reloaded x times to see what was going on.... he somehow (don'^t ask me how, seems difficult to do) managed to make him drop.

So ride.. stupid, let him come back, so I just went green. Then after 2 km thought but well, if he makes such a big mistake, I want at least the stage, so I'll ride after 4 km, he was at 8" then I rode.

16" at the end, doubled my advantage... but with Barrientos having ridden 4 km red before vs 4 green by me... Still pretty sure he has better form than the Donkey.

So gifted the GC to Barrientos? No. If we both ride when he has 45" I'm pretty sure he wins back 10" or more, probably more with the 5 in there. GC was still his. Ok, I would have had better chances to win back the time necessary tomorrow, but with Belhassen dead (and Cattaneo) that won't be easy anyway...

So in the end I profited from his mistake to get another stage, get yellow for hopefully 3 days. Stupid way to win a stage, but well, if he makes the mistake some punishment seems fine, didn't need the whole 45" that seemed overprofiting, but a bit, yes, 16" in the end. Not really a nice win, but I took it anyway. What I should have done of course is ride the first km red to see how much I lose, then wait until he's at around 10". Then we wouldn't have to discuss much about how close this was going to be if I just rode.

GC now seems rather clear

Antinori
Barrientos 18"
With 43" (according to me) or 33-36" (according to LiqLiq) for LiqLiq on Saturday, seems very likely he'll win this. Tomorrow of course I will try something, somehow, but seems rather easy for Barrientos. Which is ok, I didn't ride well this Tour often, stupid 9" early by waiting (got that back today, ha!) and that mountain arrival where I lost 15" (more I think, or boni) wasn't ridden well either.. LiqLiq more deserving, and again, even if I had ridden today, I think he would have still been ahead in GC at the end.

Everybody else at this point is out. Another big sleep by Liquigas-Donkey tomorrow somebody gains back 5'? LiqLiq's team shouldn't be THAT dead, Cattaneo yes, but others rather ok. So realistically speaking between Thirifays-Metz-Roche it's for 3rd now, and looks damn good for Thirifays.
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Liquigas-CND
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Liquigas-CND » Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:32 pm

Nice stage today, made a big mistake again, instead of dropping back one of the classics dropped Barrientos.
This changed the entire situation... if I dont make this mistake and let him attack then chase, for sure he is in trouble tomorrow and I dont lose time.
Like this will be very easy.

Antinori in yellow
Barrientos at 18 seconds
Thirifays at 3'55" (difficult to understand why he did not want to follow on downhill...)

Tomorrow will be easy for Antinori to get his 15 seconds needed.
But GC deserved for Big Donkey, I've made 2-3 big mistakes during this tour not being able either to be online in decisive moments like yesterday or wrong click as today.
-GC: Giro'15,'16,18,19;TDF'16,'18,'20;Vuelta'16,'17,'18;Tirreno'16,Catalunya'16,'18,Suisse'16,Romandie'16, Vasco'19,Andes'16
-Stages won in GTs:57
-Classics:17

Gipfelstuermer
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Gipfelstuermer » Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:04 pm

Stage 16 - Moutain Finish in Villar de Lans
Good race report by gaurain/feiting above. Big Donkey and Liqui let a big escape go. Our 22-year-old guy Brandt wins with a nice 20km solo out of that escape! :) In the back, really nice attack from Thirifays, who was helped by his domestique Bouckhaert to ride into yellow on that today!

Stage 17 - Col de la Madelaine and Mountain finish at Col de la Loze
Race report by Liqui above. Barrientos and Antinori attack the yellow in the downhill. Thirifays loses a lot of time. Then on Col de la Loze the unthinkable happens. Barrientos has a mechanical problem (misclick by Liqui!!!) and drops back 45''. Big Donkey don't know what to do.... be fair and wait? win like that? He waits something like 25'' and then continues... sort of a middleground. Weird situation anyway that produces the win and maybe the decisive seconds for Antinori.

Stage 18 - Roselend, Saisies, Aravis & Plateau de Glieres on the way to La-Roche-sur-Foron
Another beautiful stage. km1 escape goes, Big Donkey brings Belhassen into that. Liqui arrives late and starts chasing... decisive attack from Antinori then only a green attack on Col des Aravis (before Plateau de Glieres!). Barrientos not following but trying to catch him over the Glieres.... he gets closer and closer but then Thirifays attacks with Metz following out of the Barrientos group to chase Antinori. Barrientos again not following. Antinori, Thirifays and Metz find cooperation in front (Antinori for GC, the other two for the stage). Beautiful stage win for Thirifays. Antinori wins 21'' vs. Barrientos.

Image maillot jaune situation
0'00'' Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
+0'39'' Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
+3'49'' Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)

Looks good for Antinori, but final decision in the ITT to La Planche des Belles Filles.

Image maillot vert situation
338 - Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer)
258 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
232 - Nicolas Roche (Ugao TE)

80 points ahead, 99.9% sure maillot vert for JJ. What a dream for the 38-year-old. Let's hope he makes it to Paris!

Imagemaillot a pois rouge situation
116 - Kamaladevi Bachchan (Team-Phoenix)
91 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
60 - Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)

GW Bachchan!

Aaaaand more Statistics!

Days in maillot jaune by riders:
13 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
3 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)

Days in maillot jaune by teams:
13 - Liquigas-CND
3 - Feiting Siebing
2 - Big Donkey

Stage wins by riders:
3 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
2 - Sam Bennett (Ugao TE)
2 - Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer)
2 - Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)
2 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
1 - Bastien Boulanger (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
1 - Jeroen DeRoy (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Alberto Fernandez (Novostil)
1 - Yegor Kiriyenko (Team-Phoenix)
1 - Bartholomäus Brandt (Gipfelstuermer)

Stage wins by teams:
4 - Gipfelstuermer
4 - Big Donkey
3 - Feiting Siebing
2 - Ugao TE
2 - Bike Tales
1 - Liquigas-CND
1 - Novostil
1 - Team-Phoenix
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Robyklebt
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Robyklebt » Fri Jul 17, 2020 2:54 pm

Weirdness continues :lol:

My plan was clear: Attack on the first km of the last hill, head down, ride. The problem with that... even If I was pretty sure I would have more energy than Barrientos (who was fitter than thought it seemed) and get away a) I get what, let's say 5". But then with the 110 gone from the attack (less if we are under 1000, which we probably would have been) I end up with the same or even slightly less energy than Barrientos, he keeps the distance to these 5"... or let's think positive and it goes to 10"... then what? a) He catches me. b) Thornquist catches all. On a) I would have been correct. On b) not at all it seems....

So plan B was: Bring somebody ahead. To use early or very unlikely after the big climb. Of course my team as dead as LiqLiq's, so seemed unlikely to work, try anyway. Added benefit, if the Donkey group on Bachchan wasn't allowed to go, I could inherit the mountain jersey with Antinori. Nice too.

So Belhassen on Bachchan. Thought LiqLiq probably had many of his riders on mine, seemed clear I would try that. So hoped Belhassen would be free, who uses a 74-80 for this after all. And of course he had 700 energy only. And LiqLiq offline. First big mistake. He keeps making those too. Not that the Donkey is riding brilliantly, but LiqLiq is doing very weird stuff too. He said he thought Trujillo, the half dead man, in tempo from km 1... clearly he wasn't. Second guy in tempo then worked, after 15 or so km and over 7' advantage. Trujillo with offsettings? Just put him in tempo...
So LIquigas then on, chases. Thought for a moment of attacking on the Saisies, but fortunately didn't. With half dead Belhassen that would have been catastrophic.
So then on the Aravis, green attack, get a minute or slightly more on top, then Belhassen full power. 5xx at this point, so lost lots of time, under 20 before the 5 at the bottom of Glieres Antinori rode, Barrientos not, which was good for me, back up to 28". And then Barrientos won back second by second. But don't think I went too early really, if I go late I start with less advantage normally (unless Barrientos goes green, which would be stupid IMO) and the flat pavé on top cost me a lot again. Green attack early, Aravis up green, then losing energy being in a small group, I think probably cost me 40 or 50 more than if I attack red in the Glieres. Only mistake was being to optimistic, thought Belhassen would do a better job, he was horrible. But highly unfit, so that's ok. He won't be fired. I hoped to have at least 30" there (had 28" including the 5 but that's because Antinori rode one km earlier than Barrientos)

Metz and surprisingly Thirifays keep up, Roche dropped by Barrientos. Group coming closer, sure I'll be caught. Thirifays and Metz go in tempo, I didn't completely get why at that point... Let me gain back a few seconds in the steep downhill vs Barrientos, let us 2 work it out. If Barrientos doesn't catch me before the small hill start, help him a bit there, then attack and go for stage, seemed the logic thing to do. But they went in. So I went out, 4" advantage at that point, with Thirifays 79 downhill, why ride. Then I see Thirifays out again, so I thought I go another km. IF you want to catch me that early, at least work. VERY lucky, Thirifays attacked, I stayed one second ahead. And second big big mistake by LiqLiq, he wasn't following Thirifays. Until yesterday I was saying he was a more deserving winner than me, now I'd say we're equally sucky. So then obviously I ride full power with them, they help, scared of Thornquist. In retrospect unnecessary, he never came close, but I'm not the only one miscalculating. Barrientos left alone in the back, loses time, won back a bit when Antinori was left alone, lost a bit again when it went down... Sprint, Antinori thought it was pointless, so no sprint, should have, Metz was unfit, might have gotten 2 extra seconds there.

So now: 39" for Antinori. 36 km TT, flat, same form same energy 43". Last 6 km are up...and there's some little orang and green before, so everybody tells me I should win. Ok then... I still don't know. Whatever it is, 43" or 33-36" as LiqLiq kept saying, that's all in the "chance range" anyway, I'd say pretty open. I honestly don't remember the effect mountain has if 2 guys are roughly the same in mountain, does the TT gain go down? Probably... but I was disappointed during the TdS at how strong this Gsiberger was in the climb.... So don't really know at all. Probably will come down to tactics, and since Aix filled my head with some TT tactics bullshit I lose those TTs. Gamov brilliantly defended Rosa before, Fahrny then lost the Tour of Yemen because the Donkey overdid Aix-tactics... bah.
The first 30 km, I'll stick with my 36" though. The orange shouldn't hurt Barrientos at all, the green a bit more, so maybe 34". Then... maybe I'll learn the effect of mountain this time.

Anyway, it's been fun riding with only 1 climber, but obvious that I'm not used to that really. Barrientos riding defensively rode better in many instances, but not perfect either, but did 3 huge mistakes in 2 days now. Another obvious thing was that neither of us really really wanted this TdF. Lots of try and see going on, which made for a more interesting race than if we both are calculating and doing only the "best" moves. Ok, without his 3 big mistakes IMO Barrientos would be the easy winner now. My fault for putting top form for the TdS for both climbers, who cares about the Tour... Put it for the Tour and I don't start with basically 30" to catch up. (Even if 9" had nothing to do with form but a big mistake by me) But then it becomes another race too, I'm close, probably yellow sooner, even without the Barrientos mistakes possibly get these 40"... but just by doing late attacks, so in the end the 30" back were ok too, made me have to try earlier.
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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Robyklebt » Sat Jul 18, 2020 3:09 pm

Barrientos! 7" in the end.

Seemingly he just went through 100% from start to finish, didn't suffer much at all. Antinori started slower, only 90% had lost all after 13 km, so went to 95 and then 1 km later to 100% too, but finally should simply have started faster. Maybe 95, or at least change to 95% after 2 or 3 km when it was clear how Barrientos was riding. Match the pace basically. No guarantee that that's enough either, after all he has an form advantage too I think. Probably stage 15 for Barrientos? Stage 13 for me, wanted the advantage in the Pyrenees, be ahead and defend in the Alps. Anyway, so IMO at least 0,5 more advantage, so in the mostly flat 30 first km that would be 42" I was back 11" I think, so 50" in the stage, by matching the tempo I would be closer, but then not sure I gain time back in the climb, most likely not, I only have 0,5 advantage in mountain too after all. Still, suspect I would be closer overall, if I went at least 95% immediately when I saw how he went. And then to 100% soon after. Not a good TT by the Donkey then, but well, we both made enough mistakes this Tour, so either winning is ok, nobody won or lost it today, we gave each other lots of chances over these 3 weeks!

Stage Barrientos, as expected, here I don't think Faye would have had a chance even if he went full power from the start, climb just too long,and Baaba 1 year too young. Still, he beat Thirifays, so that's good :lol:

GW to Barrientos, the unbeatable LiqLiq strikes again! As I predicted, see, I still win, by being right!

Second in 4 classification is really one too many though, would have liked to win either the GPM or the team classification, but concentrated on the GC finally, so that's how it ends.
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
Basics reform: Give blue a chance!
Don't punish bugusers. We all have to use bugs, since most of them are declared as "features"!

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Re: Tour de France 14h

Post by Gipfelstuermer » Sun Jul 19, 2020 3:17 pm

Final Statistics!

Beautiful results for Barrientos, Bachchan, JJ and Thirifays!

Image maillot jaune result
0'00'' Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
+0'07'' Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
+3'33'' Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)

Image maillot vert result
358 - Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer)
282 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
232 - Nicolas Roche (Ugao TE)

Imagemaillot a pois rouge result
117 - Kamaladevi Bachchan (Team-Phoenix)
91 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
60 - Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)

Aaaaand more Statistics!

Days in maillot jaune by riders:
14 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
3 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
2 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)

Days in maillot jaune by teams:
14 - Liquigas-CND
3 - Feiting Siebing
3 - Big Donkey

Stage wins by riders:
3 - Fabio Antinori (Big Donkey)
2 - Sam Bennett (Ugao TE)
2 - Jacob Jefferson (Gipfelstuermer)
2 - Ethan Metz (Bike Tales)
2 - Emmanuel Thirifays (Feiting Siebing)
2 - Beltran Barrientos (Liquigas-CND)
1 - Ticio Bogarin (Big Donkey)
1 - Bastien Boulanger (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Jeroen DeRoy (Feiting Siebing)
1 - Alberto Fernandez (Novostil)
1 - Yegor Kiriyenko (Team-Phoenix)
1 - Bartholomäus Brandt (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Gerard Lafargue (Big Donkey)
1 - Jonathan Bouckhart (Feiting Siebing)

Stage wins by teams:
5 - Big Donkey
4 - Gipfelstuermer
4 - Feiting Siebing
2 - Ugao TE
2 - Bike Tales
2 - Liquigas-CND
1 - Novostil
1 - Team-Phoenix
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