Philippines Tour 15h

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Robyklebt
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Philippines Tour 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:34 pm

Big Donkey bored, so why not write something about the Philippines Tour? About with what riders the Donkey will start for example.

The pre-selection:

F. Antinori: Leader
T. Armas: Classic leader, being the only classic that means 97% pure helper though.
H. Belhassen: Future classic, 60-80 (62-78)now, helper, 57 sprint makes him a placement rider too in some stages
T. Bogarin: Star sprinter. Or number 2. Or number 3
M. Haqqi: The flat star
F. Krankl: 51 reg, helper
H. Kunonga: Star sprinter. Or number 2. Or number 3. No mountain, flat
J. Larios: Preparing the Vuelta. Last helper, with an eye on white.
H. Matsukaze: Star sprinter. Or... see Bogarin.
H. Matsuzaka: 60-80, 47 reg, helper
A. Nägele: 59-82, needs to train, the Philippines maybe ideal?
S. Wiedmer: 65-82, reg, in absence of a second classic, he'll have a protected role, occasionally at least.

12 riders, 3 to remain home... who?
First question is 1 or 2 climbers, pretty sure will be 2. Armas and Wiedmer are sure, so that makes 3 sure starters and one very very likely one. 5 places for 8 riders. Add Haqqi, I like having one strong flat rider there you never know when you need to do a fast chase, so we have 4 places for 7 riders.
Krankl almost sure not to get to ride, reg is nice, but Nàgele/Matsuzaka with 45/47 are not too far behind, and much better skillwise. He will go to 77 flat soon, but that's really too little to be there.
Then at least one of the sprinters out normally. Even if I'm quite tempted to bring all 3. Sounds like a stupid idea, but.. I'm still tempted. With 2 the question is who to drop. Kunonga or Bogarin? Matsukaze would make most sense, no flat, but he's the oldest, he has certain rights. Plus as loader in the hills/mountains. Like Bogarin... Only 1 of the sprinters, then Matsukaze, then don't need more helpers, just the best guy is ok.
Matsuzaka/Nägele/Belhassen, Matsuzaka is basically safe, could add him to the riders on top. Nägele the next one to go in, reg and flat, least chances Belhassen. So that means almost none actually.

We'll see on Monday... not sure there will be much to write here then, but if others join, why not. If not just the spectators can write their words of encouragement to their idols (the Donkeys) here.
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Tukhtahuaev
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Re: Philippines Tour 15h

Post by Tukhtahuaev » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:17 pm

Tukhtahuaev is going to start rather cheap and without ambitions

Most likely lineup:

1. Joaquim Teles
2. Alexis Logothetis
3. Bronislaw Laskowski
4. Magnus Halvorsen
5. Jasper Buitink
6. Ranbir Tamhane
7. Lukas Eggenberger
8. Amar Moawad
9. Ingvar Arnarson

Robyklebt
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Re: Philippines Tour 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:33 pm

The donkey team is fix. But you'll see it in 2 hours, so no need to write it down.
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
Basics reform: Give blue a chance!
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Robyklebt
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Re: Philippines Tour 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:01 pm

Weird group.

1 sprinter, 93, next best 80 (same team) then 76 followed by the awesome Donkeytrain 75-75-74
1 climber 87, followed by 2 83 and one 82. All from 2 teams, Donkey and Cost. Next best is 78...

So for the stages, somehow a lot seems predictable. Something like have the stages seem predestined to be won by Taupin and Antinori... even if Taupin already missed one. A 5% a few km from the end was too hard for Taupin, so Matsukaze won the stage.
Stage 1 was Jäger and Tukh escaping, Monks riding alone, later Donkey and Cost helping, too much really, sprint was easy for Taupin, with a livid Donkey since Monks felt the need to do a trick sprint (tempo out with the first guy in his train) even with 99,8% of chances... grrr. So decided not to help actively for sprint anymore.
Stage 2: Less attacks, none at all? Forgot. Monks rides, last 5 the Donkey tries to sieb (unfit Armas, had only seen it after quite a while, that a sieb might work) But Cost siebed, strong guy, Sprint, Matsukaze
Stage 3: Donkey rides, yellow, so well.. Tukh escape, no chance, Jäger and Cost join too, really too easy then. Donkey in yellow used Wiedmer, normally wouldn't have, but yellow. Bogarin-Kunonga-Haqqi really planned, but riskying to put one of them under reg... no no, let's try Wiedmer. Keeping Wiedmer IMO good chances to come back to Jäger and Pichler, without came to 13 or 12" not closer. Sprint, easy win for Pichler, yellow and green, except he managed not to win, the second Cost climber instead.


GC: Simba Tawanda 83 with 72 TT vs FAbio Antinor 87-49. Tawanda should have a bit over 3' advantage after the TT. , but less reg, only 40, so maybe less? Antinori certainly will try on the stages that fit. Classics is a draw, 75-80 vs 75-81 for Cost. He then has a 70 in addition, but that shoudn't be decisive.
White: Schwyzer vs Larios? Probably possible for Larios if I decide that yellow is not possible, but doubt I will.
Green: Pfumbidzai I would have said before the start, or Taupin. Taupin missing one now difficult, Pfumbidzai there, but Matsukaze in green right now. And Pichler not far behind, should be between these 3. But Pfumbidzai looks pretty good, should score points in hilly races too, not always win as yesterday, but be there.

Ok, more later or another day.
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
Basics reform: Give blue a chance!
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Robyklebt
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Re: Philippines Tour 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:11 am

2nd stage for Taupin which really was predictable if there is a sprint.
But sprinting time now is over, next and last stage marked red on Taupin's calendar is the 10th...

For green, now Matsukaze with 80 points, Pichler 69, Taupin 60. Pichler with the best chances to score points at the end of stages until stage 10, but I don't think he really has good ones either. After the last hill only 6 "blue km" on Saturday, 9 on Tuesday, and the last stage looks kind of hard too, 9 km again. So... from the sprinters it looks like Matsukaze will win green.

BUT, Tawanda 53, Pfumbidzai 50 and Gsiberger 45 look set to come back fast, IMO will be between those 3 for the green at the end. Tawanda of course has bigger goals, Pfumbidzai too, helping and maybe white, but they will score points pretty automatically in mountain stages and middle mountain ones. Even by simply getting 3 third places in mountain stages they get 30 points... so really it should be one of the 2 in green at the end. Gsiberger.... if he was ahead of the 2 now, chances, but already behind, hard... he might beat them in the middle mountain stages, but will lose in the mountain stages.

Today, first stage that Antinori would like to win, so the Donkey will control without killing himself. With 2 climbers and 3 sprinters he doesn't really have such a great controlling team anyway. But can use Kunonga and Bogarin as helper now, so should be ok.
Tomorrow on the other hand looks like the first stage where escapers really have a chance, the Donkey for example sees no reason to ride tomorrow, sort of GC control in case he is in yellow tonight (which doesn't seem unlikely), but no interest for stage at all. On the contrary, escapers taking away points from the Matsukaze haters sounds cool.
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
Basics reform: Give blue a chance!
Don't punish bugusers. We all have to use bugs, since most of them are declared as "features"!

Robyklebt
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Re: Philippines Tour 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:44 pm

The Mindanao-pattern is complete: Monks-Donks-Cost-Monks-Donks-Cost. 6 stages, 2 wins each for 3 teams.
GC now Antinori 1" in front of Tawanda, but we can expect that to change radically after the rest day :(

Today seemed the best chance for an escape so far, but Cost used the rest day well, hard work alone to get the group, good control, good win. The last 2 days were actually a step forward in opening up the race a bit, so far we were very closed, too many teams with the same interest. So escapes really had no chance. Sprint stages Chartreuse does the job with some help by Donks and Cost, Donks help decreasing though. Cost makes sense to keep the GC calm. But the last 2 days we had 1 team riding alone most of the time at least, think somebody else rode yesterday a bit, don't remember why or who.... today Cost basically alone, some safety tempo against farmer tricks, some siebs, that's all that others did.

Luzon promises to be a bit more open. TT, then stage 8+9, stage 8 is Cost again, but no rest day coming, so he might let a group through? Donkey really has little interest in helping on such stages, too hard for Matsukaze, points and seconds for Tawanda (Optimistic Donks still believes in all)... so there could be a good chance for the escape.
Stage 9 the same, with the Donkey the guy who doesn't chase hard enough this time... Ideal for Antinori, but well, the Donkey really doesn't have the team to control. Plus already has 2 stages, a third one seems inescapable later on. So...
One guy with reg, Wiedmer, he's better kept fit ideally... Matsuzaka a bit of reg. Then Armas 50 reg, but can't use a 75-80 early... Haqqi, 3 sprinters, 2 climbers, and a sprint coming the next day! Doesn't sound promising. Cost has the team to control stage 8, he has reg, 62 and 50 for flat guys, 57 for 61-78, so if he wants to control stage 8 he won't be completely fucked in stage 9, so he might control. But if he overdoes it maybe the Donkey tries to take advantage of that the next day? The Donkey really doesn't have the team,, but he might control as well, forget the sprint the next day, just one fit sprinter is enough....who needs all 3? We'll see. Anyway, stages 8-9 seem possible for an escape. 10 sprint, Monks alone can do it really, he has little to do the days before. Cost help again (even if GC from escapers seems no danger anymore) and Donkey for the train and green points (or maybe he is recovering from stage 9), so seems safe. 11, well, if the Donkey doesn't manage to win that one, he better stop playing. 12 in theory why not for an escape, but being as hard as it is.... the Costloton (or Donkloton) will somehow gain lots of time almost automatically on these hard climbs. And with the Donkey offline for the start with offline tempo (we're not doing replays of the Giro-Finestre stage a few years ago, when we had the whole team in autotempo).. unlikely that the escape wins lots of time too... we'll see.

A, yellow, no change, Tawanda vs Antinori.
Green, Tawanda vs.... Matsukaze? Not really, more confindent in Antinori than Matsukaze.... Tawanda is already ahead, eh will score points in all stages basically, Matsukaze in one. So Tawanda vs Pichler? Hills too close to the finish for Pichler. So the only real opponent is Pfumbidzai. But since Tawanda is clearly the leader....
White: Schwyzer, but Pfumbidzai and Larios have chances. Schwyzer will most likely lose a fair amount of time on the long climb on stage 10, while "only" winning 1'30" in the ITT. It will really depend on how Pfumbidzai and Larios are used by their managers. If one of them decides to go for white, he should get it..
Team: Cost
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
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Robyklebt
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Re: Philippines Tour 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:04 pm

2 stages for escapes, 2 stages for Tukh, as explained above, not unexpected.
GC, 2'45" gained for Tawanda to Antinori in the ITT, or something around there. Basically more or less as expected. Could have been less if I had used Antinori better, he ended with 20 or so over reg, he could go 50 under... Not sure how much Tawanda used.

Yesterday first GC attempt, group gone, ok, don't have the team to control much here. Could have controlled that escape of course, but even that would have cost me a lot in fitness... so preferred to keep the early riders fit, forget the stage, have 2 already, one more than expected at this point, so this one not needed. And try GC stuff. Sieb, go, counter sieb by Cost, then good attack with Wiedmer and Armas. Second last climb, try a sieb, well, didn't work. So...? Attacked, mistake, especially since Antinori still was 10+" behind Armas. If I let Armas wait, it's better, but still, the attack no good really. Much better to just keep riding with Larios or even Antinori, wait with Armas and go, then not a big time gain, but at least no time loss. That's how it ended yesterday, 4" before the last climb, caught on the 17, last km attack by Tawanda that Antinori couldn't follow. 2'59" back now, doesn't look good. But thought had to try to gain a more than 10" incl. bonfications , 20-30". More ok of course, but unlikely unless there is a big mistake by Cost. Didn't work we'll try again in 2 days.

Today the awesome Donkey train plans to strike!
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
Basics reform: Give blue a chance!
Don't punish bugusers. We all have to use bugs, since most of them are declared as "features"!

Robyklebt
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Re: Philippines Tour 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:44 pm

1 day to go, and everything seems decided.
Tawanda easy yellow and even easier green
Larios a bit surprising white for me, think Cost was in control well enough to get that too if he really wanted, didn't, so Larios takes it.
Mountain for LInzer, easy too.
Team no idea, I guess Cost? Yep, but only 3'25" before the Donkey, thought it was more? Must have gained time back somewhere...

The 2 GC stages, yesterday no early action, just went for the win, going long, could go short too, didn't really matter much, long a bit riskier and wasn't completely sure not to fuck it up, but thought more fun, worked, 27" gained, plus bonfication. Was going to be around there, if Cost fights early, maybe more, reg problems, was hoping a bit that, make him fight a few times first before he puts it off or is dropped, but that would take forever. And would make Larios suffer.. .Cost had fighting off on the first siebkm, so ok, just go with Antinori, some tempo sharing with Larios who had fighting on, but he kept fighting despite the "tempo together" (seems strange, but I thought he was losing more energy than Antinori) so dropped Larios pretty soon, had him on the Cost train, then some fighting again with Simba... wasn't sure what to do, drop him, have him fit today, or keep fighting get white, see how the race develops today, maybe can keep it.

Today the main strategy was clear from the beginning. Antinori at km 103-104 tempo, siebing, expected Cost to drop immediately. Then since he saw no need to cover the mountain before, slightly changed the plan, attack with Matsukaze and Wiedmer, sieb with Antinori, if he has fighting on, ok, loses some energy, if not, I get an advantage in the downhill, start the hill with a few seconds advantage. AND, he can't help all 3. Gamarra-Pfumbidzai and Tawanda. Because for my great strategy today Armas was important, stay with Gamarra. IF Cost goes for the Gamarra variant. The other one, Probably safer was to simply chase with Pfumbidzai, let Gamarra be carried up behind by some other classics, keep Antinori in front within a minute, max 1'30, get him with TAwanda in the end. I preferred the Gamarra one, which is what Cost did. Excellent. 1) Armas that way has a real chance to win the stage. 2) Larios keeps white. Otherwise would just have been Tawanda for sure. Originally of course I had planned to go with both Larios and Antinori, fighting on vs fighting off...if he has fighting on, then take it out with Larios etc. Then go with first Larios mostly, drop him and go with Antinori... and again, what does he do behind? Pfumbidzai or Gamarra? But well, Larios started with 870, so that was out from the start. With Larios, (even more if he had trained to 84) I would have had a chance for the stage today, but well, unfit... so it's Antinori from far, thought would be 3' on top, was 2'59", pure luck most of the time I'm off by way more. All worked well, Armas in front of Gamarra for once, fighting off for Armas too after the first time he was ahead, so the stage chase seemed well. But then km 116. -18, not sure who Cost put in tempo, Tawanda himself maybe? Excellent move, I hadn't even realized the danger... Anyway, Armas was dropped, he had fighting back on by that time, but 62 wasn't enough to stay. Argh. Some weird contraproductive attempts by Larios to bring him back, siebing, which had no effect whatsoever on Gamarra, who now had fighting on... Ok, dropped poor Bonisseur.. which might have even been a good move somehow, even if not planned, if he had been on at that time. Maybe together there's a chance? He does the mountain together with Armas, downhill alone, flat Armas... but was off, Armas out, out of tempo soon after too.
In front then more or less as expected, Antinori stayed ahead longer than I thought, Larios wasn't siebed, lost 130 energy in 4 km, amazing fighting, really too easy to stay with fighting at times I think. He should be dropped at the 10, the last km of the climb. So possibly second place for Larios in the stage, for the win IMO no chance, wasn't even going to sprint, even with the tempo Tawanda was doing, he still would have more energy before the last km (I think) and the much better sprint. But ok, Tawanda attacked, not following with Larios, he now was focused on white, really not much danger, Schwyzer at 2', but don't want him to start with 600 energy, and then be robbed of his nice white jersey tomorrow by some Heuler-Schwyzer combi.

Too bad we didn't have another pretendent for yellow. Like this unless Cost makes a big mistake (actually he needed 2 big ones probably) it was just going to be him, not much Antinori or Larios can do. Earlier attack yesterday, well, the problem is that Gamarra-Armas really are similar, Gamarra thanks to the downhill more useful, so if it was going to be early had to be with Matsuzaka-Wiedmer, but there Cost had 70 -61 mountian, vs my 65-63. The other teams even less of a chance in GC. Some other climbers, or at least some teams that take away bonifications on x stages from Tawanda... useful. In the end I only won 13" back to Tawanda... without his bonifications on hilly stages that's 33" already, not enough but a start. And of course my less than brilliant performance to Mount Mataba... ok, think the performance was actually pretty good, except for one costly mistake... Gain some time there, and I'm at 15" closer So around 30"... still 2'15" to gain, so add some bonification thiefs and some climbers.. .then the fight could have been interesting, Antinori or other climbers vs Tawanda. Then on a day like yesterday a time gain of 1' seems possible, today similar. LIke this.. don't really see how I could have beaten Tawanda. Be closer, yes. But on the other hand Tawanda today could have taken another 15, 20" seconds from Antinori too, he had reserves as well, bigger ones than mine even maybe...

Tomorrow, interesting stage. Don't expect much GC/white/mountain action really. But the stage seems open. Gamarra should be under reg. Tawanda too, but only slightly, so maybe he won't win this one. Escape, a late Logothetis attack, Teles? Or even Pichler sprint? Armas with his chance? (Under reg too...) we'll see, many unfit riders in the peloton, high reg helps.
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
Basics reform: Give blue a chance!
Don't punish bugusers. We all have to use bugs, since most of them are declared as "features"!

Robyklebt
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Re: Philippines Tour 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:55 pm

4 stages for the Donkey finally, plus white and 2nd and 3rd place in GC.

Happiest to win a stage with Matsukaze, was not really expected, so nice.
2 stages with Antinori, could be 3, but well, tried a GC thing that backfired instead.
Armas with one, hoped for one, but the day before. Last stage winning ok, but to be honest second place wouldn't have bothered me much either. Or if winning, then with Matsuzaka/Wiedmer and an earlier attack.

GC as I said, not much to do, as there was not much to do for those behind me to get 2nd or 3rd.
White, same/similar, Cost IMO probably could have gotten it, but preferred the no-risk approach and just have a safe yellow. Which I understand, better safe than sorry, plus if you win yellow+green, you don't really need to fight for white too IMO.

Not enough teams, 6, 1 gave up, on every day I think, but every day late, so the 60% was reached. Rosario the offliner und Jäger the winless teams, Jäger at times seemed to sabotage his own stage attempts though...With GC threat attacks, as unthreatening as they were, they still are sort of threats in situations when otherwise his group in front probably had better chances to go through. Or try to send more riders to the front, when everybody in the back seemed ok with the group in front, but not the added riders. Let's hope for a bigger group in Colombia. The Donkey MIGHT start, with lots of offlining in the first half
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
Basics reform: Give blue a chance!
Don't punish bugusers. We all have to use bugs, since most of them are declared as "features"!

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