Giro 2018 Afternoon (the only real Giro)

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Robyklebt
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Re: Giro 2018 Afternoon (the only real Giro)

Post by Robyklebt » Sat May 19, 2018 11:22 am

Actually Zafzaf is the favorite for ciclamino! According to the FL prediction at least.
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Robyklebt
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Re: Giro 2018 Afternoon (the only real Giro)

Post by Robyklebt » Mon May 21, 2018 2:48 pm

Zoncolan and Sappada over, and won.

Zoncolan with ZL in command. Good control, good race, in the Zoncolan as was to be expected Zafzaf drops everybody without attacking. Small group in front, no GC danger at all. Stage, when I checked with the app, thought that ZL was taking some rather big risks, seemed far, but obviously ZL even after years of not playing still manages to calculate better.
Actually thought that the Zoncolan stage was one of the more dangerous ones for me. Short steep hills with flat in between, if somebody invests something, early break, add classics, then climber, or just early break with puller and classic, then the climber? I'll have to work a lot. Thanks to Tobar and Zafzaf still good chances of course, but not automatic. But nobody tried understandable too. Ulle has the climbers, but not the classics. Gipfel the team, but Mahrez as potential problem. Tukh the classics, but Min? Etc.
So easy day(I think, didn't see much) perfectly executed by ZL.

More in the next post, on mobile, sometimes refuses to post from here, so rather make 3 posts than 1
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
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Robyklebt
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Re: Giro 2018 Afternoon (the only real Giro)

Post by Robyklebt » Mon May 21, 2018 3:24 pm

Ok Sappada. Didn't plan to win, didn't really want to, but, if the situation is like it was before the last 3 hills, I have to try to go for the stage too. Can't just 'gift' stages in the final...
Only Mercatone attacked, Gipfel controls for Fonda and ciclamino.. all together 3 mountains from the end... then I need to try.
Gipfel said that I changed my policy, help for stage hunters in controlling., I didn't help him at all. Didn't help true, don't see it as change in policy because here I was one of the stage favorites. Yes a while ago I said I didn't think it really was a stage for Zafzaf. Looking at the stage more closely before the stage, changed my mind. Had only looked at the last hill, flattsish, 2 km flat after the hill... No not for Zafzaf. 1 hill earlier? Still not. 2? Mmh, can work. So I did see myself as a stage favorite, probably no 1. Fonda, Min, Artyom all have chances, but basically in the same scenario. Everything together till the last hill. Mine are different, so if my scenario works, it's either me, or Mahrez. With me as favorite 2 vs 1, stronger climber.

So the policy I help stage hunters control IMO didn't apply, since I was a stage favorite. In those cases it's more like on the FL and Australia stage? Stages where I'm the or one of the favorites. But let go, only try hard at the end. Not completely gift the stage away, sort of risky control, then see if I'm good enough at the end. So far I wasn't. I saw Sappada as a stage like that. Escape goes, I let go, having a fit team without Vienuolis as controller, and just control. Do a GC attack at the end, most likely stage is gone. Already had my 3 stages, in the last week 3 more where I start as clear favorite, really didn't need to get Sappada. So basically just attack and fight for the win in front. But if it's controlled.. I can't just do nothing there. Didn't think the win would be as clear as it was, but thought going were I went chances were good. Better reaction behind, Mahrez on Aeschlimann, maybe different ending. But once we are were we were I can't bring myself to just not even try.

In the last week on the 3 mountain stages the policy "help stage hunters" won't apply either. I'm the favorite, I'll control. And will be difficult to avoid winning Pratonevoso. The Finestre stage then clearly tempts me. Yeah I said 3 stages are enough, those were Etna, Zoncolan and Pratonevoso. With Finestre as possible 4th, the rest alternatives if I fail in the main goals. Now already 4.. might end up at 7..

No problem not winning these stages for me, but you'll have to fight.
Pratonevoso I think I'll win. Unless a big group with 60-80 or better 70-80 goes. But I'll ride in the back with Matsushita-Valdelomar etc, you'll just need to go fast enough. Won't kill my team, so 2 each go red should actually do it.

Finestre is the biggest GC danger left. So there control might be tighter, somebody like Vienuolis joining the escape for safety very possible.
Last one. Looks perfect for a climber, control flat then see.
So possible I win 3 more stages, I'm confident enough to say that if I really want to, 95% I do. I don't really want to, so... try hard enough and it can work.
On the 2 flat stages I'll be in controlling help modus as usual.
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
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Robyklebt
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Re: Giro 2018 Afternoon (the only real Giro)

Post by Robyklebt » Mon May 21, 2018 3:35 pm

Jerseys: Rosa. I need to do big mistakes to lose it. Biggest danger for Zafzaf a Vienuolis-Aeschlimann alliance? Well no, but I really need to ride badly to lose Rosa.
Ciclamino: Fonda ahead, but he shouldn't score big on the 3 mountain stages. Placement of IS could be decisive. In Rome Fonda 6-10 as usual. On Wednesday very important, looks sprintish, but maybe possible to avoid it?
Can't really make a prediction without checking where the IS are, but open anyway. 3 way fight.
Azurra: Just got more difficult for Montesinos. IWas confident he'd get lots of points on the way to Sappada. Didn't and behind Pratonevoso coming. Then Finestre Cima Coppi. Escape for Cima Coppi with him. But Zafzaf will score points automatically a bit everywhere.
Bianca: Matsushita seems unlikely. Afshin almost as safe as Zafzaf. A bit less, but still.
Nera: Matsushita!!!
Kraftsystemrevision! Include the distance!
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Gipfelstuermer
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Re: Giro 2018 Afternoon (the only real Giro)

Post by Gipfelstuermer » Thu May 24, 2018 3:16 am

Gipfel and Australia prevent mass sprint - Faure wins a lot, Fonda only a bit

After the long time trial, peloton had to take on 155 somewhat hilly km to Iseo. Gipfel used an Aeschlimann sieb to ride against the sprinters. Does he have any problem with them? Maybe a bit with FL after Gran Sasso, but no, it's all about Ciclamino!

Surprisingly FL does not commit to second group. Keeps 3 riders in front, helps less than Tukh, and just as the group is about to catch the peloton, Marxer goes. Two other guys follow. Faure is stronger and takes the win. But Nguyen wins the sprint!

So bad luck for Fabio that the sprinters came back. Again no support from Donkey. Think it's over with his support. Or he feels very weak somehow. Maybe Ulle can attack GC? Or FL? But lucky that three other guys prevent the sprint. So now 9 points ahead of Nguyen and Perdomo. Win IS and prevent sprint in Roma? Actually both impossible. IS in difficult locations for Fabio. Roma totally flat. So Fabio will need a lot of luck.

But GC: Probably already too late for the GC contenders. But three difficult stages. If they constantly attack, maybe a small chance. But not Gipfel's business. Pedro misses all trainings so he's only #10 by now although he was #2 on Zoncolan. Will focus on azzuro and ciclamino. Both difficult by now but worth a try. So Giro probably ends in big success or big disappointment as of right now.
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Re: Giro 2018 Afternoon (the only real Giro)

Post by Gipfelstuermer » Fri May 25, 2018 2:37 am

Tappa 18 Prato Nevoso - The silence before the storm?

Australia wins another stage. This time Murchadh MacGorman out of an escape that the Donkey had simply let go to save energy for the GC fight on the upcoming two stages.

The only GC contender in the escape yesterday was Ulle. Can he attack GC on the Finestre stage or on the last opportunity to Cervinia? With three climbers he has some options. But if he goes on Finestre stage, Mahrez will be tired for Cervinia. What about FL? A bit inactive recently. Does he also wait for the right moment to attack GC? Pirhashemi lost some time yesterday . Less than expected, but still that increases the pressure to act.

Could become two exciting GC stages or two boring Zafzaf stages.
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Re: Giro 2018 Afternoon (the only real Giro)

Post by Gipfelstuermer » Mon May 28, 2018 6:18 pm

A dominant Zafzaf kept control of the GC and created a double victory with his fellow Aeschlimann. So can they dominate TdF and Vuelta as well? Or will they lose their incredible Giro form? How can long can they extend their remarkable career?

Pirhashemi as #3 and youth classement winner could be stronger by then. His performance and his training promise a lot for the future.

Similarly, Team Gipfelstuermer has proven their strength winning azzurra and ciclamino, while their leader Pinheiro disappointed the fans finishing only 12th. Perhaps he has put his form on the later GTs this year?

Mannschaftswertung: UllesTribute
Jungfahrertrikot: Afshin Pirhashemi (Team FL)
Sprinttrikot: Fabio Fonda (Gipfelstuermer)
Bergtrikot: Mateo Montesinos (Gipfelstuermer)
01. 00:00:00 Lotfi Zafzaf (Big Donkey)
02. 00:03:24 Caius Aeschlimann (Big Donkey)
03. 00:04:56 Afshin Pirhashemi (Team FL)
04. 00:06:28 Riyad Mahrez (UllesTribute)
05. 00:07:02 Blaise Mollard (Team Australia)
06. 00:07:54 SeungWon Min (Tukhtahuaev)
07. 00:08:14 Artyom Filatov (Luques)
08. 00:08:15 Alex Pelle (Mercatone-uno)
09. 00:08:22 Samuel Samba (UllesTribute)
10. 00:09:23 Giorgio Visconti (UllesTribute)
11. 00:13:44 Fabio Fonda (Gipfelstuermer)
12. 00:13:47 Pedro Pinheiro (Gipfelstuermer)
13. 00:15:22 Wilfried Faure (Team Australia)
14. 00:21:46 Nodirbek Tukhtasinov (Tukhtahuaev)
15. 00:22:25 Mateo Montesinos (Gipfelstuermer)
16. 00:25:24 Rakhmatillo Ashurmatov (Tukhtahuaev)
17. 00:27:04 Valentino Nibali (Mercatone-uno)
18. 00:36:01 Elias Tobar (Big Donkey)
19. 00:36:02 Glover Quin (Team Australia)
20. 00:39:54 Carlos Kaiser (Team FL)
GIP MASTERPLAN
Gameplay: Flexible Min-Tact. Improve Sprint System. Windkante.
Marketing: Re-attract old players. Advertisement. Social Media.
New Players: Fair Start Budget, New Tutorial.
Fairplay: Improve FPC features, Fair Prize Money Disribution.

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