SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

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team fl
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SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by team fl » Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:14 pm

Two stage late, but demanded by many (in my head), lazy FL (hyperactive FL got lost after Andes) opens the race thread for this years afternoon Dec Tour, SPIH Nostalgia, designed by Gipfelstuermer.

With a money wasting line-up, Team FL starts this Island hopping pre Christmas adventure. The following riders have been selection to join the fun:

x1 Willy Attison, Pene's soulmate
x2 Dong "Ding" Dong, doesn't open for everybody
x3 Nodirkhan "Khan" Kadyrkhanov, still unleashing his wrath
x4 JungGi "KJG" Kim "Kardashian", has his own reality TV show during this tour... (at least some money)
x5 Lukas "Luke" Marxer, still in Hugo's shadow
x6 Ngo "gogo" Nguyen, Does what he does best: winning flat stages.
x7 Serghei "Serge" Pascenco, now even better than Hannes Büchel
x8 Omar "Penis" Pene, Willy's soulmate
x9 Juan Villafuerte, somebody had to be No. 9 in the line-up...

Goal is the GC, and maybe one or two stage wins. And everything else, as usual, plus money laundring.
I didn't mean to say it. But I meant what I said.

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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by team fl » Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:23 pm

Favourite check:

General classement:

***** Nodirkhan Kadyrkhanov (Team FL), Lotfi Zafzaf (Big Donkey)
**** Bora Ergun (Tukhtahuaev), Giorgio Visconti (Mercatone-uno),
*** Nir Biton (Ulles Tribute)
** Rakhmatillo Ashurmatov (Tukhtahuaev), Omar Pene (Team FL)
* a surprise rider

Points classement:

*** Bora Ergun
** Francesco Consonni
* Etian Kaniuk

Mountain classement:

*** the one who wants it
** another rider
* a suprise rider

Youth classement:

*** Riyad Mahrez (UllesTribute)
** Islam Slimani (UllesTribute)
* a surprise rider)

Team classement:

*** UllesTribute
** Team FL
* Tukhtahuaev
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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:42 pm

Yes, yes, finally!
Was waiting for that and swearing at you (in my head) because you opened a pretty useless thread for the Andes, while this one here promises to be more interesting, or open, but you lazy FaulLilliputaner didn't open the thread.

I really don't know who the favorite is, didn't really consider Zafzaf to have such good chances, as you can see by my lineup. Zafzaf with the number 9 and Gopal as third best climber. Now... I think I'll ride for GC again. Zafzaf trained, 89 now, that helps.

Others with chances, Ergun, but he is behind in GC already, somehow thought he was ahead of Zafzaf... isn't. Ergun... Ergun... no Kanuk, he admits that Kaniuk is better, so Ergün is the logical GC choice for Tukhtahuaev. And IMO at least worth a try. Stages like yesterday or and even more today can be dangerous for the climber vs the classics. And in the second week as well. The problem could be the clustering of similar stages. 8-10 3 GC stages in a row, that usually promotes more passive riding. And 11 is another potential GC stage. But IMO would make sense for Ergun to somehow try something around there. Donkeys only have Sax, who has little reg. FL has Pene, but he can be the GC leader as well. And ok, that might be the problem for Ergun, he is ahead now, but with 77 mountain 24" aren't much. One sieb by Nodirkhanov on the last stage, then Nodir as help for the climb and downhill gives you more than enough time on Ergun.. normally. If on the other hand you ride for Kadyrkhanov, the reg in the back makes it hard for Tukhtahuaev too. Interesting sandwich he is in. Logically though you would try to profit from both the climber (Zafzaf) and the classic (Ergun) for as long as you can.
So I would rate Pene higher than you for the moment, he of course has the problem that if he becomes active himself, without the Tukh-boys, he most likely will be chased by those guys, for stage wins. Depending on the stage at least. IMO FL still has 2 good cards in the race.
GC wise for the Donkey the disappointment so far is Ulle. Biton+Mahrez and he clearly did the TT to let them lose time... why not try? Yes, of course by having a small deficit to catch up it becomes easier to get the big time win later in the race... but it's not like we'll all completely ignore him from now on, he still has a chance, but he needs the big time gain somewhere. But with 2 good climbers I'd have kept them closer, those few seconds less to gain at this point IMO would be worth it. But ok, let's see what he does, after the Andes I fear a bit that he'll just try to go for stages. But still hope he won't, and try the big GC attacks later.
Zafzaf... his biggest assets are 89 mountain and possibly conflicting interests of the other contenders. Ergun chasing Biton/Mahrez if they try. The opposite for Oen stage wins at times maybe too. OR for GC. Pene blocking Ergun attacks with his presence. Etc etc. So in the end his chances actually seem quite ok. Sax of course can be a help too, but not good enough to defend Zafzaf from repeated strong attacks. One day ok, the next one... no. The rest of the team... well, Gopal is a star, but not shining brightly enough. Of course Tobar would have made sense, why both Almeida and Onetti? Well, the Donks wasn't in the mood for an expensive team and for big GC riding. Like this ok too.

Others: Don't really see Visconti, Schopp or a Moscow guy competing for the GC win. An escape that goes through with lots of advantage seems the only realistic hope for those 3 teams to get the GC win.
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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:44 pm

Ah, I'm a big fan of Kaniuk, but having him that high up in the points classement thing, in front of Nguyen!!! (No go Nguyen maybe?) seems a bit optimistic even for me.
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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by Tukhtahuaev » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:54 pm

Favo check seems about right. Ergun with chances, but it's going to be difficult. Might have been better to take Khamdamov as an additional classic rider to really dominate in that department.

For green I would put Nguyen as third favo. Don't see Kaniuk getting enough points in hilly stages.

Ulle should have taken at least one climber less. I hope he doesn't just attack for stages all the time.

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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by luques » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:43 pm

Error in the title is wanted because you don't feel nostalgia? :)

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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by team fl » Thu Dec 07, 2017 10:57 am

luques wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:43 pm
Error in the title is wanted because you don't feel nostalgia? :)
Psst!
I didn't mean to say it. But I meant what I said.

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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:13 am

First week mostly about stages, as could be expected.
Vakoc got yellow, kept it until stage 6, where he was siebed (by a covering sieb really) and lost it to Moser from Mercatone.
Stages, 2 for Ergun. Who then was the clear favorite for green as well. As well as being in the GC fight. But Tukh was offline yesterday, so lost lots of points for green. Since their shouldn't be too many sprints anymore, only one more, he still has pretty good chances to end up in green, but got more difficult.
Stuyven with 2 stages as well, 90 points now. Second is Nguyen with 88 points, he won his stage yesterday. Third Kaniuk, who won a stage too, a ridiculous finish with a ridiculous winner :lol: 69 points. Then Consonni 65, Ergun 64 Biton and Makarowa 61. Pretty open, Stuyven vs Ergun would be my guess. With Nguyen and Biton as outsiders. Nguyen outsider because he'll just be a helper for most of next week. While Stuyven normally should be protected. And might try to get some points from escapes or by keeping the peloton together until the first intermediate(Nguyen would profit from that too). Ergun will automatically get his points here and there, same as Biton. Pretty open actually, seemed already over before yesterday.

Another fight was for the mountain jersey so far. Zafzaf got it on the first day, Tazlauanu a day later, then Zafzaf again. Which enraged Girl power, how dare somebody do something without her explicit permission.... and so she announced that she wasn't interested in red and started riding for it. :? Zafzaf saw that it seemed pretty easy to get the red in the first week, and keep it for a while, so why not. Second week though the GC is clearly the no 1 priority. But if Zafzaf is eliminated from that fight, a possibility thanks to his weakish team, then going for red is another option, so another reason to get as many as possible of the easy points in the first week. We'll see how that develops. After the non-interest displayed by his manager in the first week, Winter who is 8 points back should normally easily take over and win red. Only question is if Winter will be let go. Since Girl showed once again that she prefers nonsensical riding for "revenge" to riding for her own advantage.... like sieb and try to go with a climbers group because Zafzaf goes for red. Even if that group never really had a chance of going anywhere and just killed her own chances to achieve something with a group. Or do a sprint leadout for Mosca since Ergun dared sprinting at an intermediate, For green according to her, for GC mostly according to most others. In the end completely irrelevant what the sprint was for, Ergun can sprint whenever he likes, plus Girl is neither in the GC fight nor in the green fight, so really completely irrelevant for her, but since it wasn't explicitly approved by Girl it needed immediate revenge... so she did a pointless leadout for Mosca. So... while normally Winter could go and take red easily, at least temporarily, but possibly for good as well, in this specific case it might not be so easy. The Donkey, but maybe other GC or stage guys too, don't know, might not want to risk a "Girl revenge action", involving a 50 km chase early in a GC stage... Those revenge actions seemingly can be triggered by anything, so better take no risk and not let any Girl power guys get useful time in escapes. That will of course trigger other revenge actions. The question is which of the revenge actions are least hurtful. The Donkey will use the day off to analyze that. And then act accordingly.

Finally GC: Nothing much happened really after the GC.
The thing that worries the Donkey most is that FL seems to have supreme confidence in Kadyrkhanov. Right now he has 26" on Zafzaf, 28" on Ergun, 52" on Ashurmatov, who could be a second option for Tukhtahuaev if Ergun is too tightly marked, 55" on Biton...FL went so far to cover a few km with Pene against a ERgun attack, he went in earlier than the Donkey with Sax! The Donkey of course had absolutely no choice but go in with Sax, since Sax is already out of GC. But FL still has Pene in the race somehow, 1'03" behind, so 35" on Ergun. So he seems to fully believe in Kadyrkhanov. Which has the Donkey worried.
To win Kadyrkhanov needs to occasionally win some time on Zafzaf, attacks in flattish parts, since coming into the last km when it's an uphill finish, would probably result in Kadyrkhanov losing time. Team is good, Pene 77 and 57 reg, and Villafuerte 68 but no reg.
Zafzaf to win needs to stay with Kadyrkhanov, and beat him for stage wins and bonifications. And needs to limit potential losses to Ergun obviously. Team not too strong, Sax 74 no reg, little downhill, Gopal 62, reg and downhill, but 62 is 62. The big problem will arise when (or if... be positive) Kadyrkhanov joins Ergun on an attack.
Ergun needs to gain time on all obviously. Depending on how they are ridden, all stages offer some possibilites for him , but of course risk too. Team is good, but, only on top. 74-72-68, then a 61 and that's all. One more classic or Kanuk would have made sense IMO. LIke this I'd rate FLs team higher, Pene is huge, and if FL and Donks ever feel to the need to combine their teams against Tukh.. then he's in big trouble. But ok, that's true for Donks vs FL and Tukh too. And the rather unlikely combi Donks+Tukh vs FL as well (unlikely because D+T don't seem so compatible rider wise)

Outsider at this point is Biton, to win he needs a big coup, he has a bunch of possible riders to help Biton or Mahrez if he/they decide to go early. Strength is still the reg monsters Fosse, Parfait and Dodi. Classics Refaelov 71 and Oen 68.. usable, but weaker than FL. 3 climbers though one (Slimani) too many.

Let's see how this develops.
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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by team fl » Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:30 am

After you did the descriptive part, I will present the statistics (or yours words in tables) about the first week:

General classement:

01. 00:00 Mario Moser (Mercatone-uno)
02. 00:30 Lukas Marxer (Team FL)
03. 00:58 Nodirkhan Kadyrkhanov (Team FL)
04. 00:58 Giorgio Visconti Mercatone-uno
05. 01:24 Lotfi Zafzaf (Big Donkey)
06. 01:26 Bora Ergun (Tukhtahuaev
07. 01:50 Rakhmatillo Ashurmatov (Tukthahuaev)
08. 01:53 Nir Biton (UllesTribute)
09. 01:54 Salvatore Nibali (Mercatone-uno)
10. 01:57 Ulrike Schopp (Girl Power)
11. 02:01 Omar Pene (Team FL)
12. 02:03 Islam Slimani (UllesTribute)
13. 02:04 Nodirbek Tukhtasinov (Tukhtahuaev)
14. 02:04 Riyad Mahrez (UllesTribute)
15. 02:36 Christina Owens (Girl Power)

What the Donkey said. I think the GC is still very open for lots of riders. The profiles in the second week offer plenty of opportunities for teams to change this table. And don't mix confidence with cluelessness... But the riders with the best chances on paper should be Khan, Zafzaf, Ergun, Biton, Pene.

Points classement:

01. 090 Edward Stuyven (Mosca Cicli Italia)
02. 088 Ngo Nguyen (Team FL)
03. 069 Eitan Kaniuk (Big Donkey)
04. 065 Francesco Consonni (Mosca Cicli Italia)
05. 064 Bora Ergun (Tukhtahuaev)
06. 061 Nir Biton (UllesTribute)

I also think that it will be either Ergun, Biton or Stuyven winning the points classement. Will be interesting to see what Mosca will do for it. I guess it also depends on the development of the GC chances for Ergun, and if he changes his goals to green or not.

Mountain classement:

01. 038 Lotfi Zafzaf
02. 030 Wilhelmine Winter

Basically Comes down to These two riders, as Big D. already expalined. Maybe a UllesTribute reg guy like Jon Fosse could interfer a bit.

Youth classement:

01. 00:00 Mario Moser (Mercatone-uno)
02. 01:54 Salvatore Nibali (Mercatone-uno)
03. 02:03 Islam Slimani (UllesTribute)
04. 02:04 Nodirbek Tukhtasinov (Tukhtahuaev)
05. 02:04 Riyad Mahrez (UllesTribute)

Looks like Mahrez will do it, although it depends how much UllesTribute will use him as a helper for and Biton. But still then, I don't see anyone else being able to compete against the UT Duo Slimani/Mahrez.

Team classement:

01. 00:00 Mercatone-uno
02. 00:55 Team FL
03. 01:51 Mosca Cicli Italia

This is hard to predict as succesfull escapes may change a lot. But it will most likely not look like this in the final results, as esp. Mosca does not have a well-suited team fo the upcoming hilly stages.

Stage wins by rider:

2 - Bora Ergun (Tukhtahuaev)
2 - Edward Stuyven (Mosca Cicli Italia)
1 - Eitan Kaniuk (Big Donkey)
1 - Ngo Nguyen (Team FL)
1 - Jan Vakoc (Mosca Cicli Italia)

Stage wins by team:

3 - Mosca Cicli Italia
2 - Tukhtahuaev
1 - Big Donkey
1 - Team FL
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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:30 pm

Interesting stage yesterday, even if I missed most of it. Offline with visit..... Good move by Ulle, attacking on the hill, was obvious, but despite that it worked. Reaction in the back wasn't perfect either, Donks was off again, bad riding, should have put in offline tempo with Gopal from the start. And probably then should have ridden with Sax... deal with FL, Sax rides the mountain, after that Pene helps, does some km alone to compensate or so too... .Or ask him to ride with Villafuerte the mountain, then Sax joins on top, something like that. Instead we went up with low 60 guys, too slow. From a strategic point of view I wouldn't even have minded losing time to Visconti and Mahrez... but being back over 2' resp. over 1'... that's a bit too much. Now looks good for Mahrez IMO. Visconti has no team, will be very hard defending that minute. But he's yellow, he has a chance. Mahrez 1'02" Then Kadyrkhanov 2'06". And Zafzaf 2'25". Not completely out those 2 I'd say, but of course difficult now, but again still 2 mountain days to go. Not impossible. Visconti has a rather weak team, but Ulle's on the other hand is good, but lacks the strong classic.
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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by team fl » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:51 am

Everything is back together again in the GC, although Mahrez has still a 17'' advantage against Kadyrkhanov and 40'' against Zafzaf. Anyway, very intersting stage 10. One sad note was that Visconti gave up his yellow by just stopping tempo in the last downhill. If he goes on, he would still have it. Not explanation by his team about special team orders though. Anyway, he's still in one minute (57''). So everything looks like Mahrez, esp. with that team and the upcoming stage profiles. But you never know.

Another very intersting classement seems to be green. I guess it's Ergun vs. Stuyven with some chances for Nguyen too. Biton and Kadyrkhanov seem to be out of the race.
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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:36 am

Yes, Kadyrkhanov and Zafzaf are back in. Way in. Because especially for Kadyrkhanov 17" to gain back seem nothing. Zafzaf? I was always confident to get around 20" on the last stage to Kadyrkhanov, but somehow right now less... That damn Kadyrkhanov was strong yesterday. Stronger than Zafzaf on a 7? Same on a 9? Grr.

Think the attack by Ulle was contra productive yesterday, was very sure to get them back easily, was tighter than I thought then..., Pene not riding the 3 clearly! So for Zafzaf and the Donkeys a good day yesterday. But still 23" to Kadyrkhanov doesn't make me too happy.

What might help Mahrez a lot is Viscontis collapse. By having Mahrez in front of Visconti now, Slimani is useful as a helper on Sunday. Mahrez alone in a downhill, or even with Biton, big problem. But waiting a few seconds for Slimani will help. Do what he tried yesterday, Let Biton wait for Slimani, bring him up the mountain, let Slimani then do the downhills. Who then should lose nothing, rather gain time, on the downhills. But still, 17 seconds are very little, and to be honest I think Slimani will be much more than 17" back on top of the mountain on Sunday. Then get back time.. enough? Because on the flat there will be a timeloss to Kadyrkhanov again. But ok, might be 3 vs one, so maybe in the last flat and the last little bump there it works.

But all that is concentrating on Sunday and ignoring today. Another stage where some stuff might happen in the GC. Looks predestined for Ergun, really, but there could be time differences or at least bonifications between the climbers too.
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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by Tukhtahuaev » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:01 am

I think Slimani is going to lose more than 17 seconds on the last stage. Difficult for Mahrez then. My money would be on Kadyrkhanov at the moment, but still extremely close.

For green I would expect one of Stuyven and Nguyen to win on Saturda and also win green. Ergun definitely needs a win today, but even that might not be enough

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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:18 pm

Damn... Donkey too paranoid about intermediates, so rather doesn't block but tries a second stealing attack... in the same moment the others go... with Kadyrkhanov following. Damn, Now 1'03" behind, lost 40" including bonifications, that's it. No double double after all (Giro+Tour, Andes+December Tour) Stupid Donkey, nobody but himself to blame, should have blocked and hope the sprint settings that were prepared for the intermediates are good enough. And block in the meantime.

Green looks more like Stuyven-Ngo than Ergun right now. ERgun's day off hurts him a lot.
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Re: SPIH Nostaliga (Dec Tour 2017) 15h

Post by Robyklebt » Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:14 am

Last day with a stage for Zafzaf, good. Was actually very convinced to get that stage the whole tour... the question was by how much. In the end was very close, and lucky, 2", a second km "Yes alone" by Kadyrkhanov, or Slimani not missing one of the downhill km early and Zafzaf would have been caught.
I think it would have been a clearer stage win without the my big mistake on stage 11, if Kadyrkhanov is still behind Mahrez, he can't really wait for Pene, because then he would be carrying him, Attack with Pene in the flat, ok, that can work, the problem is that Pene would have lost time to Slimani in the downhill. But ok, academic discussion, Donks thought not blocking was better on stage 11, so Kadyrkhanov really had the GC almost assured before the last stage. Like this logically waiting for Pene, then of course in the flat parts Zafzaf lost lots. But luckily hung on.
So Kadyrkhanov first, for a long time I was convinced I was going to beat him, too used to winning long stage races it seems, but first Mahrez attack in one way complicated things, we had to gain time back, I couldn't use stage 11 to try to get time back on him. And then stage 11 sealed it. Deserved win, his manager, believed in him from the start, I thought that going for Pene would make as much sense, but in the end we rode the mountains harder than I thought we would, so Ergun/Pene were distanced quite clearly. But ok, had FL decided to try for a double leadership as long as he could, maybe they would have gained some more time? But as I said, this FL seemed very confident in Kadyrkhanov from the start, rode exclusively for him in the GC, and he was right. Good possible career end for Kadyrkhanov, after finishing 2nd in the Giro, 3rd in the Tour and again second in the Andes, finally the big win. Well deserved.
Second Mahrez, it's still a mystery why he and Biton didn't ride the TT full power, that was already a 1' lost to Kadyrkhanov. Yes, if he's closer maybe the reaction to his attack on stage 9 is harder, likely. But it's likely as well that he still gets to attack and gains some time... Having 2 guys for GC allowed him to chose with which one to attack, even if he had been closer doubt that Kadyrkhanov or Zafzaf would have been hanging there. Then like the Donkey he fucked up stage 11 by not blocking. In the end still second place.
Third Zafzaf, already mentioned. Decisive moments already mostly mentioned too.
- Weak team, with a strong team, no caribbean dead guys, Almeida+Salkey, or max, 1, instead Tobar and maybe even Vienuois, and I have much better chances to win it. Best climber, strong support team. But, didn't really believe in the pure climbers chances before the Tour. And actually don't really regret the weak team either, after all it makes races more interesting when everybody has some weaknesses. Was ok like that. Strong team is for the Giro, and ok, the Andes, since we usually have a strong mountain team around November. But the rest, incl. Tour? No need for an absolute top team.
- Stage 9, the attack by Mahrez, positive that he gained time and was ahead, took pressure off the Donkeys, liked that. But he gained too much, a bit less and Zafzaf can somehow try to gain time back to everybody on stage 10.
- Stage 11, no block.

Green: Stuyven. Deserved too, even if Ergun would have really deserved it too as well. He payed for his day off with not sprint, he would have scored the necessary 5 points there for sure.
Stage wins: 4 Moscow, 3 Donkey 2 Tukh, FL and Ulle, Mercatone, mostly passive as he usually is, and Girl Power, with no stage. But the mountain jersey for Girl Power.
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