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The hardest race of the year. Try to have a high-mountain high-reg team, so Gipfel will start with the following lineup:

1) Carlos Coelho 82 - 53 - 69 - 59 - 50 - 55 (59reg)
2) Fabio Fonda 74 - 59 - 75 - 50 - 59 - 59 (43reg)
3) Oscar Oliveira 69 - 77 - 60 - 51 - 52 - 70 (49reg)
4) Bonifacio Basto 68 - 76 - 69 - 49 - 60 - 68 (47reg)
5) Anibal Alves 63 - 78 - 72 - 55 - 53 - 70 (56reg)
6) Giuseppe Genovese 63 - 75 - 72 - 64 - 62 - 75 (41reg)
7) Halvard Halvorsen 60 - 79 - 72 - 53 - 45 - 75 (51reg)
8) Mateo Montesinos 57 - 72 - 64 - 46 - 48 - 73 (49reg)
9) Magnus Martinsen 50 - 85 - 70 - 49 - 56 - 75 (49reg)

Goal: Waste a lot of money. Making sure noone arrives with 9 riders in Lita. Winning a jersey. Which jersey? Depends on the peloton. White, Red, Yellow, Everything is possible.

I'll start here, too, probably, with this lineup:

Chris Bonigton
Calvin de Haan
Shayne Gostisbehere
Lauri Markkanen
Andrei Mironov
Shane Ray
Seishiro Sakurazuka
Kamui Shiro
Subaru Sumeragi

The lineup is slightly below 375k, which is neccessary due to lack of amibiton. As I already know to miss a minimum of 3 stages, probably more, the only goal is to win a stage. Chances are few though, but ok, it's Campeonato, that's probably the real reason to ride.

Ok, so let's do a favo check:

General Classement
***** Nicolas Andros (Team Gismo)
*** Orlando Salazar (Uhlsport)
** Anghelache Anton (Tusnad Cyc Team)
* Carlos Coelho (Gipfelstuermer)

86 mountain, 59 TT is nearly impossible to beat. Gismo also has good helpers in his team, so Andros will do it, but probably without many stage wins. That's hard for Salazar, who wanted to win another big race after Vuelta 2017 and show his old manager Liqui how strong he still is. Anton is quite strong, but his team can not help so much in the Andes. Carlos has what Anton has not but his own skill set is not strong enough with 4 mountain points less than Andros.

Mountain classement
***** A classic who sacrifices GC for the mountai jersey
*** Somebody who pushes really really hard for it
** A mountain rider by accident
* Somebody from a strong team, who isn't a classic

Sprint classement
***** Josafat Janiaczyk (Whisbone)
**** Nuno Stocklasa (Liberty Sartene)
*** Nicolae Dica (John Deere)
*** Clemente Tedesco (Liberty Sartene)

There are a few flat stages on this course, so Dica and Tedesco have a chance if and only if they survive the other stages. Generally, Stocklasa and most importantly Janiaczyk seem to have better chances. They have a good team and might create some hill sprints.

Youth classement
***** Carlos Coelho (Gipfelstuermer)
*** Piotrek Paluta (Whisbone)
** Subaru Sumeragi (Cerro Torre RT)
* Kurisu Yukine (r Sukuran Pokemon)

Carlos seems unstoppable but the other youth riders can profit from higher training probability.

Team classement
***** Gipfelstuermer
**** Hessen Cycling
*** Whisbone
* Team Gismo

Gismo will have to work a lot for GC while the other three have good chances through their team with good mountain skills and the opportunity to go into successful escapes.

Agree for most part, but would have the following adjustments.

On GC, Salazar is on the same level as Anton to me, as his team lacks any >63 mountain helper, which will leave him alone often, and he has a weal downhill value, which hewill suffer from in this tour. Hence, I'd leave *** unoccupied. The difference is that big.

Mountain I don't care for.

Sprint:
Stocklasa is my call here. Sprinters out completly, they are so few that even in flat stages they don't win much. Montoya will have GC duties I guess, and Janiaczyk... guess he doesn't win a lot on few flat stages but will lose more every hilly r mountain stage. *** for him, **** for Stocklasa, ** for Bonigton probably, and * for any surpise rider (climbers)

Youth:
Correct so far, and I see why you put Sumeragi in there, but he will not compete for that.

Team, sorry don't care about that either.

GK seems to be difficult for a climbers, some good classic took a lot of time already

Looks like none of them has the intention to fight for GC, so naturally, this one shifts towards the time trailers.

GC after Stage 9

1.) + 00:00 Hibiki Tachibana (r Sukuran Pokemon) 75-61-77-61-47-59KSP (65 Reg)
2.) + 02:34 Walenty Warchol (Whisbone) 70-76-77-75-57-74KSP (57 Reg)
3.) + 03:48 Oscar Oliveira (Gipfelstuermer) 69-77-60-51-52-68KSP (49 Reg)
4.) + 03:50 Carlos Coelho (Gipfelstuermer) 82-53-69-59-50-51KSP (59 Reg)
5.) + 05:29 Walter Ciab (waerl) 79-50-75-50-56-50KSP (52 Reg)
6.) + 06:46 Pierre Rolande (pontepiscopiens) 69-74-58-69-56-67KSP (55 Reg)
7.) + 10:30 Fabio Fonda (Gipfelstuermer) 75-60-75-50-59-64KSP (43 Reg)
8.) + 18:10 Nicolas Andros (Team Gismo) 86-60-75-59-50-56KSP (49 Reg)

What happened?
On Stage 4, the big favorite, Bolivian national star and Andes Favorite Nicolas Andros (Team Gismo) lost 5min in the flat to some classic/TT riders including Walenty Warchol (Whisbone). But even worse, he gave up all his ambitions on Stage 5, losing nearly 25min uphill to Charahuayto. Although online, his team simply did not ride and allowed successful attacks by the classics and by Gipfelstuermers team including Oscar Oliveira, Carlos Coelho and Fabio Fonda. None of the climber teams reacted! Big mistake by their managers.

From Stage 6 it was clear that the strongest and most expensive team (nearly 500k) Gipfelstuermer would have to ride hard for Carlos Coelho. By siebing early and hard during 256km to Irupana and also during 195km to La Paz on Stage 7, his team was able to weaken Walenty Warchol (Whisbone) and reduce 8min to 3:15min. Especially an early sieb on Camino de la Muerte helped him gain time vs. both Walenty Warchol (Whisbone) and Hibiki Tachibana (r Sukuran Pokemon), who was placed between Warchol and Coelho.

However, Warchol gained back 45 seconds in the TT on Galapagos on Stage 8. With 4:00min behind, Gipfelstuemer again siebed early on the dificult Stage 9 up to Loja in Ecuador. While during the HC-stages in Week 1, the Grupetto worked really well, this time many riders fell far behind, could not keep Gipfelstuermer's tempo and are now out of the race. In total 50 riders have given up now. The strategy was strong and Warchol was isolated for the last mountain, loosing more than 2 minutes to Coelho. But, while the two favorite teams were fighting each other, 2nd-placed Hibiki Tachibana (r Sukuran Pokemon) used his chance and rode away on the mountain road to Pucashpa, taking the yellow jersey.

The race continues with 9 Gipfelstuermer's, 8 Whisbone's and only 4 Pokemon's. Two short hilly stages, two pave stages and one mountain finish will bring the decision. Gipfel may be the favorite due to his strong team and the time he can gain on Stage 14 up to Laguna de Cuicocha, but Whis and Poke have proven their extraordinary management skills. They still lead the GC and wll have an advantage on the pave. The decision will probably happen on Laguna de Cuicocha and it depends how much time Coelho will have to gain there.

Looking forward to the next stages.

It will be an easy win for Coelho