Tour de France (the second most important GT) 16h

[Robyklebt]

Yep, thought it was a hopeless stage for attacks actually... Really expected you to go full power early on. Good for me you weren't.
Actually in retrospect maybe if you had ridden up with Guttenberg the last hill? Forget Tychonoff, bring him back with the other one after the hill... then probably I don't get it... then ok, Olteanu close, can follow Tychonoff, but can't drop many, or anybody... But good for me you didn't.

[HeidfeldFanclub]

Yep, thought it was a hopeless stage for attacks actually... Really expected you to go full power early on. Good for me you weren't.
Actually in retrospect maybe if you had ridden up with Guttenberg the last hill? Forget Tychonoff, bring him back with the other one after the hill... then probably I don't get it... then ok, Olteanu close, can follow Tychonoff, but can't drop many, or anybody... But good for me you didn't.

Yeah, maybe I would have done so, don't know, cause I mainly wasn't on but had a sitter - so it is hard for me to speculate what could have been done, because I don't know exactly what have been done

[Robyklebt]

Not much happening here...
Strange days in the alps, the race suffers a bit from Heidfelds and Edes absence often.. .Porrentruy Olteanu, with those too on, no chance.
Same thing over the Grand Colombier, nothing at all happened there at first, was really strange
Then yesterday, again, Madeleine nothing happening, from the big boys... so in the end it was the small boys who dominated. Unfortunately not this small boy.. although his attack with Trapani was the first small boy attack... in the back then Escartinos with Samurai and others on his wheel followed a bit later. In the peloton Tdot with his 50 climbers in tempo... But yeah, Heidfeld there still offline, Ede too I think. Would really have expected to at least get rid of Tdots 50 army there, just to leave him with less helpers. Even BW doing it, it certainly wouldn't hurt him to have a weakened Tdot later on. But no... strange.
So the small boys group, without Trapani, who was dropped, no fighting, but not fit at the start and earlier attack with tempo, so even with fighting he is dropped I fear, gets the win and yellow. Racer win!
Behind then a sieb, was really super clear it was going to happen, BW not fighting, dropped... even if he fights, he loses some time in the end, that's clear. But like this 2'... like Ramirez, he followed the first sieb.. .but then towards la Toussuire... less energy, since all my helpers had been either in front pulling Trapani or in the back, worse recovery in the downhill... so... dropped too. Dropping Apes day... but was a fun stage. Loser of the day yesterday... Diamantis? Maybe... but BWs whole attitude sucks anyway, no chance, no chance, so let's hope he really has no chance.
IMO he still has.

GC
Tanaka: Should be easily be beaten by many, but if Heidfeld stays offline... he might end up being the best climber in the GC, since BW just sits there and complains anyway.
Christiantoko: IMO Excods still can get him. And likely will. But looks good otherwise.
Manic: 30" back to Christiantoko, less hill, more TT, more flat. Will get him I think. 2'13" to Tanaka
Diamantis: 1' to Christiantoko, 2'47" to Tanaka, all possible, even if the reg won't help. but it wont help Tanaka much either 42 not that brillant as well. Has to try to profit from the climbers sooner or later..Of course not fighting really hurt... at least 1' too many lost. Less than 2' to Guttenberg now, but he can expect to win 3'30" or so in the final TT... roughly lose the same or a bit more to Manic. According to BW it's impossible it seems.
Rodriguez 3'30"... more reg, more mountain than Diamantis, less TT... still, for me if certain stages go the right win, he still can win.
Guttenberg: 4'20"... with a 84 helper, he is the guy that looks decisive for a lot of the things, if he can be on for the pyrenees, he'll do the massacre... and chances to be the one to profit from it as well, not only stage wins... Even without massacre he got over 2' to La Toussuire... all open.
Pardo 4'44, less mountain. less TT, but more reg.. .the second guy that is important for the race... together with Guttenberg they can make big differences. Then he still has to beat Theo, ok.
Ramirez: The real favorite at 6'34" He survived all downhills well enough so far, for the rest he is involved in a fight for the leadership with Trapani. Missed a good chance yesterday actually, just follow escartinos attack.. can't go wrong... if Escartinos then stops, good for Trapani in front, some chances for the stage, if not good for Ramirez.. stage chance and 4' or so minutes better in the GC.. but then probably others would have reacted harder in the back, so bla bla. Anyway, Yesid is a huge danger.

[Robyklebt]

Mmh, lots ado about nothing finally.

I know, much easier to criticize as a spectator, which I am here basically when it comes to the GC, but why not...

IMO Heidfeld wanted too much today. Not only time on the Hubers, but on BW as well. Yes, he needs time on both, but usually it's easier to to fight one enemy at a time. So first, why not let BW in front? We finally got some time, then first Samurais, then Heidfeld forced the group in tempo. In Samurais case.. ok, he could be one of the losers if BW is in front. Heidfeld? Not really, it helps him. Interestingly then it was Samurais who said to Heidfeld that it didn't seem to make much sense for him to keep the BW group weakened. Fully agree. A Gibb after the first hill would have been worth a lot (but we were FAAAAAR from having that kind of advantage anyway.)
Then the Sieb, Theo I guess? Good, and Heid created an excellent situation for the climbers there. Then..... Tychonoff probably too weak anyway, big chances it would all have come back by carrying him over the Mur de punaise....hihi. So then attack... IMO what would have made sense there was: SIEB. Make the 3 km with Theo, then ask for help. Theo, Pardo, Rodriguez for sure stay in front. The 85 guys... not completely sure at 13/12/11... Hopefully Ramirez stays, Diamantis dropped and the rest dropped. hihi. Then ask for help... yes, it risks being a difficult job, the more the more complicated plus Heidfeld actually is very bad at building coalitions.. since you ask everything of everybody at time and attack them 2' later (sometimes) it's kind of a question of trust. So would be difficult. But you really made your own bed on that one IMO. But the small group, Pardo/Theo/Rodriguez... that could have worked IMO .You GC time, Rodriguez the same, Pardo too, but more difficult for him, promise him that you won't sprint (like you said you wanted after the attack) Then you are 3.... no attack, more energy, IMO chances to get to the goal, maybe not a huge time win, but not a supersmall one either. Diamantis and co stay... BW really has no choice but to help too, he's riding strangely, agreed, but IMO he would have done that. The others... Ramirez... well, for a few guys that are not allowed to sprint, Diamantis and Theo, ok.. Rodriguez and Pardo stay in all the time.. .Ok I help for some chances for the stage in the flat.. Of course not easy to get the whole group, including racer, Alex to cooperate.. but maybe one or 2 or more of those 85 are dropped. IMO at that point the best chance. Then yes, Samurais rides in the back too... but maybe he waits and attacks to carry his star later.. Let's see... but letting Gibb over the first hill for sure wouldn't have hurt the plan either... Like this.. finally nothing. Heid alone, and it was clear he wouldn't be a winnner of the day. Wanting too much, wanted time from everybody.

Tychonoff attack earlier.. IMO Tychonoff there was too weak already, no chance against those from behind... Maybe just get some time on Yericho then and put him in too? Was clear Theo was going to get caught, save something ,ride with Tychonoff, hope to save a few second from Yericho, you never know.

BW not better... Bourne in the back, the only guy who never worked.... the Tdot in tempo forever, Samurais and Colding chasing him, Bourne doing nothing. So most energy of all, clearly. TRY for gods sake, attack, get Bourne in front and gain a few seconds on him. Yes, carry Exocds, Heidfeld and the whole rest.... but it seems BW was too upset about this 1'50" that Heidfeld threw away by attacking. Of course it wasn't 1'50", With Savic riding it would have been much less on top anyway if Tychonoff has to follow. And Tychonoff would have lost lots of time on the Tdot train in the flat too, would hae been less than 30" if even that IMO with the Tychonoff try. So instead of making the best of the situation... he rides for place 2, didn't do anything else with Bourne. Attakc in the back, you should be stronger than the Tdot by then... if not, ok, at least you tried. And that one was really obvious AND easy.

Mbak, of course he could have tried too, but in his case.... such an easy stage win, plus important green points.. .right decision. Maybe he could have tried a downhill attack with Rodriguez, then attack with Gonzales, then gain time on everybody except Theo... but just had this idea now.. .mmh, should have put Trapani on him!!! Too late and didn't do it... but why not try, could have worked the km that then the climbers group waited for EXO. Who follows? Who knows. (but yeah, didn't see that in the race really)

Again, I know easier to see it if you are basically uninvolved, just passively hanging alone like me... still, both Heidfeld and BW could really have made more of the situation. Cooperate today, fight in 3 days... but try to get a little bit as often as you can... by continuing like that, in the end you will have to beat everybody in one stage. Then you will have to try to force it. Or just give up. Help each other, USE each others strenghts when it makes sense.

[Robyklebt]

Bored, too hot to go out for the weak Ape today.. nothing to do, so let's analyze our little tour so far:

Team votes:

Heidfeld: 6: Too much offline finally. Ok, got 3 stage wins already I think, good. Although with Theo he of course was the favorite on 3 stages probably already. So despite 3 stage wins it's a 6, could even be a 5. Due to being offline he missed much of the first 2 mountain stages, and the stage to Porrentruy. Stages where with his team he could have, and probably would have made the race hard. Then kind of a failure IMO on the Foix stage. Just wanting all in one, instead of winning time here and there on this guy today, the other guy tomorrow. For a GC chance that's what would be needed, rather win 30" on EXO and Tdot and nothing on BW than nothing on everybody.

Edewecht: 4: Too much offline, too passive. He has chances to win almost everywhere, but really often just isn't there. So Brattveen nothing, Guaranies nothing, Pardo nothing. Pardo ok, hard against Theo, but somehow by being offline he never even comes into the position that would be needed for Brattsveen and Guaranies. And that wasn't hopeless IMO.

Bergwerk: 5 Better than Ede, because he's on and active. The question is just how. Instead of actually riding for something, he rides a bit for everything. Dead guys in the escape every day, guys that would be useful the next day used senselessly the day before. Seems like he has no goals, just tags along. Ok, the stupid team classification. Next time BW is in an escape like that I chase, now he actually defends it, even if it isn't necessary, he'll win it even if Racer had 5' advantage now. Yes, he didn't profit from Heidfeld being off, he really needed him on to make the race hard. But even then not good riding... like when Heid was off a km or so, so the next mountain came. WE NEED Figueroa. And HIll, my dear BW. But no, Hill can't it seems, not without Figueroa, rather have Tychonoff lose double the energy by riding alone. Bad riding, sorry. But he's used to ape criticism. One of my favorite hobbies. Again, he seems just to ride for stage wins/GC (badly) and mostly: MONEY. Instead of focusing on a few more important goals.

MBak: 7: Very very passive, but has green and a stage. GC IMO he had chances, but again, he needed a more active Heidfeld there, to hope to profit.

Petit Singe: 10: Outstanding riding, no not Fabulous, but apetastic. Ok ok, just 6... 2 stage wins, mmh, maybe 7? Too optimistic about green at the start, was clear that with those sprinters sooner or later would be nothing. Offensive with Trapani and Ramirez, just the timing seems to be completely off.... Attacking most of the days, which by now bores him a bit, but ok, got 2 stage wins out of it. Not brilliant in the mountain and sprint, good in escape it seems. Risk of big fine always there though, no not Samurais, not much that guy says makes sense, but at least he rides ok (not always either, some actions at the start of the tour were ...... as well), but some of the riding of the rest....

Tdot: 6 Not saying anything makes more than 6 impossible anyway. GC good with Yericho, profited from utter stupidity of all the other GC potential early on to get a few seconds. Which might save him later on actually. He'll likely win more time to Exo now (losing temporarily was because of waiting for his classic). Won a sprint, that was actually deserved, he started of riding for sprints well, then somehow stopped.

escartinos: 6 Still unable to cooperate in the peloton, still no stage win. Rides behind other people senselessly sometimes. 6 for his good attack towards La Toussuire, that day a 10 actually. The rest of the time mostly a 4. Instead of trying to build coalitions for his sprinters, he expects to be brought there. Yes, some days Martin was going to be out of the race, but stage wins were possible. He rather not try than work and lose.

portiolo: 7. Surprisingly. Even his friends always tell him he's worthless as a manager.... I tend to agree often. Here he rides for red, and he'll very likely win it. For the rest.... Best sprinter, he sabotages him actively, he even managed to get his only flat rider kicked out of the tour. Just ride with your useless guys at the start of the stages, leave red for later or stages that will be hard. Rossiilcapitano has a horrible name, but is a superb sprinter, a dream. 54-60! And 53 reg is kind of nice too sometimes, he can even help on mountain stages. But here he actually does what Bergwerk doesn't, he focuses on one thing, in a kind of special way, sure, but he seems to be getting it. Good. A bit of diversity would be good though, especially with a sprinter like that.

EXOCDS: 4 stages, still in the fight for green and yellow. Not bad. 8. Started of badly, by doing a misguided attempt at Ticos tactic. Instead of simply riding for a very possible stage win in the back, try to block the escape in front. Which in the end didn't work, and he ended up with lots of egg on his face. Next like the other GC guys by trying to give away the responsability to everybody else, managed to lose time to Tdot. AFter that, good concentrated racing, the start though was rather bad.

Hueso: 4. Too passive. When he does something it's not bad, the problem is he often does nothing, not sure if he's even online.

Racerfriend: 7 2 stages, one escape, one mountain stage. Active in escapes, in the mountains there too, nothing bad so far. All good

Samurais: 7: Good stage win with the classic, good nose by following escartinos the day after and here is yellow. Depending on how the rest is ridden now.... he could end up fairly high. Ramirez would have no problem pulling him up if there is any stage win chance... unlikely scenario though, yep. Missed lots of the first week, weak nerves too, but the riding when there generally was good.

Alex: 6 Active for red, but that seems over. He probably would be better off forgetting red and trying for stages, even if the material for escapes definetly isn't perfect. Then often longer off times, and not convincing with Sastre. The guy is even behind Ramirez....

fireball: 3 Horrible team, often off.

TheChosenONe: 1 stage, announces when he'll be offline, active escaper. 7+. Not a team for anything else than escapes, probably a sprinter or climber or a better classic would be good, but he rides well and is nice too it seems. Good tour.


Generally: Offlineism by the 2 teams with the best climbers.... so the 2 mountain stages where completely different than expected and kind of fun too, just a big missed opportunity for those 2 managers. But kind of fits with the whole tour, where nobody seems to want to take responsibility for anything. Risk riding a bit and not winning? NOOOOO, rather don't ride at all and have 0 chances to win. Everybody shocked when ultraoffliner AUDOOOOOOOOOO won his stage... but actually that's what a majority of people seem to be aiming for. Winining while investing as little as possible. Doesn't matter that 10% more investement wouldn't bring any rider under reg... it's the principle, take no responsibility, hope others do the work and win. Well, Racerfriends, APE and theChosenOne profited from it so far, thanks. And that is good in some respects, a tour where no escape ever has a chance is no good too... but a bit more taking of "responsibilities", or since that's a kind of strange word, let's say, work to create your chances wouldn't hurt either. Makes for an interesting race too.

[bergwerk cycling]

Team votes?
What does the numbers mean 1 for bad ... 10 for best?
Scoolnotes in Switzerland or what is it?
Never seen such "numberierung"

[Robyklebt]

1-10, 6 is "genügend", everything above good.

No, Switzerland is 1-6, with 6 being the best, as is logic, 4"genügend" (as in Germany, but because we're smarter there's only 3 "genügend" numbers, not 4 as in your strange place). 1-10 btw is a fairly standard thing though... .

[Robyklebt]

Interesting stage. Ape not really happy though, Ramirez siebed on the last hill, otherwise with chances for the stage, bah. Plus Trapani loses 1'30" because he didn't ride 1 km in that mountain, to get the EXO or Tdot express.Grrr.

GC complicated to predict, energy is a bit of a mystery to me. That of the others, know mine..We'll see. Lots of riding for chances today btw... was more fun when you just let the apes go

Good work in the Gruppetto, well, it really was forbidden to work there it seems, Heidfeld told me so... Anyway, the ones who worked, got into the group (after letting them suffer a while, since they weren't nice to Gong in front), the ones who slept... OUT. And that's all sprinters over 90 except one, the one with the worst team too. Paris will be fun...

[Robyklebt]

Tour finished!

Yes, 2 days ago, people already forgot everything, Ape still writes a last post:

First about his own team...3 stage wins, good. 2 more than was the goal. The team.... Alighieri out Touré in, didn't really work. Alighieri could have fought for the win on a few occasions. But, still not unhappy with that decision. Touré was a good extra loader, Alighieri would have wanted to be loaded. And a good man for tempo in the Gruppetto uphill, to save Yamada. So while Alighieri would have very very likely had more success than Touré, Touré helped the team more, by helping Olteanu, Gong, Legrand mostly, those 3 would have been unfitter with Alighieri in the team. So... think the line up was good finally.
The race... happy with the 3 stages, not completely happy with Ramirez, he had 3 good chances for the stage, the first one, he didn't even attack or follow escartinos, as he should have. Second one dropped at the last mountain km, grrr.... third one, Hill too strong, resp. too far ahead. But ok. GC I wasn't going to play a role anyway, 8th... actually by reacting correctly on the escartinos day I could maybe have had an outside chance for the podium... but ok, didn't do the right thing (and who knows who was following anyway)

The GC... IMO bad riding all around. Not only EXO who with 2 huge mistakes 'lost' the Tour. Ok, first one was a group effort, not only his fault, but BW, Heidfeld, Ede, even Mbak too. Tdot himself? Not really convincing either. But the fight, Christiantoko/Coto/Manic was a result of strange riding anyway. Heidfeld and Ede mostly offline, especially tragic in the case of Heidfeld who only 2 months ago declared himself the guru of the fight for fairness, against offliners...long live hypocrisy. The duo Heidfeld Ede, could have changed the whole tour in their favor, or maybe in somebody elses. But offline half the time... On/off opened up the race for others, BW, Mbak, escartinos, PEtit Singe in an other way, but finally only escartinos took this chance. The rest of us didn't. With EXO and Tdot so close together, it was clear they couldn't chase early climbers groups too hard, that would open them up to a counter by the other guy later, but as I said finally only escartinos did the right thing. But anyway, for Ede (thanks to the reg) and Heid (2 climbers, good team) it would have been possible to get into the fight for nr 1, carrying other guys, BW and Mbak into it... but offline. Which in the end makes it a bad tour for both. The rest then failed to take the opportunity given by the 2 offliners.

Anyway, 3 wins, good, was lucky it was an escape tour, 3 Apes, 2 Racers,1 Chosen, 1 BW, 1 Samurai, 1 Heidfeld... all wins from escapes from far... 50% of the stages if you don't count the TTs.