Sachsen Pavés 10h

[team fl]

Morning morning morning! That's the device of the Sachsen Pavé at 10 o'clock. Just another brick in the road.. hehe. Team FL will participate! Line-up as followed:

x1 Gilles Brass: Schengen engen engen! Dublin?
x2 Ronny Beck: Vaduz Duz Duz! Duz? Triesen Riesen!
x3 Daniel Clavadetscher: Capuns uns uns, wir wir, er/sie/es
x4 Pedro Garrido: Olé é é é é, under my Umbrella... é é é é
x5 Frantz Granvorka: Backrow, row row your boat, gently down the sea.
x6 Tim Hamberger: I am loving it!
x7 Hugo Marxer: Victor tor tor, Nôtre-Dame.
x8 Haruki Murakami: in a wild sheep chase
x9 William deWorde: Speechless

A young Team (except the belgian publisher) with the same goal as usual: Have fun, look cool.

I see a lot of interesting teams at 10h. Looking forward to it

[Potter]

Pssst, nobody should say him that he has to go up earlier. Would be funny !

[Robyklebt]

Very probably here too... not 100% convinced by the parcours, TTT on the last day, pah... not 100% convinced I want to ride another Tour immediately after Down under, but for the moment I'm inscribed. The expected riders probably.

[team fl]

Wow, cool first stage. Lots of action thanks to Rastafari and the best finish imaginable: Gilles wins

Also Bagu and Stakanov with time advantage now for the overall GC. The tour will be interesting despite my doubts when I saw Stephen Roche's Team.

Tomorrow will be hard. I guess I have to control a bit, so do some power-math for the second semistage (?). But I am sure that there will be action again...

[Robyklebt]

GC, for me Roche is not actually a clear favorite. He has the mass of riders, yes, but with our RSF helping system that's not necessarily what counts. 9 riders with this weather means 3 leaders + 6 helpers, or 2 leaders and 4 helpers and 3 free guys, or 1 leader 2 helpers 6 free guys, or something in between like 1 leader, 2 helpers, 3 semi leaders with one helper each... or something like that. His biggest advantages could actually be the monsterreg of 2 of his Roches. Much more important than having 4 riders over 80 pavé. His nr 4 in the end will not be worth more than a 75 as a nr 3. The longer the stage goes, the weaker the less valuable he is. So basically he has 3 80s vs Bagu 85+ 77+76 etc. Another weakness of Roche is: The lack of flat power, he has the pavé, but not the flat. So if Bagu goes... hard to get him back. Stakanov. Etc. So don't see Roche as the clear nr 1 favorite at all. Even if he has one good advantage. Lots of reg with some riders. So a pure support rider like his nr 4 (unless he makes him 3 one day) will restart the next day at 1000, some other nr 4s with less reg maybe won't.

TTT: Here Roche maybe nominally has the best team. And some guys with reg that shoudl be fitter than others. But, a guy like Richard Roche? 79 TT 82 pavé? Won't he just take apart the team? I think I wouldn't be able to control such a team, maybe Roche can... But teams many of the other teams will be so much easier to control.. 5 guys with as much energy as possible. Not easy either it will be a 5 man TTT basically, you really need 5 fittish guys, And not drop any of those, 0 drops. In that TTT lots can happen. Roche theoretically has an advantage in the TTT, practically... we'll see.

So, Roche winning? Possible, but actually others IMO have as many chances. And if you include experience, Roche is more of an outsider than a favorite.

Bagu: Strongest pavé rider, strongest flat rider. Once gone, hard to get back. His disadvantage: Reg. But one of his main support riders with 55 reg and 88 flat can help there.
Stakanov: Right now I say, minimal, really minimal chances. Reason: Team seems completely dead. Poor guy had to ride a tour with Warriors "I have the best sprinter but he's not fit and not in form and I have no chance you work first I attack later or maybe help....ups, I won, what a surprise"...Otherwise... Stakanov second best on pavé and in flat. PLUS reg. But his team could be a concern, especially for the TTT
Ape, FL, Heidfeld, 3 fairly compact teams that lack the superleader, that doesn't make then complete outsiders though. In the end they have Roche light teams, again, the 4th 80+ of Roche isn't worth more than the third FL 76. Unless he keeps 4 halt fit instead of 3 fit until going to 2 then to 1. And advantage that unlike for Roche they won't be talked into tempo nonstop. Plus more compact TTT teams which can be a very big advantage, as can the experience.
Then even some isolated leader, Paredes, Hansa, Mjölnir, Demuths anti-Qian.
Rastafari... not sure about experience, Flucht, not experienced enough.

But basically it's open I think. If I had to say one name now I'd say Bagu, after all Ritchie has always been good in TTTs as well. But if Bagu doesn't win it wouldn't be a surprise either, it's open (not sure everybody actually understands the concept of no predetermined winner) let's give Bagu 20% chances to win it without going into deeper apeulations. The rest a bit below.

Today: Gambling Ape... no single leader, 3 at the same level... which of course almost never works, but who cares.... so they all get helpers when necessary, once the helpers are gone, each one on his own. Only 4 left in front, Fouché helping Olimpiu and Bakhtiyar, changing back and forth... Not Iordan, Iordan was the first to get one less as well. But while I'm sure he'll follow Bagu on a 1... what for? Place nr 4 it would have been. I can even sprint from 500 with a wheel, let's say STakanov and very likely won't get higher as 3... plus no danger of being dropped earlier... not a leader. But not helping either, after all who knows, maybe even a bit weakened he can follow? Answer was: No. Bah...Bakhtiyar... not sure he follows, otherwise he would have been leader... but just don't know, so he get's some help and let's gamble. Olimpiu, the same, in his case too little flat, not sure he follows.. let's give him some help and gamble.. Gilles followed, ah well... maybe if I give him the support riders he does too.. Finally all 3 in the back, not really shocking, but as an optimist tried the other way, instead of concentrating on one, which would all three had chances to follow (actually thought Olimpiu had the least, but seeing Gilles follow, mmhh)

Tomorrow.. no idea how that will play out actually.

[Zentaron]

The ape was afraid of the power of Marzahn.

[Robyklebt]

?

Yesterday? Pff, Conti form 100 planned, 99 actual, pah, not afraid, but timing, that's all.

[Robyklebt]

Oh... Sachsen 14h you mean...

No, simply 14h this week doesn't work... would have missed the start today and probably wed too...

[Robyklebt]

Not my day... Iordan too strong at first, dropped the Ritchies, so always somebody in tempo few seconds behind me... last pavé, again, there I hoped that the second one stays, the first one who had already ridden dropped a bit further.. .but no... attacked anyway, there win chances were done anyway I thought... then Ritchie attacks, Olimpiu still in the wheel (from before, wanted to change it), Olimpiu in front... FL not riding, not sure why, we would have gotten more advantage for sure, and then there was no reason to attack 67-61-61, let's take our chances and let's get some time on the rest... ok, Garrido not the GC man for FL, true, but another option. Most of the stages aren't that hard anymore, todays first one the hardest IMO. More time on Bagu and the Roches... Garrido not chanceless against Boateng and Olimpiu in the coming days, on the contrary. But ok, was probably helping at times, weakened, then lost lots in the second stage... but I would have tried anyway. Then ok, he doesn't, Heidfeld out again, Olimpiu still in, attack in that case, Boateng back in and blocks.. while Garrido couldn't follow. aaaaaaaaaaaargh. Second aargh Iordan dropped, no fighting, not the best option obviously.. bah.

Second stage then was mostly damage control, early attempt to get some time on Bagu or at least make him work, weaken his team further, more than he already did with his attack, FL didn't want to, of course it's weakening our teams too, but 1 rider each a few km, then see how it develops.. .why not? He'll use one rider too who will lose double our energy.. But ok, so no.

Then waiting for the 4444, safety tempo, afraid Olimpiu drops, he didn't, good...

GC now, IMO my chances dropped a lot today, Iordan on stage 2 was bad, 14" to everybody, more to others...Olimpiu good, but that one grr stage with the 5****** scares him..plus in the end not enough time won in stage 2, much more was possible. Otherwise mostly the same, Bagu, Brasse, the Roches, Boateng, Olimpiu now for me, still with chances, but IMO less than 24h ago.. . Grrr, not happy at all.

[team fl]

Wow, what a day. I was pretty sure I will lose Pink already on the first semistage, but Garrido the hero could save it, thanks to fortunate events during the race. Sadly, Bagu could gain some seconds against Gilles, so it was clear that the second semistage would be Bagu's take over.

Nevertheless, until now i find this Tour very interesting. Lots of action, lots of surprising events, and already a group that could get through until the finish. I am of course also very happy about two stage wins and Gilles in the white jersey.

The GC ist still very open, altough Bagu is now the hunted one. For me Stephen Roche the disappointment of the tour so far. But who knows what will happen during the next stages...

[Robyklebt]

Not much changed, Stakanovs chances obviously increasing, mostly because we were standing the whole day, and his team that probably was the weakest energy wise could recover a bit. For the rest, same thing that we can expect tomorrow. Nobody moving. Saving energy to save energy for the first half stage before the TTT. Which I will win of course Ok, maybe not, but I am a TTT team after all

[team fl]

Yes, today was EXO's day. Stage win, Pink, and lots of time to recover for his team. But Bagu still in a good Position. Roche obviously too unexperience as you, Roby, mentioned before. I really wonder what happens tomorrow. Perhaps a good stage for Roche to ride a hard race... Or Ruhrgebiet again?

For Team FL it was okay today, not really good, not bad. No stage ambitions, already have two victories. Braas still on the Podium, perhaps he can keep it. Important is the youth jersey for him. Sadly, deWorde fell behind in the end. Tomorrow again a helping day for our granpa in the team.

[Robyklebt]

What happens tomorrow?

Basically the same as today, no? Mikado in the peloton. Hopefully tomorrow not only Ruhr and Hansa go, but Demuth, Flucht etc. too.

They should have no problem winning the stage. Unless Exo gets sucked into pink should work talk. Otherwise, no interest for him to catch anybody, get fitter and stay fit for the last day. Ritchie? The same. FL? The same. Heidfeld, the same. Ape, the same. Roche? He should do the same, there is nothing really to gain for him tomorrow. But don't know if he will. Then there is Rastafari who will maybe ride for Dube, at least all the guys that think they can drop him on the 5 hope he will. Rastafari is basically the main hope for those behind with chances to win that there is a sprint or something like that in the end. So Garrido (+De Worde too if Dube not dropped) Olimpiu, Rada and Boateng and maybe the Rochessprinters all have to hope that Rasta works.. Roche too, but he actually might, unlike the other 3... we all know none of us 3 will ride a single meter until very late, unless forced to ride by a GC attack..

So not really wondering what will happen... just waiting for friday... 1: Does Olimpiu survive the 5***** and -5*****? Then of course he'll win the Tour in the TTT.

[team fl]

It went as expected.

So today is the big day when everything can happen. Does a team try something for the GC in the first semistage? Who gets the mountainpoints-jersey? Can Gilles stay on the Podium after the TTT?

My final overal GC looks sth. like this:

1. Bagu
2. Stakanov
3. Duculescu
4. Boateng
5. Braas

But you never know. Also the fight for Green might be interesting today. Garrido still with chances while Bagu (who's wearing it) or Boateng are also in good positions. White should be clear (hopefully) and stay with Braas. The Blue mountin-thingy goes to the one who wants it or a group in escape. I don't expect a big fight about it. Team classement should be done for Demuth.

[Robyklebt]

Wrong... both you and me.

I thought I would win actually. When I make jokes like "winning the TTT and the Tour" sometimes I'm only halfjoking.... just don't want to say I think I win it openly so that you won't be able to tell me I'm wrong.

The ape thought: After day 2. Fucking idiot Roby (when things don't work, the Ape blames Roby, after all he bought losers like Iordan), GC lost. (wanted to have Iordan as leader, his last time as leader) Morning of day 3: I can win this with Olimpiu. After the race: Excellent recovery by Qian and co (started with only Uzielli, Feng and Haryono at 1000) 40% I win this. AFter day 4: All fit, 70% I win. After the half stage this morning; 90% I win. And didn't. Which is more than ok, because even I wouldn't have like the way of winning. Doing nothing at all for 3 days. And not even necessary to do nothing. It wasn't necessary to have 9 riders fit this morning, it wasn't necessary to do nothing this morning to keep 9 fairly fit. But that's the way it was played here, boring and not the best pavé tactic, despite the absolute conviction of many that not riding on pavé is the nonplus ultra. I can do that too, and win ... I thought, was wrong about the winning part. Roche winning? IMO ok... Ritchie and Exo would have been more deserved, the only 2 that rode and had more in their head that "don't ride, don't ride". Ape, FL, Heidfeld wouldn't have been more deserved than Roche, maybe less, actually for sure less. Roche at least tried once or twice, ok, the way of trying wasn't so fantastic, but he did more than: do nothing. Which is what I did.

Simply never thought Roche would manage to keep his team from exploding. I rode a fairly good TTT I think, a bit too conservative on the first pavé, but even with more risk never get Roche. Really was convinced a 81-79 or something like that pavé-TT combination would be too much in one rider.

Before the morning race I thought if I don't win, Ritchie does. Small chances for Heid and FL, even smaller for Roche and Exo,
After the race in the morning.. Bagu with the attack, Jylderup Tempo after being siebed, ok, very hard to impossible for Ritchie. Thought I'd win it for sure, or almost... Roche? Ok, just didn't think about him anymore. Knew there were going to be fairly big differences, that I was far from safe from him, but just didn't think about him.. It will be the Ape, small chances for FL. Who simply has a weaker TTT team than I have. Then after the first pavé section, oh oh.. Roche, no chance. But no problem with not winning it, IMO was a badly ridden tour generally, mentioned the exceptions already. And since I'm not one of them, not winning is no problem. Got money, all is fine.

[team fl]

Just one word (or a little more) to ritchie und EXO being more active than the rest: Well, very difficult with 84 an 85 Pavé, 89 and 91 flat, especially when you see the rest of ritchie's team and the flat skills of Team FL (and Petit Singe, except that Baktisomething). For every rider I have it would have been just plain stupid to attack. No problem to catch them and leave them behind the next possibility. Too weak in the flat. And besides that: I won two stages, the first ones. Of coures I don't risk anything in the GC for another stage win or something else when knowing about the other's flatpower (ritchie, EXO), also knowing that after Stage 2, Garrido had around 500 power and wasn't fit for the next two stages.

Knowing that and being realistic, I decided that I will defend the youth jersey and do nothing to stop stage hunters who are not a risk for the GC. I am very surprised about the TTT and my result in it (perhaps because I am not really experienced in that), but my guess would have also been you or Roche.

But I agree with you, I rode passivly. Nevertheless I think there were not many chances to ride more actively (besides escaping at KM 1) while not jeopardizing myself.

Finally, I have to say that I liked the tour, although it was ridden very tactically. And of course, the money is also ok

[Robyklebt]

Disagree with tactically actually.. doing nothing is not really tactical, if it's just the general setting.. which it was for both of us. So disagree with a tactical Tour, completely. It was a waiting tour, that's it. Who talks about attacks, anyway.. .siebs exist too

[team fl]

Perhaps I used the wrong word to describe it, but I meant the same shit... ähm thing.

[Robyklebt]

What?

[team fl]

That!