Andes 2013 afternoon

[Recien Nacido]

Bin raus hier fahre früh .

[Robyklebt]

Poor Earlylings!

[luques]

7 in the morning!

We can't lose against them

[luques]

OK!

Luques shows with the following line-up:

Vasilyuk - The boy for the white jersey!
Costa - Classic man, to help Andrey
Tajibayuly - The next great classic, but to Andes a good helper for hilly stages
Blacklow - Good everywhere, on hilly on flat on downhill
Ojamaa - Monster reg, hard worker
Kamizuru - To try nice attacks or close the end
Durmonov - The sprinter for flat stages, or a good helper in other cases
Bulloch - Like Kamizuru
Vilen - Monster Flat and DH let's see how to use him in Andes

[luques]

First stage:

The escape goes! Hard stage, Singe only controls the gap for the gc, no one really thinks to win (or probably all are waiting for the TTT) so the escape arrives. We controlled, probably overworked but we didn't want some idiotic gc attacks on flat to happen Tomorrow flat day, good day for the sprinters, Luques will be apper or sitted!

[Robyklebt]

10 team group, so in the end ok.
Too bad neither Alk nor Bergwerk showed up in the end. Or L. But the group looks interesting anyway. Many teams with chances:

Vainikka (Black Stars) 89-60-48-50-54, 35 reg. Has Sahlmann 85-58-75-50-55 with 41 reg as a helper. Strength: Mountain skill and helper clearly, weakness: lack of downhill and lack of reg, including Sahlmann. Team behind those too is ok, one classic at 72, then in the high 60es.
Cazzorla (Abarth) 89-54-71-48-50, 56 reg. Strength clearly the mountain skill. His big advantage to Vainikka is the downhill. His weakness the team, 2 classics, 73+71 then nothing really.
Groselj (Petit Singe) 86-60-77-50-52, 65 reg. 2 climbers for help, Momyshuly 85-53-78-49-48, 36 reg, but 35 years old, and Kopelyan 82-52-78-49-47, 46 reg, but 23 could get stronger. Strength the team, only one rider under 60 mountain. And pretty good TTT team compared to the others. Weakness, the lower mountain skill than Vainikka and Cazzorla.
Rossic (nessundorma) 86-58-78-60-49, 59 reg. Team, 2 72 classics, then the rest all still above 60. STrength: The team. Weakness: The lack of a second climber
Nguyen (St Etienne) 85-55-71-50-51, 50 reg. One classic with 70, then many 60+, only one guy under 60. Best TTT team of the GC teams probably. Strenght: TTT... Weakness, the lack of a second climber
Vasilyuk (Luques) 84-57-74-54-46, 62 reg. Team: 71 mountain, then 63. So not too strong. TTT nothing special either. Strength, youth, he could train. Weakness the team and lack of second climber

Basically see these 6 with chances.. bigger or smaller ones of course. Basically Vainikka and Cazzorla above the rest, Groselj with a team that could, should allow attacks, the 3 others that hope to profit from this somehow.
Bierbauch and Quickstep with climber too, Bierbauch 84, but the team isn't there and he could lack experience, so he's not in the list. Quickstep: Sope the only 80-70 in the race, still don't think that's enough to really play a role in the GC. Even though he has a second 80+.
The 2 remaining teams should play no role whatsoever in GC. goodyear may 71 in mountain, will be chasing the flat or flatter stages. RiboSoma with 78 max similar.

Stage 1 as Luques said, attack, through since nobody wanted to ride for the stage, first ape in the mountain, then Luques and Abarth controlled the stage in the back. Mostly everybody was saving energy for the TTT tomorrow

[luques]

Stage 2 with the sitter!

Didn't know much what happen actually, just start the app to say hello to everybody and switch off

Tomorrow will be the first GC Test, long TTT, we are not favo and as usual we do pretty bad on TT or TTT. But after tomorrow someone will have to move finally...

At a first look i see Singe favo for the final gc, while Abarth and Black can get some mountain stages with their 89 mountain.

The others will just take to get some stage win with escapes, but difficult they can give some real problems to those 3.

P.S. Singe siebs will be very hard for all the other teams who lack a bit of helpers (Probably only Black can have some minor problems)

[Robyklebt]

Happy with the TTT obviously. 1'19" over Abarth is good I think. During the race at one point though thought it could be even more... but he defended himself well there. Don't think I rode such a good TTT the way it went after all... should have let Zibi do more a bit earlier, not only the second last km, where he gained 6" over Abarth, instead of the 3" before. Took out the weakest guys there, just left Gaspard, Abel and I think Bochini in with low... before that everybody riding. Then last km overdid it and tried Zibi alone, too much for Rakhat. 3" lost on the km, probably 8-9" to if I had just left it as it was. A setting I should have done a few km earlier, But 1'19" over Cazzorla is still good obviously. While his team is weaker, I don't think it's a lot weaker. But ok, the downhill really helped me, there I always gained more on him. So... before the race=very happy with 1'19". A minute too is ok. After... think more was possible. Black star lost 2'35", being offline didn't help him obviously. He would have lost time when online too, but less. If we see how Luques did... pretty clear that neither Abarth nor I really did it perfectly, because probably Black star should be around Luques.

Now 1'19" to defend to Cazzorla, who's the biggest threat for the moment... don't really feel too sure yet, bonifications and with 89 vs 86 he'll gain some seconds on every mountain top finish. Just checked, there aren't as many as I thought, looks much better than expected somehow. And downhill Monsieur Groselj is pretty good, should often be able to gain time back there. Mmmhhh
Black of course now is in kind of trouble, 2'35" is a lot to gain back. Especially with his reg. The rest, IMO St Etienne the loser of the day really. Lack of experience in the TTT, he normally should have won this I think. And have an advantage over everybody. Clearly a problem less for me, so that's another big positive. Luques still there with his Vasilyuk, don't trust him, he always talks about winning... and nessundorma did a good TTT for being offline... much better than black star, and he really shouldn't be THAT much better. Almost 1'46" back, a very nice advantage, but never discount anybody in the Andes. It will be all against the Ape from now on, normally and hopefully at least.

But yep, Ape big winner of the day, although Abarth didn't do badly either. If he can find cooperation from Black star, a deal time against stages, times for both, stages for black, 1'19" isn't much. We'll see. Anyway, still a long way to go, Ape happy with the unexpected TTT win, (thought nr 3), so has a stage win in the Andes in 13 too, first goal reached.

[luques]

Even if we took 1min and 41from the leader, we are quite happy with the result, we can't do much more and we are 4th at the end!

We also managed quite well energies, now quite all depends on Singe (go for Rakhat, Groselji or Zhores or Abel or don't know), many downhill finish can be quite important.

I write down some keys for next stages:

1) Rakhat low reg can be a little problem tomorrow, not even sure he can be at full energy on the stage6 (mountain finish). So probably try to close with Zhores and Abel to avoid attacks from the other gc contenders (but also Black-Star won't be in good form with that energies)!

2) Abarth has a bad team, otherwise he could try something tomorrow, but the finish doesn't look good, he will probably gain some time on stage 6 over Singe gaining something like 20'' could reopen the fight, but he needs also some help from black to avoid singe takes boni.

3)Black-Star almost lost today all chances for a gc win, now with his reg would be really difficult next days...

We will try to get the white and would be nice also a place in the top3 which seems more possible after the bad day of Black, but still there is the Singe Armada to defeat. Maybe some escapes too?

[Robyklebt]

Ape dropped Cazzorla! But was caught again. Stupid stupid stupid ape. IT worked PERFECTLY. Except for one thing, ape was either too confident or not enough. Easy race to control, a sieb, worked perfectly too, 9 in front, others less, but still enough helpers but anyway... last mountain, Rakhat siebs, all good, then put Rakhat on help for Tasman.. siebed, 1" behind the nessundormaclassic. Mmhh.. no, waiting too obvious.. let's not wait, maybe he'll catch me. didn't... then when I attacked he was at 2"? 11" after the attack, but by then he had caught the group where the great attack came from. So...blah. Instead of 30" or so seconds, which would have meant Time gain in the GC over Cazzorla, then I manage to go over the mountain, he caught me and in the end nothing changes between the 2 of us. Which is bad, since today was clearly a pro Ape stage.. probably the only time in the tour I can drop Cazzorla, he'll be fit from now on I think. Probably the time gain wouldn't have been huge... but likely 10-20" including some bonifications.. but no, stupid ape attacked with a classic in tempo 2 km back. brrr.
Lost lots of time for white too, this isn't tragic, not really planning to fight for that one, but didn't think I'd lose as much as I did today. Well, the same fault, the attack after waiting for Thorulf and Zhores probably arrives with Cazzorla.
But finally not such a bad day either, IMO there was the possibility for the others to gain back time. I was obviously following Cazzorla there... not sure who he followed, but if he followed me... the others could have gone and gained 30 or so seconds on Groselj. Definetly a start in the bid to come back. Which would have helped Cazzorla more than me, because then I probably would have to pay more attention to others too in the future.. right now it's only him, and didn't change. So, fine with me that Luques didn't attack, although in a way would have been more fun.

[luques]

YUUUUUUUUUU!
Great result for Andrey, got back 1' and didn't expect this, but he lost some time against gc opponents so can't be full happy today
Now considered the training we can look in a more positive way to the white, also because Singe will have to care about the yellow.

Today was a good day for Singe and all worked perfectly for him till the moment of the attack, Cazzorla not following could have been a big big risk, but in the end still he got a good result looking at gc.

Tomorrow will much look as a transition stage, no team will move probably an escape will win?

Stage 6, on the other hand, looks good for pure climbers and so for Abarth, don't know what singe is going to do there to contain him, probably some siebs in order to destroy his helpers; but with a 9 finish looks something for Abarth/BlackStar.

As usual we will try to profit from other mistakes and take the opportunities we will find on the street

[luques]

Flat stage and another escape win. Not much action, Abarth took the victory but tomorrow he risk to see eliminated one guy.

Tomorrow.... long stage 250km, the road starts to go up again, the end looks good for pure climbers but singe can try some siebs before to weaken them, will be interesting to see what Rakhat and Groselji will do.

The team obviously it's all fit and ready to support Andrey, we hope to get some more secs tomorrow.

[Robyklebt]

6" lost, so only 1'12" to defend. Never was 1'19" it seems, forgot about a bonus second for Cazzorla on stage 2. Today all ok though. 6" is not too much, all in order. Could have been less if I had blocked the 6 with Groselj, but I never expected Cazzorla to attack there. IMO a good decision to attack there, think he would have gained less if he just goes on 9, with Groselj going too. But ok, 6" or 5" for the moment seems ok, happy he didn't win, 4", happy I got third. Still not happy with the end of the TTT and especially with the attack 2 days ago... Could have won some time there dammit. Now it's just defending. On a positive but also negative note, today Abarth lost 2 helpers. Which for me isn't really bad, BUT in a way it is. Those guys would have been kicked for sure in 2 days. And would have been a nice insurance for Zibi. MOre weaker guys behind, very likely he ends up in the second or third weakest group, and so is saved, even if he comes in after the time limit. Now the weakest group is already gone and Coolboy is much closer to the last group and with that in danger of missing the time limit. Not too positive really. Didn't think they would be kicked today, and actually they were pretty safe. But should have ridden a few km red, then.. all ok. IN the end though it was Abarth and Black themselves who kicked those guys, they went fast after the pre hill, I'd have been ok going slower, but...So ok, -2 Abarths, -1 Black, not the worst thing that can happen to me, even if I worry more about Coolboy now. He really wants to reach La Paz...

[luques]

All about 19'' today!

for 19'' the group was out, 1'19'' was the supposed advantage of Groselji.

Andrey takes other 15'' on the white, if we can close the discussion this week, on next week we will focus on gc.

But bad news came for the Luques team, he won't be here for 3 days in a row -.-, hope in some funny sitters

[Robyklebt]

3" back for the ape today, no attack, nobody doing anything, so though I put Groselj in green tempo for the intermediate... 2 others joined, nobody sprinted, ape gets 3" GC wise the most important thing today. Later Quick went with too, goodyear followed, obviously nobody had an interest to follow.... so they went through and won. Black then attacked yellow for a day... St Etienne defended it, for me he could have had it with 5' or so. Luques tried an attack, then Sope went and gained 9" in the end. That was all really.
Tomorrow the first of 2 hard stages in a row. The first highlight of the tour, the ape hopes he will be up to the task. The team will, those guys are good, we have doubts about the manager though.

[luques]

Uhmmmmmmm

Today Luques mood:

I don’t want to be that guy
Look you in the face and lie
But someone has to say it first
Even if the words may hurt
I only love you
I only love you
I only love you, only love you
Only love you when I’m drunk

Anyway, Abarth said that he is not favo and singe won the tour, Black Star that he goes only for stages he is not a favo for gc, nessun is sleeping.

Taking this into account it turns that we are kind of favo, so today we tried the attack with Andrey. Tomorrow we look for the white, we hope

Than the whillow can be an option too but for the moment i prefer a pillow.

P.S. I am finding some incredible sitters for the next week (Tuesday/Wednesday), pretty sure the ape will be happy!

[Pirkio]

Andes 2013 = Duffy duck tour

[Robyklebt]

Primoz!
Didn't expect that at all... but I'll take it. +4" in GC again.
Not sure what to expect tomorrow though. We'll see

[Robyklebt]

Primoz again!
Good attack by Black star I thought... but after gaining 1'30" on Tasman riding in the back, somehow we got him back. Kopelyan the downhill, then Rakhat the next hill and downhill. There Sahlman was too weak for Ilkka, so Sahlman rode alone. Probably would have made sense to keep Ilkka in in the flatter parts. So then when Primoz took over we weren't far back. Cazzorla tried another sieb, today the attack would have been correct IMO. Lower energy, not 1000 like yesterday before the last mountain, something under 800, attacks costs less, go at 12, IMO enough to keep the advantage. At 7 he won 4 seconds that Groselj easily recovered. For the sieb probably the hill before would have been an option, siebing Rakhat and then either I go in tempo with Groselj or when he attacks when Rakhat is at 20" I'm 30" back already.. which I won't get back either. But ok like this for me, after all it's the Camino de la Muerte stage, apes continue the Robyklebt tradition and win that one. Think won it each time it was in. Although not sure.. really not in since 08? 06 Tismeanu, 08 Gygax, not in since then? Or maybe 09 and some other bad guy won? Grr. Anyway, obviously very happy to have survived this stage.. with the rest day everybody could spend more, including me of course, plus ideal terrain for attacks from far. Cazzorla not folloing Vainikka.. .at first thought was the right decision from Cazzorla. Let Vainikka come back a bit in GC, let me have to worry about a second guy. But in retrospect Black was right, Cazzorla there and Vainikka wins the stage, Cazzorla wins time. How much.. don't know, would have ridden much harder obviously. Would never have become 1'30", but then would have won back much less. But didn0't happpen, so now 1'23" over Cazzorla. The ape feels pretty safe about the seconds picking, don't think Cazzorla can win it like that anymore. The bigger time wins of course still possible, and since now he'll have to try that... still lots of dangers waiting.

Rest day coming, good.
The apes: All there, good, that was the goal. From now on losing one or the other is ok. So far very happy with 3 helpers, Zibi, great TTT, too strong in the last km, still great. He didn't ride a lot since the TdF, almost nothing actually, but here he showed what he is capable of. Narcisse rode uncountable km in the last 2 days, perfect too. And Rakhat very nice too, after not trusting him on stage 3, not letting him ride for himself, sacrificing himself for Tasman, he showed his class in the last 2 days when he was nr 2 in the team. STill third in GC despite the 1'+ loss in stage 4. The rest... mostly loading so far. Groselj of course gets a good vote too, but his ill timed attack on stage 4, where we could have won time on Cazzorla still hurts. But ok, winning time there might have made Cazzorla more desperate for time gains today and make him ride more offensively, which of course would have hurt Groselj today...

Rest:
Bierbauch: Don't waste energy!!! At first you were always the first to ride in the back to come back, Most of the time not necessary since others want to come back too. Now started the attacks to save riders. Those are HORRIBLE. All you do is put them at risk. Of course you can't know for sure how I'll ride the first mountains today, but if I ride them hard, your 2 guys are still out of the race, even with the safety attacks. Even more. They'll have x less energy than if they had done nothing. Attacks for the stage, ok, but like the first one today. NOOOO. Second one was kind of cool though. Too early probably, the flat thing there didn't help your guys at all. And probably riding green better in the hill, come back to the escape slowly, later drop them.
Black: Off TTT didn't help, yesterday off in the end, safe win not taken, today very nice attack, that in the end didn't work.. as I said, thought was through for sure. Problems for Groselj.. still could do that.. but his big problem there is the lack of reg. 3 stages so far.
Abarth: Likes to complain..And often didn't seem to want to keep his riders in the race, hoping others would do the job. Ok, most of them would have gone yesterday and today anyway, still, safe them for a few days more? Yesterday IMO very good, today more could have been done, even without following Black. One stage so far, none for Cazzorla though
Luques: white fanatic, finally has it. Will keep it. 0 stages, will need to attack for that now. Maybe risk losing a helper? Maybe risk not having much help for Vasilyuk. Who should be safe anyway.
St Etienne: PRetty happy his climber is back.. he has a team that can make me suffer with attacks, weaken my weak classic fraction. But with Nguyen at almost 5' I feel pretty safe. Still, he is one of the guys that can and should attack with his weaker classics army. For stages. Strong riding for Witschge so far, although IMO today Witschge was the wrong guy to send ahead. Garmeier with his downhill and 70 mountain, the 2 other guys with downhill. First the downhill, second further back in the GC. If Garmeier goes I might not even ride on the camino de la Muerte, stage for him is ok. Yellow not the slightest danger. Witschge... he is no GC danger either, but still didn't want to have him even the slightest chance to get yellow back even if only for a day... ok, I could have let him even more time, but played it safe. With guys further back.. 20'? But ok, still hard to get it. But nothing to lose, worth trying. 1 stage with that Witschge
Quickstep: the guy that risks things to get stages, got one. Good. Don't like this Sope with his constant attacks though, grr. But good riding for the most part. TTT not, start not giving all, then speed up. But since then very offensive, which is good.
nessundorma: 5th in GC while being off almost every day. he like St Etienne would have the team to make me suffer. And that Rossic is only 3' back, so he would be a bigger danger. But since he seems to be off it seem the chances that he is kicked are bigger than that he makes me any trouble.
RiboSOma: Good good fight for red. I doubt it will be enough ,but who knows. It could be enough actually. Stages, twice second. Only 2 riders left, but almost always online, good addition to the afternoon so far.
goodyear: Off too much now. Started of online, then more and more off. A second place too.

Stages:
Ape 3
Black 3
Abarth 1
St Etienne 1
Quickstep 1

[luques]

Sitters found.
Sorry for the low presence.
See you on Thursday!

[luques]

Victoryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy! Thanks FL!

Great Deidara (anyway Singe Deidara name is an abbreviation for Deidarabocchi (Daidarabotchi) some mythological creatures! Anyway not important as i didn't chose the name. Mihkel is just fantastic!

Great day! Fantastic day!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2GmnhX0sao

After Alques and FLuques, tomorrow simple Luques will come back

[luques]

Good stage after all. Gained some time against other GC opponents. Now there are Sope and Rakhat that we can beat and reach the TOP5!

Giusyanna gained back 6'', if tomorrow could gain some others back could be an interesting finale.

And now some poetry, to inspire those who will have to try a long attack to win...

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss

Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And—which is more—you'll be a Man

[Robyklebt]

The first 3 days after the rest day... 2" lost overall. Started well, the first peruvian stage and Groselj won again. Bochini siebed the offliner Ilkka and all other downhill sausages. Then waited, but Abarth didn't, so Ilkka lost lots and lots of time. Next Cazzorla siebed, in the end all dropped except Groselj. He even stopped the siebing once Groselj was the only one there...Cazzorla wanted a deal, stage for him, but he is still too close, so Groselj had to sprint. And win. Every second counts. +4" again, excellent. Green too, but that one Cazzorla can have, Groselj wants yellow.The day after, easy day with an easy win for Luques sitted by Fluques. Yesterday then, escape, nessundorma who fortunately is more online now goes after it, then with Rossic still not completely out the ape has to chase. Narcisse did that, last hill, very good sieb by Cazzorla leaving Groselj isolated, Luques, not sure what for, and nessundorma mostly then kept the group with Kopelyan and Momyshuly away, in front caught the remainders of the escape right at the top, so again mostly nessundorma kept riding, some help by Black STar. Sprint... Cazzorla-Sahlman-Groselj, 6" lost. Bad sprint by Groselj actually, should not be beaten by Cazzorla in this sprint, but happened.. grrr.

Now 3 days left. Cazzorla at 1'22", Rossic with more TT at 3'52" are the ones that worry me most, both with reg. One with no team really, the other one with a very good one. But more worried about Cazzorla of course.
After yesterdays 6" loss the team now will have a crisis meeting, the tide seems to have turned, we need to find good countermeasures!

[Robyklebt]

Good stage, won by the second best belorussian in the race finally.
The attacker of the day nessundorma, who tried in x ways to get away. But since he wasn't completely out of the GC couldn't let him go. Plus he actually kind of forced me to ride almost according to my plan... small difference wanted to keep Tasman for tempo a few km more... then go with Rakhat. Tempo obviously. In the end was the same thing without Tasman, so Rakhat in tempo earlier. Got back Thorulf, got dropped by a Cazzorlasieb, then got dropped by Thorulf in the chase, got Thorulf back, dropped him.. then kind of hoped that he would come back at the -1 on top. followed by a +2.. and attacks there.. Groselj on following, hoping he does and Cazzorla not. But there then nessundorma kept Thorulf away himself anyway.. so nothing...
Last small hill: Rossic goes, Vasilyuk follows, Kopelyan then chases... Groselj the mountain, at 11 as expected Cazzorla goes, but Groselj gets back Rossic and Vasilyuk... uff. if they went over the mountain with Cazzorla.. problems... still not a huge time loss, but have to work hard to hope to get them back. Like this...all ok. Then basically waiting for attacks, Vasilyuk went, surprisingly Sahlman not following. Then wait for Rossic.. who then went to. then wait for Nguyen, who kept making tempo, was offline. Groselj tried a few attacks, second last km dropped Sahlman and Nguyen, last dropped Cazzorla who had trouble staying on the bike it seemed. So 3rd place, 2 seconds gained, +4 in bonifications. All very nice, we're back at 1'28"

And good to have nessundorma active, good action!

[luques]

Andes ended!

Groselji as predicted won it... Cazzorla took the green jersey, ribosoma the red one and Vasilyuk the beautiful white!

Last stage for Andrey, ahead of Cazzorla and Groselji.

And Luques does his 23th victory in 300 races played!

Thanks to all people that let me win