Pais Vasco 2026 - 15:00

[flockmastoR]

The side program is dead. Thats why WZF RV is starting at Pais Vasco. Rather have some interesting days with a strong team here than boredom and 3-5 teams races in the afternoon races.

Favo check by the Undertaker
**** Jeff Smart, Jamshid Abdurashitov
*** Thorben Gerdes
** Erki Liiv
* others, a surprise rider

10 Teams starting, not brilliant either but promises at least some action and fights. Profil is very mountainous, not the ultra long ultra steep mountains, but nearly all stages with a steep km ending makes it something for the Volta kind of climbers. In our eyes, Jeff Smart therefore the #1 favorite and according to the ITT it looks like Jeff also has decent form.
But there are strong climbers who will fight for stage wins, which might limit the Bonus seconds for Jeff. Anyways 48s that Jeff need to gain on Jamshid might sound a lot, but 3 stages where he can get the bonus seconds on the last km each that would mean a max of 30s possible there + a few seconds for the attack. Reviewed the other stages again, and no really hard final climb increases the chances for Abdurashitov. Maybe he is a little but ahead in chances, can let the stage work for bw. Strong support to defend the far try of the climbers, 81 mountain can still be gotten rid off, but then the question if the other climbers have interest and bw risking the bonus and seconds on the other climbers.

Gerdes then the next on the list, basically because he has great TT and can potentially profit from bw vs swp fight. 85 climber not really the number one horse for a stage win, but can also happen, he has 60 flat and 58 sprint which make him dangerous in the classics leaning stages. Liiv also kind of in the lottery. 87-60 just missing sprint to be really dangerous, he can profit from bw most in terms of stage wins and he is just 30s behind Smart, he might start a surprise attack at some point.

David Lynch unfortunately without any chance imo, ok he wasn't favorit at Tirreno-Adriatico too and ended up winning it, but there we were riding against newbies and still needed a lot of luck to win it. Won't happen against SWP and BW for sure. Lynch with 69 mountain simply not good enough, he can be distanced already before the final decision takes place, doesn't need to be, because dropping him one time is enough to already eliminate him. And for the classic leaning stages, its more Jensen, Hölzel, Whelan, Byrne having the chance there, I fear that Lynch will not be in front anymore. But you never know, if there is a chance to gain time at some point, we will try to go for it, or hang better than at T-A.

[Falcor CC]

Finally tour threads are back!

Nice favo scan, think it's spot on. Maybe would have still given 1 star to Lynch because of his TT advantage and the lack of long climbs in the end. Seems like bw will want tight control to gain as many bonis as possible, so I assume classics might make it far in most stages. If Lynch hangs on the right move, it won't be impossible to gain more time either!

As for us, we signed out Redrocks earlier today. No form, so rather try and have some classics fun. Not expecting too much, since we assume Bergwerk won't give us too much gap after what happened in Tirreno. Still Jensen with some outside chances for stages, will be hard to control though with an out of form Cruz and a lack of 60+MO guys. We won't just sit in the peloton for 6 days though, so you can expect some action from the Falcors!

[flockmastoR]

First stage already over, 14km of very hilly ITT. David Lynch the first to take the yellow jersey, gaining 5s on Jamshid, 53 on Smart, 59 on Gerdes, 1:23 on Liiv and 2:35 on the 87-61 of offline Confidential.

This infor was already used in the favo check. Confidential on paper with a strong team, great climber, 80-70 strong classic but lost a lot already for being off.

Yellow very likely being lost tomorrow already, so we won't put effort in defending it. Already happy to wear it one day, happier to have a stage win already. We were not that sure it will be enough against Jamshid, 5s, yeah.

[bergwerk cycling]

I think you can deduct one or two stars from Smart's rating.

He'll never get as many bonus seconds as needed to beat Jamshid, finishing second or third in the 2-3 little hillstages.

But we'll see soon enough.

[flockmastoR]

Stage 2 cleared the picture. The 2 climbers that we ranked highest show bad form compared to SWP's Huber. Jeff looked in good form to me when I didn't win time on him on the +2 in the ITT, and I simply expected a rider like Jeff to have form.

Apart from the finale, where Liiv won the stage 1s in front of Gerdes and Smart, another second I'm front of Jamshid who captured yellow and now looks like the clear GC contender, the stage offered interesting moves.

First a 3 men group did escape and collect the money on the road. Bergwerk and later NML controlling the gap. The cat 1 mountain close to the finish was then ridden very slowly. We were already concerned a bit to see attacks when SWP attacked with his 84 climber forcing a reaction in the Peloton. Risky move imo. If a 87 climber with form goes into tempo Jamshid might lose contact and then eliminating him could be a common goal shared by all climbers. Ok there is confidential being off. Ok here is JapanNeutron bot known for riding in that situation. Ok SWPs classics are maybe strong enough to get back or hold him close enough, but still risky.

[Nomorelulz]

Interesting but not so interesting tour so far, SWP controls very good and his lineup is really good compared to the rest. Confi with his team could have created more opportunities (if he does it different than yesterday).

Yesterday should have been the day for me to at least try something for GC, but well I didn't. Now GC is over imo. Let's see what the last 2 days bring, Red and Green still very open.

[flockmastoR]

To sum up stage 3-4, escape wins both with WZF rider involvement.

On stage 3 a 8 men group was formed. After we initially hung our riders on bw's guys, we simply attacked with Ehrlich and Petzval. NML and Falcor with 2 riders, Wolfpack Cycling Team and Romoc with just one rider. Nobody interested in the stage from the peloton, so was pretty clear the group will go through. Petzval with the best in GC also allowed a big gap but forced SWP to do some controll at least. Steep climb ~40km before the finish was early seen as a potential decider but group in good harmony first. The mountain values were a bit bad distributed, 3 guys at 61/62, the other 2 with only 57/58 but high flat. As the pullers were done, and the gap melted to about 6 mins, change was needed at the climb and group discussed to make blue tempo there together, at least that was my reading of what was talked. As we endet up being in tempo alone, Petzval went in red, forcing them to join to slow him down and stay, which didn't happen, so he forced the split into the 2 groups. In front the others joined so Petzval also continued. At that point I thought that they will comeback in the flat easily, but looks like the lost too much energy fighting, so they didn't. In the end Wolfpack Cycling Team forgot to sprint (but should have compensated a lot earlier anyways) and Petzval was overconfident to beat Asetov which turned out as a mistake. Still think it had to be very close, but we were still happy with place 2.

In the back, Iwan dropped Lunch at that climb, and we forgot to pull him back with Mandyzcewski, so it was Adams riding to the top losing 45s to the yellow jersey. Hölzel was sent back later, but we still had 28s gap to the peloton once we reached the hilly finish of the stage, 45s lost in the end to Jamshid. I guess when I pull him up with Mandy, he reunites with the peloton and just loses 10ish seconds.

On stage 4 there was a bit a chaotic start, Petzval with the second place and only about 1:30 gap to the yellow was sent to the group which was very big. So SWP chased hard to get him back first, Iwan was already used to catch the group, resulting in a big sieb with Moja then riding some time in front. During the reuniting phase of the group, we switched the following and put Adams on Makepeace who already attacked on km 1. Many more attacked and formed a 12 men group, bergwerk with 3, JapanNeutron with 2, Moja with 2, Falcor with 2, NML, Wolfpack and WZF with one. Adams together with Makepeace the best climber there. bergwerk riding alone most of the time, JapanNeutron riding in the back. So no big harmony there. bergwerk than forced a sieb of the 2nd Japan guy, but his leader was also at 60 mountain, most of the others under 60. At km 135, the gap was at 6 mins again, 2 climbs ahead, decision on how to ride was not discussed at all, I guess bergwerk relied on me to make the decision (sieb or attack), Adams attacked red on the +7 while his puller was still riding, only Makepeace could follow, rest was clear to not have a chance for a comeback. So it was between Makepeace and Adams. Adams plan was to suck the last downhill and see it it is enough to distance Makepeace on the final +8 who has a big sprint skill advantage (+17) but bergwerk proposed the no sprint deal also looking on his 36 reg. So the coin flip was won by Adams, second win. Would be more happy to fight it out, but bergwerk's logic might be right, Adams can be usefull, with another attack maybe not so much.

GC looks decided, but SWP still need to bring it home, one long range attack, well timed can change the situation. Lets see, the stages are still very interesting.