Afternoon Vuelta 14h

[Falcor CC]

Falcor CC starts here. Will update selection here once more riders are confirmed.

Confirmed riders:
-Michael Redrocks
-Magnus Jensen
-Thibault Kerken
-Giacomo Sartore
-Domingo Cruz
-Michael Goris
-Jordan Henkey
-Loïc Callard
-Dave Barlington

[Chemnitz Pro Cycling Team]

Enno! Enno! Enno!

[Tukhtahuaev]

I will most likely start here. Lineup probably something like this:

Murodbek Makhamadzhonov
Crescenzo Poggiolini
Abdukodir Kholdorkhonov
Oleksandr Piskun
Elkhan Baltabekov
Ondrey Nebyla
Yerkin Toktybay
Kensi Taiwia
Zafarmurod Rakhmonaliev

Target is of course to win everything with Makhamadzhonov

[Robyklebt]

Poggiolini wants to be leader, since he said he'll train 3 out of 4 mountain in August!

[Tukhtahuaev]

If he trains to 86 mountain before the Vuelta starts, he'll get his opportunity

[Falcor CC]

No, no... Go back to morning field!

[Robyklebt]

Donks here, not sure why, we're not winning the GC after all.... and since we never won the Vuelta, trying to win it really should be the only reason to start here.

Anyway, the team:

1 A. Dixon: GC top 5 or 10, placement in stages
2 P. Gallego: Developing classic, helper for Dixon, escaper?
3 W. Ganambarr: The star of spring, 60-80 (59-80..) with sprint, our third card for stage wins
4 F. Glück: Flat rider
5 D. Kebede: hill sprinter, stage winning hopes no. 1
6 M. Lanfredini: Last man for Kebede
7 N. Lüthi: Classic, 59 sprint so our second hope for stages
8 P. Tairaoa: Early tempo guy, if ever needed
9 F. Vigni: Flat rider with no reg and only 82 flat right now. TT hero

So Kebede the man this time... no Roy, Ganambarr instead, less riding more sprinting himself for him normally. But with 47 reg he can be active when needed. Not too many sprints around, but reading the chat yesterday seems at least 1 flat sprinter will be there, which means Donks can help block in the end on days it's a full MS (if necessary, if enough flat sprinters around no need) will look for stages with more hills another time.
Dixon with his 86 mountain normally not good enough for a stage vs Tukh, let's hope he finds superb legs at some point. But with the vuelta spread over 2 months.. form plays less a role than usual.
Will start the Vuelta off, today might remember to check before the start, put in help, might remember to check after the hill, put in offline tempo and sprint at some time, might not. You'll see.

[Gipfelstuermer]

12 Teams here. 2 less than afternoon TDF but exactly the same number as for the Giro. That's pretty good for an afternoon Vuelta.

With Team FL it could have been more than at the Giro! Well, not starting here is fine (leaves sprint chances for Cabassi) but not posting a favo check is unacceptable. How are we supposed to ride without the favo check, FL? Just look at today 's stage. Moja escaping, Gipfel riding in peloton. Verkehrte Welt! Total chaos compared to Giro and TDF!

The fans from Brescia liked it though. The Cabassi Cooking Club used this very rare chance to see a Vuelta stage finish not far from Gianpaolo's home town. With this little bit of extra motivation for Cabassi - he had been looking forward to and planning for this stage for a long time - it was clear we had to ride for one of the few mass sprints.

Since our future flat stars are too young, we relied on other sprinter teams (CC, CP) and GC teams (Tukh, BD) for blocking the end, and it worked. Then surprisingly Jongh (not Zenko) got Cabassi's wheel. 80 flat 85 sprint is monster strong but since neither the weather nor the tempo were extreme, we clearly expected Zenko there. This could tell us something about form settings (even though I expected good form for both) or 80 flat 85 sprint is just incredibly good for positioning. Or Zenko was on Jongh but cannot really imagine that (unless CC expected me to fail in the sprint train which could somehow be realistic^^). Zenko starting then from 150 was not too bad but thanks to our youngstar Delpierre leading out Cabassi it was enough from 100. Stage win and one day in the maillot rojo.

What will it mean for the few upcoming sprint stages? Form can change, but potentially less help from CC? Or vice versa, more help from CP if he is able to get the Cabassi wheel? Depends a bit on their form and expectations.

Tomorrow a classical Vuelta stage profile à la ________/. Even though not finishing very steep, so we'll see what happens. Without the favo check it could remain chaotic !

[Gipfelstuermer]

Unfortunately FL is busy commenting on fairplay whilst keeping his Vuelta expertise for himself so there is little hope for a proper favo check! But OK, we don't need no favo check! We have the stats! And stats don't lie.

Stage wins by riders:

1 - Gianpaolo Cabassi (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Murodbek Makhamadzhonov (Tukhtahuaev)

Stage wins by teams:

1 - Gipfelstuermer
1 - Tukhtahuaev

Days in the maillot rojo:
1 - Gianpaolo Cabassi (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Murodbek Makhamadzhonov (Tukhtahuaev)

[Falcor CC]

Down with FL! Here's my favo list:

GC
***** Murodbek 'Voldemort' Makhamadzhonov (Tuk)
****
***
** Alex Dixon (Big Donkey), Roberto Zambrano (Vives)
* Michael Redrocks (Falcor CC), Khosrow Panahi (CircleCycle), Misko Holden (Celteam)

Points
*** Makhamadzhonov (Tuk)
** Cabassi (Gip)
* Jenko (CircleCycle)

KOM
*** Makhamadzhonov (Tuk)
** A surprising rider
* A very surprising rider

Youth
*** Gerdes (Moja)
** Ruhnke (Moja)
* Badenhorst (CircleCycle)

Team
Nobody knows, nobody cares. Probably Tuk anyways.

[Gipfelstuermer]

Good news, according to the stats, the Vuelta boycotters are losing out big time (see below).

Well, the Gipfelstuermers were also losing out the last two days... and we'll lose out in the TTT today again... but at least we have time to write some race reports here

Stage 3: Better than expected collaboration amongst sprinters & hill sprinters (whilst Tukh going for Makhamadzhonov green jersey on the IS), then the sprint... has been discussed in detail in chat already actually... summary: early launch by Zenko surprising everyone, unlucky moment for Kebede, who then was a bit weaker than Cabassi.... and then Jongh was strong enough to fly by. With Jongh winning that, it is clear: 80 flat rules and old school sprinters are out.

Stage 4: Worse than expected (or hoped for) collaboration amongst sprinters & hill sprinters. Big Donkey sieb left Cabassi behind, Zenko further behind and Jongh even further behind. We committed everyone to bring back Cabassi, but Big Donkey & Wolfpack Cycling Team kept him just behind with advantage hovering around 1''-5''. Of course I made at least one mistake: Used Batistella instead of Papillon on the +5. With Papillon might be enough? Or not? Because Lanfredini was used only sporadically on the first few km anyway (perfect execution of the sprinter dropping strategy by the Donkey). Then there was a another potential mistakes: Could have waited for Zenko and/or Jongh, but as they both had attacking-chances in front with Dickbauer/Eshkol and Hutterd/Maris, seemed unlikely that the'd drop those guys to ride behind for a limited sprint chance. Anyway, Wolfpack finished it off and it was somehow deserved for him, too, as he was riding in group 1 in the right moments.

Now, outlook for the rest of Vuelta is rather grimm. Organizing mass sprints will be ultra difficult and maillot verde likely going to a climber (or: the climber), as it does in most years thanks to the clever stage classifications and IS positioning of ASO Vuelta organisers! There is your reason for a boycott...! 2026 Gipfel Vuelta boycott not unlikely at this stage...!

Stage wins by riders:
1 - Gianpaolo Cabassi (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Murodbek Makhamadzhonov (Tukhtahuaev)
1 - Arend Jongh (CreditPommes)
1 - Guy Walters (Wolfpack Cycling Team)

Stage wins by teams:
1 - Gipfelstuermer
1 - Tukhtahuaev
1 - Credit Pommes
1 - Wolfpack Cycling Team

Days in the maillot rojo:
3 - Murodbek Makhamadzhonov (Tukhtahuaev)
1 - Gianpaolo Cabassi (Gipfelstuermer)

[Robyklebt]

9 stages done!

GC looks as clear as predicted. Makhamadzhonov.
Behind him though Zambrano is in trouble. Losing time on every mountain. Others, Dixon and Redrocks closer. Panahi needs to hope for training to be able to fully profit from his slight TT advantage. Also gained a bit less in TTT than expected. So right now would say Redrocks favorite for second place. Zambrano just not delivering, his low flat not helping him either. Dixon has the reg&sprint problem... Has chances, but...

Donkeys, so far went well actually. Dixon twice with Makhamadzhonov. Good. Twice second, once third. Good. But the stage .. and I really would much rather win a stage with him than be on the podium. Unfortunately the most likely outcome is I get neither...

Kebede, there I misread the profiles. Or to be more precise underestimated the guts of other managers. Often with sprint profiles like this you get no team that is serious about sprinters. See lot of Dec tours, sprinter-friendly, but the stay away. Thought Kebede would be a top 3 sprinter here...Even stage 1, a clear sprint stage might become either escape or something for Kebede. Wrong! Gipfel the ith the train, CC with Jenko changed all that. Kebede here still correct, Toulet with his mountain is no-good here, just had to re-evaluate the goals. Managed to keep away the sprinters once, surprised, thought it hopeless, with some help from Wolfpack and decisive help from Tukh at the end worked. Ended up 5th... My train so weak would have to go at 150 at the latest with Kebede, no chance vs Wolters like that, took a Moja-wheel, expecting a train, he was on Wolters, I was 2 back, went at the same time, lost the wheel due to ? blockage? Lane change? Anyway, 5th. But better than 2nd with own train somehow. For points not, but we're not really in that fight anyway.

So now... hoping for a lucky punch vs Makhamadzhonov. Catch him, drop the stronger sprinters...
Lüthi? 2 similar riders might work, might not.
Escapes? Will try that too. Goal is a stage, more than second or third in GC, have the feelings I'll end up 4th somehow anyway.

Jerseys seem pretty decided, Makhamadzhonov 3, points vs Cabassi only.

Not unhappy with how it went so far, got better placements than I expected (after seeing the field) just that stage missing.

[Robyklebt]

Second week.. .bad bad. First week I did better than expected, read above, just the win missing. Maybe others didn't have form there?
Second week much worse. 2 possible hill sprints, failed twice. First one was highly unlikely anyway. No chance. Second one seemed more possible, but just too alone, even with a Roy at his best instead of Ganambarr don't think can do it. Also... can keep away the sprinters (although if they try together, I'm less sure, even on the stage that I kept them away) but not catch the classics while staying fit enough to hold it. So for me would have been better if Gipfel went for Cabassi on Sunday... the idea to propose that to him just came too late. On Monday I wait, he drops Batistella, we go full power in the back, Cabassi vs Walters vs Kebede in the end. Sounds good. Alone with Walters there to beat me anyway most likely (usual optimism andbrilliantly I managed to have my 2 most important riders for the day, Kebede and Lanfredini at 960+950 at the start as well) just doesn't look likely to work. Eshkol then got away, good tactic, help me come back, which resulted in me taking my riders of his 2 attackers, let him have his chance, after all he rides for it. Unlike others....

REst of the week not really better. A moronic attempt to use Dixon for Lüthi. Cost me GC time and was highly stupid, should have known how it works out the way I did it. GC time loss isn't all bad, I'd be favorite for 4th even without that, but tighter control by Redrocks and Zambrano maybe? Zambrano improving btw. Now i I ever try to anticipate they can rely on Murodbek, if I was in the fight for second place they might ride themselves. Dixon second week was risk tactics, try to follow Murodbek (or was that still in the first week?) not following anybody, hoping for blocks by others, and forgot, anyway, who cares about 4th or 6th in GC, all for a stage. Not that the chances increase much, but why not gamble. Attackblocked by somebody, only one not following... stuff like that. Not sure what I'll try next time around.

Anyway, third week, 3 times mountain, 3 chances for Dixon, also 3 chances for Makhamadzhonov and for Zambrano-Holden-Redrocks, alls 87 or 86 with more sprint than me... I need to be lucky... 2 sprints, Viva Kebede, beat those suckers in the flat sprint! And the TT, Vigni for the win. Ok, maybe a top 10...

[Falcor CC]

Since Gip became too lazy after stage 4 and Donkey thinks I should do it (finally acknowledging I'm better?), a stats update with 3 stages left:

Red jersey
1 Murodbek Makhamadzhonov Tukhtahuaev 00:00:00
2 Michael Redrocks Falcor CC 00:02:13
3 Roberto Zambrano Vives le velos 00:02:48
4 Khosrow Panahi CircleCycle 00:03:19
5 Alex Dixon Big Donkey 00:04:01
6 Thorben Gerdes Team-Mojabahs 00:04:05
7 Oskar Stoel CreditPommes 00:05:18
8 Crescenzo Poggiolini Tukhtahuaev 00:05:20
9 Paul Ruhnke Team-Mojabahs 00:05:49
10 Alexandre Ferreira Wolfpack Cycling ... 00:05:53
11 Misko Holden celteam 00:06:13
12 David Sporgel Pantani Marco 00:07:37
13 Rodolfo Devagna Pantani Marco 00:11:11
14 Lucas Papillon Gipfelstuermer 00:12:13
15 Sem Hutterd CreditPommes 00:13:49

Top 6 looks pretty definitive with just 1 mountain stage to go. Poggio vs Stoel for p7, Ruhnke vs Ferreira vs Holden for p9 still seems interesting!

Green jersey
1 Murodbek Makhamadzhonov Tukhtahuaev 292
2 Michael Redrocks Falcor CC 245
3 Gianpaolo Cabassi Gipfelstuermer 222
4 Oskar Stoel CreditPommes 205
5 Roberto Zambrano Vives le velos 157

Looks like Murodbeks second jersey. Cabassi probably jumping over Redrocks with 2 chances for stage wins.

KOM jersey
1 Murodbek Makhamadzhonov Tukhtahuaev 90
2 Roberto Zambrano Vives le velos 64
3 Michael Redrocks Falcor CC 45
4 Khosrow Panahi CircleCycle 26
5 Alex Dixon Big Donkey 26

Top 3 decided. 3/3 for Murodbek!

White jersey
1 Thorben Gerdes Team-Mojabahs 00:00:00
2 Paul Ruhnke Team-Mojabahs 00:01:44
3 Jenson Badenhorst CircleCycle 00:18:16
4 Fabi Cancilore Vives le velos 02:18:28
5 Domingo Cruz Falcor CC 03:04:21

Maybe a 3hr comback by p4 or p5, who knows! Moja can choose himself who wins here.

Team
1 Tukhtahuaev 00:00:00
2 Team-Mojabahs 00:09:10
3 Big Donkey 00:27:45

No one cares... But guess a 4th classification for Tuk!

Stage wins by riders:
8 - Murodbek Makhamadzhonov (Tukhtahuaev)
1 - Gianpaolo Cabassi (Gipfelstuermer)
1 - Arend Jongh (CreditPommes)
1 - Guy Walters (Wolfpack Cycling Team)
1 - Zan Jenko (CircleCycle)
1 - Michael Redrocks (Falcor CC)
1 - Misko Holden (Celteam)
1 - Thorben Gerdes (Team-Mojabahs)
1 - Noa Eskhol (CircleCycle)
1 - Martim Correia (Wolfpack Cycling Team)

Stage wins by teams:
8 - Tukhtahuaev
2 - CircleCycle
2 - Wolfpack Cycling Team
1 - Gipfelstuermer
1 - Credit Pommes
1 - Vives le velos (TTT)
1 - Falcor CC
1 - Celteam
1 - Team-Mojabahs

Days in the maillot rojo:
15 - Murodbek Makhamadzhonov (Tukhtahuaev)
2 - Roberto Zambrano (Vives le velos)
1 - Gianpaolo Cabassi (Gipfelstuermer)

[Tukhtahuaev]

Pretty sure Zambrano wore the jersey for 2 days after the TTT

[Falcor CC]

Pretty sure Zambrano wore the jersey for 2 days after the TTT

Ah yes, edited that in!

[Robyklebt]

You should do it if you're interested in it!