le TOUR 2010 - 14:00 h

[Robyklebt]

Happy of course..

Finally something to read! Viva Nilkheim

[Aixteam]

Even if you mentionned it , you didn't really say that Rinner has a form which goes down for sure , and which should be around 93 tomorrow .. If Mandel has to wait him a day , that could be catastrophic ... But yeah , Rinner is in a good way

[DJK Nilkheim]

Even if you mentionned it , you didn't really say that Rinner has a form which goes down for sure , and which should be around 93 tomorrow .. If Mandel has to wait him a day , that could be catastrophic ... But yeah , Rinner is in a good way

sorry for this, aix, but as you see, everybody knows

and i will try my best, not to lose to much to him in the hills, maybe it works...

for me it is annoying but maybe even of beneficial that i ( and all the others as i think) dont know, how the TT will work out and how much time santillo can gain.



EDit: why do we talk most of the time german in the chat, but english in here?

[Aixteam]

Because I don't understand German ! You can speak English in the chat too , as Petit Singe ...

[DJK Nilkheim]

today everything went other than i thought, but it was good

at first i wasnt able to attacke because my internetconnection wasnt working til km 28...

nothing really happened til there was the first hill and bergwerk did what he had to do -
mandelbrot went up the hill for rinner, but now as fast as possible. (even like this he had about 20sec to santillo)

but after the hill he went out of tempo and waited til witthaker is back in the group.
then witthaker made the tempo downhill and when it came to the final hill roby gave his best.
a bit surprisingly rinner fall back behind santillo and in the end santillo was able to safe 3sec to rinner.

Nobody really knows, who much time santillo can gain in the final TT, but he will maybe lose some time tomorrow
but off course a lot at the tourmalet...

lets see how it works

[Aixteam]

Santillo 0
Rinner 0'14
Sheringham 1'58
Neubaer 2'06
Corvia 2'06
Gamov 3'06
Mandelbrot 4'34

Calculations for after the TT , with same form ..

Rinner has good chances

[Robyklebt]

Winner of the day clearly Santillo

Attack by Buonarroti, early. Reason, easy, either BW let's him go, then of course the Gamov attack follows. Time gain in that case might be slighly higher, but not all that much, don't think it would have been a minute, maybe 45" maybe even less... if Gamov attacks to early, maybe even caught before the downhill...But if everything works perfectly more, risk of course. Anyway, Roby S. there, bad for BW, so he rides, get's the group back. SEcond attack by Buonarroti soon, so that Mandel rides again, red if possible, to make Rinner fight. Which probably he did. Mandel gets Ivan, drops him, then makes the same mistake as on the Madeleine. Madeleine nothing at all would have happened if he doesn't let Santillo and Buonarroti back, a solo attack by Gamov=0 chances, could only work with Buonarotti. And didn't... But he let's him and Santillo back. Today the same, he has 4'12", that's not even enough with the same form, but it's no mystery that Santillos form will be better than Rinners form. So why let him back? Ok, Rinner fighting, let him recover a bit, but again,why give him 20" back as easily as that again? Today was the day to give him time IMO. Much more difficult in the days to come, including Tourmalet. BW for reasons I'll never understand decided to let him back...he was always going to lose some time to Gamov/Corvia in the end. Sheringham too finally, he recovered well. Then the last climb was very easy for Gamov... sieb at 11, Santillo still there was surprising, Rinner dropped a bit too. Tought either both dropped or both there... Then unfortunately for me Corvia in tempo, think otherwise I would have dropped Santillo in the next km already... Mmh, just saw that Corvia tried an attack on the 11 too.. wasn't a sectrick? Was I in that late?? Didn't have my clock on.. thought was in fairly early.. Anyway, Corvia in and slowing Yuri down .grrr... of course right thing to do for Corvia...went on yes alone at the 10, then attack, didn't think I could drop Corvia just with tempo... but if he attacked at the 11 maybe would have been possible. Bah well. And I should have told him to let me in tempo alone until Santillo is gone... no attack until then. But didn't.. biggest mistake today.. But on the other hand like that he probably fought for 3 km and then lost more, so ok. But another 5" or so over Rinner would have been nice.. Maybe after all shouldn't have attacked... take his deal, I ride, he goes out, I don't attack, he let's me the stage, probably would have won more time on Rinner, and Santillo too. Hope won't regret it later....

Situation now:

Rinner
Corvia 0'44" Not far off, Still 3 stages where he can win time. then he'll lose some in the TT, but not 1' like it would be with the same form. My guess is less than 30", but let's say 30" easier. So need's 1'15" maybe. Difficult, but not impossible.
Sheringham: 1' 25" back. Working together with Corvia makes sense, even if he has 41" to catch up. With the same form over 50 km he should gain 45" on Corvia. Now more than even before they are natural allies. Let the TT lottery at the end decide. Still in the race
Gamov: 1'44" Basically 1' to win on Corvia-Sheringham to be in the same position as them... so 2'15" for Rinner. We'll see, Buonarroti can be a good help, like he was today, the rest much less... can be fairly isolated fairly easily, but the strongest in the mountains. Except Mandelbort, but too late to play the Mandel card for BW I think.
Santillo: 4'09" back. And now with excellent chances. He is not much weaker than Rinner in the mountain, we saw that today, and depending on where his topform is the difference might even become smaller. IN the TT with same form he wins 4'15 (50km over 52 a bit more) with a bit better form.. let's say roughly 30" more, makes 4'45"... to feel safe in BWs place I'd want over 5', clearly. His weakness is the team, and the flat of Nilkheim... who will suffer if the tempo ever gets high near a climb. But gaining 3" on Rinner today was huge.

All 5 still with chances. Not really sure exactly how to gain 2'15" or so to Rinner, but I'm not the only one who has to try.. maybe other attacks give an opening... and the situation is similar for Corvia and Sheringham too... 1'15" is easier said than done. And Rinner with Nilkheim to drop, and the 3 others who shouldn't get to close is not in the easiest situation either...

[Zentaron]

Ha, Frederic with a stroke of genius today. He attacked two kilometers before the finish and Terranova (the Claudio one) didn't had the heart to follow him.

[DJK Nilkheim]

no comments on todays race please

[Robyklebt]

Comments, comments

Rinner 0
Corvia 44"
Sheringham 1'25"
Gamov 1'39"
Santillo 5'06"

Winner of the day: Rinner.

Third stage win for Gamov. Not unexpected. I thought I was the favorite, and I actually thought to win more time. The race, Mullermann goes, but no, not this time, Nedelcu follows. No support rider further ahead for Nilkheim, if I want to win the Tour I have to gain 3 or so more minutes to him... Knew that Bergwerk would not let Nedelcu go. Clever Nilkheim then attacked with 2 of the sausages, at first tried to get him, but not alone, so ok, let him go. Stage? Thoronto can have it, I have 2, wasn't going to ride I thought. Better possibilities to gain time if the stage win is not a factor anyway, then less people have reason to ride in the back. Then Lecce, who according to BW was the favorite, he had good chances with Corvia, true, rode... so ok, I probably should too, after all I thought to have the best chances for the stage... ok, riding again, Feng as usual. Superstar that Feng.
Then Portet d'Aspet and Ares, nothing much happens, ok, sieb with Buonarroti then. OK, I only have 3 in front, but I don't need more than that. OK, if Lecce and BW decide to go with their monsters I have only 2 and a problem, but thought they wouldn't. Since everybody talks about Lecce, maybe he plans to attack before the last climb with a few flat stars? If yes, not my problem, then it's BW who has to ride if he is in front too, then it's up to Nilkheim. But nothing happened..

So last climb... the plan was, sieb a bit with Gamov, get rid of that Nilkheim finally, let Rinner fight too, then later attack and win another 20"+. First sieb, Nilkheim stays, but Corvia gone though Not as planned. The plan was, 10=sieb, Santillo gone, Mandelbrot goes into tempo... Not sure he would have, since he showed little interest in dropping Santillo so far Next km 7 8 9 6 10 10... mmhh, 7 maybe not steep enough to let everybody fight. and the 6 there very bad as well, no Rinner fighting... So ok, Come back with Buonarroti, bring back Corvia as well, then sieb again later. 8.. sieb no sieb, no decided, let^s wait for 9, 9, sieb, but then, stupid 6, what happen's if he's still there? Won^t ride the 6, then ok, at 10 I drop him for sure, fighting already anyway... Bah..so decided to attack instead... Especially since BW let me alone in tempo. Which he didn't, he put in Mandel blue, with a bad sectrick, grrr, maybe did it earlier too. not sure. Gamov 14", thought Mandel would get me. But... Mandel weak, either not fit from yesterday, or weakened on purpose so that Rinner wouldn't have to fight. So Gamov saves roughly the same over the top, behind Mandel, Rinner and Sheringham try to drop Santillo, don't manage to. Probably more talking would have been good, after the hill BW said he wanted to attack but everybody was always in tempo... So Santillo stays, nobody except Nilkheim happy, downhill, Gamov doesn't gain as much as I hoped.. early attack, already less energy than the others, grrr. But enough to save the stage win.. which is better than nothing but wasn't the primary goal. Santillo then dropped at -7 or almost at the end of the downhill. He didn't even try to follow, even though Nilk said he had put in following... and once dropped didn't ride... waited for ByZickl in the back, so finally lost 1'12" to GAmov instead of maybe 25"-40". But ok, Nilkheim very probably was at the reg limit due to the fighting anyway. Lucky BW here in the end... not sure why he didn't try at 0, Rinner 61, Santillo 51 and less energy... I would have tried... but ok, finally worked anyway. So Rinner the big winner, not only didn't lose real time to the 3 climbers, but won 57" to Santillo. Gamov and the celestial ape.. .bah, third stage win, mountain star of the Tour, but 2 were already ok, not that excited about another win, 5" won, a bit disappointed, hoped to win more. 20"-30" actually. And still would be far back...

Now, it looks good, Santillo 5'06" back. 52 Km TT, 17 points difference is 4'25" that's with the same form. 19 points would be 4'56" 20 points already 5'12, etc. So Rinner hasn't beaten Santillo a 100% yet, but it looks good, much better than before yesterday. A bit lucky though, while BW rode a very very good race against Gamov, Corvia and Sheringham so far, he didn't really do a good job against Nilkheim. But finally yesterday it worked, a bit lucky, but without luck you win nothing... But not over, today is a bit of a mystery, normally the climbers should all arrive in one group, but you never know, dangerous stage as well. Tourmalet much less IMO, will be a fairly straight affair, GAmov goes and wins Ah, maybe not, but don't see how Rinner could lose too much time on Gamov, Corvia, Sheringham, Santillo there.

Man of the race though. ByZickl. Rustan Calincov, attacking every day, if he hadn't made a stupid helping mistake, he very likely would have won the stage. Before the Balès, or maybe in the flatter part in the beginning, he lets him drop and loses a minute... very unlucky, would have deserved the win for all his attacks.

As for Nilkheim and "hopefully Bergwerk doesn't get help now anymore".. pleeeease.... yep, yesterday a bit everybody was trying to drop you. But well, Aix, Lecce and Petit Singe all still have some chances to win the Tour, since BW simply seems unable and unwilling to drop you, we kind of had to try to do it ourselves.. finally though you managed to drop Santillo yourself. So while there was some planned help, but for everybodies own interest, finally there was no help. Plus... .you're the guy who got carried through everything so far.... Santillo on the pavé stage had no helper and nothing, you just let him be in the back and let others ride for him.... you really didn't do much for Santillo either so far. Which worked very well for a long time, probably BW underestimated you because of that.. .me too, lack of experience, always though, no way you win, podium yes, win no chance, not enough experience. You still can win IMO.

Mountain: No, still not riding for the mountain... Of course Gamov gets points at the end, like yesterday. Today there are 70 points to be taken by the winner. I probably could get them, but.. no interest really. Now if Santillo hadn't lost the minute yesterday... maybe I would go for it. yellow AND red, too much... but that would mean tempo for nothing (ok, mountain points) x times a race... then minimizes my chances in the end. No... keep your red. I'll try to win the Tour, but more probably will end up 5th which is ok too. Now if Gamov gets lucky and gets 2nd and third places on the mountains and just rolls, gains a lot of points back, then maybe I change my mind for the Tourmalet stage. But certainly not going to luck for mountain points today.

[DJK Nilkheim]

maybe you didnt notice, but i wasnt there at the end of the pave-stage...

and as everybod says i am not favo for the yellow, why should i ride?

[Robyklebt]

For yourself?

[DJK Nilkheim]

as long as there is no need...

[Zentaron]

Ha, Roby finally failed. No Marzahn out of the race. Even no one is out today.

[bergwerk cycling]

Today im very sad ... lost my lovely yellow shirt only with 1 Sek. ... aua.

But what a great fight today ... i think a very very good and interesting stage ...
i will remember one day ... only what i will missing, is the victory in the end

[deuseburger]

what a fight!
really enjoyed beeing among the spectators...
thx to you guys for making an interesting stage a real happening...

Chapeau !

greez deuse

[DJK Nilkheim]

heavy stage today!
everybody saw what happend, so no summary from me ( just wait for roby )


I just want to list up the GC after the final TT, if nothing unespected will happen

1. Roby Sheringham - wont lose time to Corvia at tourmalet, but stronger TT
2. Hannes Rinner - Mandelbrot will save him at tourmalet, stronger in TT than Corvia
3. Gabriele Corvia - weak TT
4. Yuri Gamov - will gain some time at tourmalet, but weak TT, too
5. Manuel Santillo - lose time at tourmalet, too much for TT


that is what i would say because of the skills and the form, that i can just guess.
but i hope to be on the podium with santillo, off course

PS: impossible is nothing and understatement is everything

[Robyklebt]

Winner of the day:

Sheringham, Covia, Santillo.

Santillo and Sheringham double, they both won a TT point overnight.
With the same form that is:

Santillo:
Rinner: + 4'41"
Sheringham +4'41"
Corvia: 5'43"
Gamov 5'43"

But then we all know Rinner will have horrible form. between 8 and 14 less than the others, depending on where their topform is, Ax 3 Domaines or TT. So he really will be 31" further back, at least. So he get 5'12"

That means:

Santillo:
Rinner 6"
Sheringham 16"
Corvia 37"
Gamov 1'32"

Hope for no calculating mistakes... but very possible there are some.

Then of course the form between the others a question as well, clear that all have between Ax and TT somewhere, think I know 3 of the 4, but let everybody think for themselves... could be another 31" swing in one direction or the other.

Favorite now?

Santillo, Sheringham, Corvia. In this order. I think it will be very dificult for Gamov and Rinner now... not really the outcome I hoped for today, hoped for a tougher chase, with a split Lecce-BW, maybe just one BW there, then I wait after the Peyresourde. And go again with Buonarroti (by then probably really weak) in the Tourmalet. But didn't happen... the idea to drop Rinner by using Gamov for the sieb came fairly late as well. Corvia and Sheringham dropped too of course... which was horrible... but Aix with a fast reaction came back. And then it just developed. Zickl helping, for a stage win, ok, in his place I would have used Del Rio later actually. Then all together... mmh, wasn't really convinced, but no specific plan... ok. Then ok.. basically I should have gone out much earlier, in this constellation now my chances somehow look small. Still better than before today, Nilk another 44" gained on him, Rinner now more beatable than before, the others the same.. . But bah.. had to continue as well, went out the last 5 or so km.. more pro forma than any real meaning.

BW hard day for him... what should he have done differently? Not much really, he rode well. There wasn't much he could do. Get Nilkheim to work for his Tour win maybe. Other than that? Ok, put fighting on at the sieb, to stay there, fighting is really important, no fighting makes a huge difference... with fighting you follow forever, no fighting you are dropped immediately.. see Corvia/Roby with 87 dropped, DelRio with 83 there. But then BW can't really know what will happen. A bit faster in the back? At times I thought so, but finally I think he did all right, he waited for the correct riders. Leave Mandel in front? To disrupt us in front. Which could have worked. Ok, Psycho was riding anyway, not sure why with his energy level. And told him too... But maybe Zickl and Villeon wouldn't have in that case. then it's 4 riding... and then if Mandel does a few siebs, dropping this one and that one then not waiting... but ok, only had the idea now, 1 hour after the race... but that probably could have worked. Still, need to have the idea... Basically BW rode well, there just wasn't all that much he could do.

NIlkheim on the other hand might have lost the Tour in the last 2 days. Yesterday not riding, today not riding again, he really needed to be in with Neubauer the whole downhill from the Aubisque. Who probably had more energy than the 2 BWs. Still, IMO he has excellent cards to win this. Even better than Sheringham and Corvia. All he has to do is lose as little time as possible on the others on the Tourmalet. Sieb him away.. possible, but who will do it? Aix needs to pay attention to Corvia, Mandel has to keep Rinner with those 2. And Roby has to win everything somehow... if you all put fighting out again, cool, I'll sieb.. Of course 16" is not much to lose. But again, it's not a 100% foolproof calculation. I had the impression that it's always rather slightly more for a long time.. maybe that was just the risk. .. plus again, the form, only Aix knows Robys form for sure, but he doesn't know Nilks for sure. Luck, risk, form, even with 25" gain he can't be sure to win it. Needs as much as possible basically, but without letting Corvia gaining to much time. Anyway, right now I think Santillo has the best chances, in front of Sheringham and Corvia. Next then Rinner, then Gamov.. but honestly both seem out. But then I hope to be wrong.

Red: Mmh, NOW I'm seriously thinking about red. If it's still possible, will have to check the standings and the points that can be taken later on the rest day....mmh, no rest day would be more fun... then I'd win the Tour!

[DJK Nilkheim]

roby, after the stage yesterday you said, rinner has mostly beaten santillo, today, after no timechange between this two, santillo has one it...

[Robyklebt]

Yes... Santillo won 15" over night. Plus before Rinner could hope to suvive a sieb by Mandel better than SAntillo. Now Mandel doesn't really need to sieb anymore. Maybe.. but we'll see.

[Aixteam]

All I know is that it will be very close ...

[DJK Nilkheim]

NIlkheim on the other hand might have lost the Tour in the last 2 days. Yesterday not riding, today not riding again, he really needed to be in with Neubauer the whole downhill from the Aubisque.

i am really sorry, but at this point of time i wasnt online, because i had to help my sister to carry out some things, which took a lot of time! You could have seen it at Mullermann, he made tempo the hole hill^^

[Psychopath]

Kann nicht ausreichend Englisch, drum verzeihe man mir bitte, dass ich hier auf deutsch schreibe.


Wollte mich an dieser Stelle noch einmal herzlich bedanken bei der Führungsgruppe, das ihr auf mich gewartet habt, als die Kräfte bei mir nachließen.
Das ich dann attackiert habe, um wieder aufzuschließen, war natürlich dumm. Das ihr aber auf mich wartet, damit habe ich nicht gerechnet. Denn der Vorsprung erschien mir sehr knapp mit den ganzen Bergfahrern. Waren doch einige starke Flachfahrer auf Verfolgerkurs.

Und eben weil ihr da auf mich gewartet habt, war es für mich eine klare Entscheidung, dass ich nicht sprinte, sondern euch die vorderen Plätze überlasse.
Mal ungeachtet dessen, dass ich ohnehin am Ende 0 Kraft hatte und eh nicht mehr hätte können

Das da Lecce sich noch entschuldigt hat, das er vor mir ankam, beschämt mich ja schon fast...


Die Fairnessabteilung der Anstalt
... die irgendwo im tiefsten Keller sitzt und normalerweise gar nicht zur Kenntnis genommen wird

[DJK Nilkheim]

from pate to english:


Can not sufficient English, that's why you forgive me that I write here in German.


Would like to take this opportunity once again thank the leadership group, you have been waiting for me, as the forces subsided with me.
The attack then I have to catch up again was, of course, stupid. This, however, it is waiting for me, so I did not expect. For the projection seemed very tight with all the climbers. Were still some strong flatriders pursuers on course.

And just because you have been waiting there for me, for me it was a clear decision that I do not sprint, but you leave the front seats.
Time despite the fact that I already had power at the end of 0 and before, no longer have to;)

The da Lecce has excused, he arrived before me, shamed me so almost ...


The fairness of the asylum department
... somewhere in the deepest basement sits and is not normally noted

---
google translator is quite good, just use it

[Robyklebt]

NIlkheim on the other hand might have lost the Tour in the last 2 days. Yesterday not riding, today not riding again, he really needed to be in with Neubauer the whole downhill from the Aubisque.

i am really sorry, but at this point of time i wasnt online, because i had to help my sister to carry out some things, which took a lot of time! You could have seen it at Mullermann, he made tempo the hole hill^^

No need to be sorry, you only hurt your own chances in those 2 days. Ok, no yesterday Rinners too. As for Mullermann and tempo the whole hill... ehm, that's kind of normal for Mullermann, he does that every day

Checked my red plans btw. 50 points to be had, you have 34 advantage... bah.. .not sure, just not really interested in red, would need to work for it.. we'll see.