Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

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Robyklebt
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Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:34 pm

The Donkey, this good old reliable soul opens a Vuelta thread??? Why? We know the Donkey, he does what he does, certainties abound when talking about him, few or no doubts. He's as predictable as the smell that emanates from an unflushed toilet.

- His team is always the same: 2 climbers with no TT as leaders for the Giro.
- No sprinter over 80 since the new sprint system was implemented.
- He doesn't sell riders before retirement.
- He's unfailingly friendly and polite.
- His climbers don't ride cat 1 fantasy one day races
- Like clockwork before the Vuelta he complains about the injustice that the Vuelta 09 was cancelled with 5 days notice, then definite like 3 days ahead. Who cares? (The Donkey does). And refuses to ride it unless one year only the afternoon gets a Vuelta.
- He loudly complains each time somebody does a trick sprint.
- He writes nonstop in the chat.
- He seldom wins.
- He claims to be the moral winner after every race.
- He doesn't understand 90% of FL's puns.

And now? This Donkey has gone wild it seems. Corona? Fat in the brain? Sexual frustration? Too much belly dancing? Who knows, but the fact remains that the Donkey has broken a bunch of Donkeysms in the last months. Who knows what he'll do next? Ah, we know, he's riding the Vuelta! Crazy times!

So the Vuelta, Big Donkey at the Vuelta!

The team:

1 J. Larios: 87 mountain, GC leader with little flat and reg. GC win the first goal, stage win or podium the second.
2 H. Belhassen 74-80 classic, mostly helper, if there's a chance he might get the opportunity to chase a stage, but first duty is to help
3 T. Bogarin, 77 sprinter, possible downtraining. 1 of 2 sprint leaders
4 A. Brotcorne: 55-87 flat star, there to do what he does. Which seems missing the moments to attack or follow. But his job is: there for high tempo, if needed
5 T. Eiffel: 75 climber with 60 TT, in training, 76 when the Vuelta starts There to learn, in a year he wants to win. Helper for Larios. White most likely too difficult
6 B. Faye: 67-79, up and coming classic, possibly training. There to help Larios and the sprinters
7. F. Krankl. 63-83 with reg, Helper for Larios and the sprinters
8 F. Messerli: 82 sprinter, 95% to be 83 when the Vuelta starts. Training for MSR and one of 2 sprint leaders
9 O. Swift: 85 flat, 50 reg Looking for fitness, he starts 70% of his races unfit, maybe the Vuelta helps him find it?
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by flockmastoR » Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:23 pm

I would really like to start the Vuelta too at 15h. But with this team I dont really think this makes sense. Sprinter without team and no chance to get at least one flat guy. Some fun attacking but the stages are not that friendly for escapes. hm
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Hanse » Wed Aug 12, 2020 8:16 pm

flockmastoR wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 4:23 pm
I would really like to start the Vuelta too at 15h. But with this team I dont really think this makes sense. Sprinter without team and no chance to get at least one flat guy. Some fun attacking but the stages are not that friendly for escapes. hm
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Thu Aug 13, 2020 10:25 am

WEll would be nice to have you, but with that team.. understand not planning to come. Davies is a good sprinter that has chances, but you really would be dependent on other teams blocking the end. And well... since I always expect my sprinters to win, I would be ok with doing that, if a team like you does more or most of the work early, but of course we don't know how many other sprint teams are there... if there's others, that don't work, escape then I stop blocking for sprint very fast. Of course there might be working sprint teams too, so then there would be the expected sprints, but still you're still dependent on their mood. So with your team you risk ending up in a tour riding for sprints that don't happen, or attack every day with riders that are not that perfect for the Vuelta... so better off winning stuff like Bruxelles I think!
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Novostil » Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:04 pm

My 9 for Vuelta :

Alberto Fernandez : Good climber, he won one etappe in last Tour. Novostil's leader,

Michele Cipollini : Probably, this rider can win more easy than Fernandez. Not bad climbing.

Isidro Juarez : The shadow of Cipo. He has problems when uphills but he is important to help in the sprints.

Charlotta Safvenberg and Fernando Cabrero : Great riders with 80+ and 55+. I need this riders in the escapes everyday.

Javi Elorriaga : 64 of stamina. He can work in the first part of the stages.

Anastasio Greciano : 75+ 50. Good rider for the escapes.

Jaime Albisu : Young rider (21 years old), he is learning.

9 ? I will hire new rider for the Vuelta

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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:24 pm

9 teams, so that's fine, feared something like 5.. .hoped for 18 of course, but feared would be 5, so 9 is nice.

GC looks interesting, more open than the 2 previous afternoon-GTs.

Leo Konig though with the best individual skills. 86 with 65 TT, 56 reg. And 26 years old, still can train. Support is good in the mountains, 79 climber, 23 years old. Not sure about his training, started at 73-52, now 79-58, what's the point in risking mountain to get flat at that level? Anyway, Jelinek is the best mountain helper in the race, but like his leader misses downhill a bit.
Then a 71-58, basically a loader, not a helpful rider otherwise. 70-76 and 67-79 are better, but both again no downhill. Best downhiller of these 5 is Konig himself with 69. And that's the first weakness of the team, the second is the flat, 2 riders with 79, max.

Konig as leader is very strong, the team has weaknesses.

Neumann, 88 with 57 TT. Normally would say he's the favorite, but he is 35. So 3 downtrainings possible... normally he shouldn't take all, but 1 has to be expected I guess? Then 87 and will lose time vs Konig in the TT, so quite a lot to catch back.
Team weaker than at the Giro, no Heuer, Prilasnig at 77-74, Julien Martin 71-79. Good team, possible to try something early too (if there are stages for that, haven't really checked all that closely.)

Larios, 87, 32 years old, not much reg, but good team. 76 Eiffel, who will be training and go up. 74-80 for Belhassen, then 67-79 for Faye. Good flat riders too, but 2 sprinters in the team.

Roche, 85-62-72, but only 37 reg. And his manager not that experienced, and he already lost 1'37" to Konig. So he really normally is already out of GC. Team has 2 sprinters as well, but a 77 second climber and a 70-76 classic. So Roche shouldn't be isolated.

The others:

Schiwkow 82, 23 years old, favorite for white. His opponents are mostly helpers for Konig and Larios.
Sow 82 with 59 TT.
Martinez 81, 63 reg

They might benefit from some marking by the Konig-Neumann-Larios and gain a lot of time on a stage, a bit like Thirifays in the Tour. But from there to get to the GC win.. difficult.

Sprint:
Bennett 90 with Brammeier at 75 as helper.
Cipollini 89 with Juarez at 77
Messerli 83 with Bogarin 76

3 teams working together should have good chances to get the sprint, Brotcorne with 87 the best flat rider, as long as the 2 other teams do most of the work before he is happy to try to block the end.

Shterev 75 and Smith 70, the next strongest duo, they will be strong for the hillier stages normally, with 71+69 mountain.
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:18 am

3 stages,

Celtteam won the TTT
Bennett the first stage
Messerli the second stage.

Not that much to note really, stage 1 Ugao's collapse maybe, Roche, who due to the lack of expierence of the manager (not his fault, well yes, why did he discover this great game so late?) seemed to have little chances anyway, lost 1'37" to celt. His podium chances are even smaller now....

Stage 1 and 2, sprints, Ugao and Novostil with 90/89 plus good second sprinter did most of the work, group was never a danger, Big Donkey joined towards the end, controlling the very end with Swift and Brotcorne. New experience for Swift, he usually starts at 700 and rides early, going into the finale with 1000 energy he wasn't really too sure what to do, but we explained it to him and it worked.

Stage 1 sprint, Cipollini nowhere sensible, helping still in? Juarez, 77 second sprinter on Messerli, but unfit. Very bad sprint by Novostil, Ugao with his train, Donkey with his own, Bennett wins rather easily. Messerli second.

Stage 2 sprint: Ugao off early, so at 10' the Donkey himself started working. Joined immediately by Novostil. IMO late, Novostil with his rather shitty flat team should start earlier, especially if he wants to keep his full train, 63-77-89, fit. We don't know when Ugao shows up, normally in a 1 to 1 sprint I lose, and I'm the one who assures the sprint in the end with Swift/Brotcorne. So 7' or so would have been more sensible, Donkey then joins with the second rider or so. Then Ugao came on, but IMO a bit the same problem, the 2 weren't riding fast enough, or changing riders early enough, so Donkey joined much earlier than he hoped... Faye, Belhassen way under reg (but reg day, so ok). Wasn't such an easy catch finally, but worked. 1" advantage before the last km. And we didn't have that much more to spend actually. Sprint: This time it's Bennett that is nowhere. Donkey with the 2 man train, Bogarin-Messerli only. VC MUlti offline, so no Shterev in the wheel for sure, can try, with him there much more difficult. Messerli at 250, Cipollini waits till 150, way too late, so Messerli wins.

Experience counts, 2 sprints, combined 3 bad sprints by the 3 sprint teams. Novostil and Ugao both once had their sprinters in weird places, the suspicion is that they had help in (although Bennett wasn't even at a wheel when he started) although with our system bug is always possible too... And Novostil once when he was in a winning position waited way too long to sprint. 250 was possible, but a risk, if Messerli doesn't go, Messerli might then take his wheel. But seemed very likely that Messerli would go (well to me at least, might be because I decide what Messerli does) so I would have gone then. And if not, 200, Messerli with probably more energy 60vs51 flat, and a sizeable advantage, but it's still 83 vs 89, maybe enough to get him back? Both seemed possible, Messerli going through (that's why I went after all) or being caught by Cipollini who goes 50 meters later, but he went 100 meters later which was clearly too late. Plus I do have some doubts about Novostil's helping as well.... stage 1 Juarez on Messerli can't follow, not fit. Why not fit??? Did he ride? Don't remember, if yes, then he shouldn't. Or just not helping him properly? Unfit from the TTT? But he finished with the team, no way he should be under reg then. Or at least not enough not to recover. And on stage 2 Cipollini once he want didn't seem that strong either. Bennett, who sprinted from way back and at this point already had at least 100 meters sprinting in the wind, possibly more, was slower, yes, but not that much. So... NOvostil helping or form setting might be a problem too.

Anyway, 3 days, Messerli red, points (blue? forgot what colour it is...) white, nice. And a stage win. And the only lesson from these 3 days really is: Experience counts.

Coming sprints I will of course ride for sprint again, whenever those sprints finally come, after I won a stage I'll support the sprint even more, would be nice if Novostil manages to get one too.

Points jersey: I'm not really interested, don't even know what kind of points system we have, was 30 points for the winner in the flat stages. Oh, seems to be the standard thing... bah. Stupid, only sensible points classements is the one of the Vuelta, where every stage counts the same, now we don't have it... grr. Anyway, at the moment I couldn't care less about the points jersey, normally shouldn't be for a sprinter anyway, if it is for one then Bogarin/Shterev seemed most likely. But even those 2 probably won't get enough points in the more difficult stages... so really open and ? right now. If after 10 days I see that one of my 2 guys has chances might try, but for the moment we live day to day.

GC: Starts Tuesday! First of 3 GC stages, 2 before the first training so will Neumann win time back, and if yes, how much.
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by flockmastoR » Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:33 pm

Hm crazy stage, despite that the escape was through pretty fast it was kind of annoying. Never hat the chance to win with Noah. Looked like a classic Hund stage. But its a GT and there are lots of stages to come. But it will be interesting what happens when Kamaladevi continues going for mountain jersey.
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:41 pm

Decided to write something every 3 stages, seems a good idea, seems I then win every third stage. Maybe should change to daily writing to win every day?`No no, every 3 days is ok. So Tourmalet Sunday then Aguilar del Campo, and Angliru next week, Pueblo de Sanabria and Madrid in the last week. Sounds nice, nice wins! :lol:

Anyway, 3 eventful days.

Stage 4 huge group goes. Bachchan as expected. Pepelita from Moja's follows. Which already makes me unhappy. 88 climber, while not the outright favorite depending on downtraining he certainly has chances to gain the 1'30" or a bit more, that he will lose to Konig in the TT. Especially if we look at celt's not outstanding team, rather weak flat skills. And normally he's the stage favorite too. The classic Pais Vasco arrival at Arrate above Eibar.
Next, celt doesn't ride either, but attacks behind.. .at over 20' already. Ok, that I will catch. But what's the point. 86 mountain, 65 TT, good reg, good second climber, weaknesses in the flat team, but not ready to even control a little bit? Ride at 10' and I will join most likely, not trying to catch the group, but keep it at around 10'. Which IMO should have been his tactic too, let Moja lose ahead with Pepelita, instead of winning with Neumann in the peloton. Of course that win was not assured, but 88-55 with 52 sprint vs 87-53 with 48 and 86-55 with 48 sprint... that's more than enough chances. So why not just stay in the back, ride, hope for help? From my side probably would have come, while Neumann on paper is stronger, with the right block... can work. Follow with 1 point difference often works, first time at least, second time not.

So Moja going for Pepelita, celt doing nothing.. please, I start as number 3 here, certainly have chances, I'm an optimist anyway, but forget me starting to work when the stage favorite attacks and the GC favorite doesn't work but tries a pointless attack when the group is over 20' ahead.
Advantage went up over 30' Txomin Juaristi tried a nice comeback from the peloton, went a bit before the celt attempt, in the end was 13' back.

In the back then at km 150 attack by Eiffel Belhassen. Followed by Prilasnig, Moja 77 74 classic. Sow and Schiwkow, 82 climbers. Good. No sensible reaction in the back, celt was trying his own absolutely pointless and ridiculous farm tricks I think, not actually sure what was doing. Riding with Jelinek, 79 mountain was the only thing to make sense there, no idea what he did, but certainly wasn't riding with Jelinek. So at 152 attack with Larios, red. Neumann follows, Konig can't, we easily win a minute to Konig. Just ride up to Belhassen/Eiffel/Prilasnig. Neumann? Not in tempo. Fuck that, I go green, if he wants he can ride. or he can attack and go with Prilasnig while I then have to try to come back. But no, he does nothing, and that doesn't work so 1 km green, second km at 6 percent then no tempo at all (actually wanted green but in too late). WHAT THE FUCK??? I presented him a 95% made chance to win around a minute to Konig on day 4, and he wants that I present him the thing 99% made?`No way. At this point I decided to hack his computer, infect it with a bunch of viruses, lock the computer, demand money to unlock it, get his home address and send him some sarin, anthrax and to be safe a parcel bomb too. Fortunately for both of us my terroristic tendencies were once again hindered by my lack of the required expertise
. In the end Eiffel and Belhassen in front were predictably dropped by Sow and Schiwkow, in the back now Konig could follow an attack, and then countered, and since Neumann and Larios were hanging on each other gained 15". Instead of winning 1' we lose 15", idiotic. And I don't blame myself for it!

Anyway, big chance to gain time lost, in front Bacchan wins the stage, gets red and the mountains jersey. And now he and Stendera, 64 mountains but 58 TT and more reg become serious contenders for the GC.

Stage 5

Started exactly like stage 5. Huge group with Bachchan. This time the Donkey is there, with 2 riders, Krankl and Faye. And of course no plan to ride, more than happy to simply fight for stages now. Everybody else in front with the same plan... let Phoenix work for his GC win, that was basically going to be decided on stage 5, and try to get the stage. Then after the advantage had reached 10' celt starts riding in the back. What a joke.. now, after 34' he thinks about the GC? On hte first mountain in the back the Donkey tries a double attack, Swift-Belhassen. But somebody siebs, so out, Swift the optimist still tried. There the plan was a) bring Belhassen in front, stage win with him more likely... And maybe some GC fun later?

Phoenix stopped after the first mountain, Dead and Alive double attack from the group, Krankl and a Hessen, Hütter follow. Hessen the weaker guy, only 52 mountain. Phoenix chases, but gets no help.

Km 62 Brotcorne and Belhassen attack, since Swift never came back to the peloton after being siebed. Ok for me, less strong flat riders in the peloton then. But irrelevant, I could have gone with Messerli Belhassen and would have worked, Celt continuing his horrible, absolutely horrible riding, simply doesn't react. He just let's Brotcorne go. And go, and go. And go go "Chasing" with a half dead and useless even if fit rider, or something like that. . And then restarts trying his truly idiotic and pointless farmer attempts. Great attack in between though, Stendera, Hessen who had missed the early escape went now, in between Celts farmattempts... 72-78 the ones by celt, 75 Stendera. Km 80 the climb starts with a 5. What happens? Right, with Belhassen and Brotcorne with way too much time, further ahead Faye and even further ahead Krankl, the Donkey does the incredibly unexpected and surprising thing, he attacks. Green with Larios. Neumann, Sow, Schiwkow follow. Eiffel hanging there as a last minute decision too. After all going green he will follow... Who's missing. Celt. Stuff like this makes me lose all my belief in humanity, seriously, an attack that was basically announced, everybody knew it was coming, and Konig is not hanging? Trying some completely pointless, completely senseless farmer tricks with his riders? Ok gone, and done, wait for Martin who had followed Bogarin, Donkey with 6 riders ahead of the peloton Celt wasn't even fucking covering the km (Ok I might be a bit hard to the poor guy, but seriously, this is some of the worst riding I've ever seen, and I have ridden with both Toru Oedt and JoyRide, so I know bad, this here for a guy with his experience is mind boggling, so no, I'm not being hard on him.) But well, I demand Moja tempo again, this time works, he went out once, I reacted by putting Brotcorne back in... which really was enough vs the sorry collection of losers riding for celt in the back. Ride ride, in front Krankl proposes to McCulloch to ride green, since we were too fast in the LArios-Neumann group.

In the back, first km of the final climb, a +9, Eiffel in tempo, double attack, Neumann can't follow, he had asked if we ride together from there, I had answered with "secret plan"... he really needed to cover there, not just follow, then he probably catches me back soon... or I don't go yet, join him after that km instead of so. But like this, perfect. Larios goes, Neumann misses the first km after the attack, then in, gains time back, but not that much, on top still 31" second? Krankl 7" ahead of Larios, excellent, then Krankl pilots Larios and McCulloch to the finish. Stage for McCulloch, no energy to sprint anyway, and even if I had, I profited so much from having Krankl ahead thanks to him that he could have had the stage anyway.
1'09" won to Neumann, Sow and Schiwkow
2'24" to Konig. And Bachchan, Stendera.

Winner of the day: Larios and Stendera. Larios obvious, but Stendera after not being in the first group really did a great comeback.

Today:

Early group, 2 Alive and Deads, 1 Phoenix, 1 celt. I give them 3 minutes, don't like the leader, Phoenix, who most likely will lose the leadership at some point, yes, but it'^s not sure and even if, we're talking about x days in rosa/yellow but really red until then.... But Alive attacked again immediately, 2 guys ahead... nothing else. Donkey thinking. Go for stage? Save energy for tomorrow? AFter tomorrow? Etc. Bah, fuck it, try stage ,started at 10', gained time back fast, too fast, so Alive send another 2 riders. And there he wins it unless I get help, so asked Moja, he joined, then seemed clear, climber win. Final climb, Belhassen dropped on the first 8, Eiffel in tempo to cover, then out, wait for Belhassen... Jelinek in tempo, double attack with Konig, 14" ahead. Bah... that was a good attack, maybe celt is finally getting into the zone, getting his mojo back! 4 km left, 6 8 6 8, Larios in, Neumann joins, 12", then 8", then 5" before the last km... We both attack, land 1" ahead of Konig. Sprint, Neumann ahead, I try to go at 150, Neumann went there too, so didn't get anywhere, back to following and went at 50, lucky win for Larios. But I'll take it. Neumann IMO was stronger today, I had yes alone from the 8 on, Neumann still in tempo, probably very close that I ended in the same km... But as I said, I'll take it.


So situation now:

Bachchan 66-79 with 52 TT and 53 reg
Stendera at 35". 64-73 with 58TT and 64 reg.

These 2 being 2 makes them more dangerous, cooperation makes sense. Today Stendera, his boss being off, lost 26", on other days he might stay there. And Hessen has an excellent team to work for him. 67-82 and 70-76, both reg and downhill there. So a cooperation of those 2 makes them harder to crack IMO. The terrain to win enough time is there, but.... For me of course Stendera losing time today is excellent, at some point he might be too far behind Bachchan to collaborate...
Bachchan's team in the mountain is much weaker. Bachchan is the second strongest climber in the team. ...Without Hessen he'll be in trouble soon. With him... much harder to crack.

Pepelita at 11'01", irrelevant at this point
Larios 19'03"
Sow 20'02
Schiwkow 20'03

Sow and Schiwkow should be no problem for Larios. The ones ahead. There's the Tourmalet stage, then Farrapona, then Angliru and finally Covatilla, multi climb stages where dropping Bachchan early looks possible. If a bigger time gain is needed, 5'-10' at once, If just waiting for the final climbs turns out not to be enough. Not an unsurmountable task. Just waiting for the last climb of course should give quite some time gain as well, plus Moncalvillo too.

Neumann 20'43
Konig 21'16"

1'40" back for Neumann. He can mostly let me try to get back the time to the 2 ahead. Right now he's back including the TT too, with 7 more he should win 1'03" in 30 km, let's say 1'10" in the whole thing. Less if he downtrains... Be it as it may, he's back right now. But there's lots of mountains left, Tourmalet and Moncalvillo before the next training. So 88 vs 87. And he has more reg, so he still can hope to come back I think. Even if downtraining is a danger for him.
König 2'13" back, should win 2'15" in the 30 km, 34 so more, so he's slightly ahead of Larios. And around 1' ahead of Neumann. But to be honest, if celt continues to ride like he has so far.... he is absolutely no danger. If he continues like that both Moja and Donkey can give him another 2' almost whenever they want...yes, he was that bad so far.

So lots happened in these 3 days, hopefully less in the next 3 until my next post (and win, and win!), then I can make it shorter....
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by flockmastoR » Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:56 pm

Concerning stage 5:

At the time you proposed to go in green I was short before stopping tempo there, Loeve already nearly dead, and I thought that the climbers will gain more time on the mountain. Also thought that you are going for stage behind and sitting with your rider in front to annoy me.

Concerning stages from now:

Like seen today I will not waste any energy for teams with good climbers to send their classics in my group. When they send pullers too I may work if there are chances with my rider, otherwise no tempo or attack like today (well will not really work after my announcement). I prefer having no chance alone than pull those teams a single km.
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by flockmastoR » Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:07 pm

flockmastoR wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:56 pm
Concerning stage 5:

At the time you proposed to go in green I was short before stopping tempo there, Loeve already nearly dead, and I thought that the climbers will gain more time on the mountain. Also thought that you are going for stage behind and sitting with your rider in front to annoy me.

Concerning stages from now:

Like seen today I will not waste any energy for teams with good climbers to send their classics in my group. When they send pullers too I may work if there are chances with my rider, otherwise no tempo or attack like today (well will not really work after my announcement). I prefer having no chance alone than pull those teams a single km.
I should have listened to what I wrote Here...
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:00 pm

The system is broken! Next 3 days, I didn't win today. Wäääää

Stage 7

Not much action, stage favorite VC Multi offline... Only a lonely Phoenix attacking at first. Later 2 more with 2 Mojas, Prepelita amongst them. Donkey only slightly controlling, Prepelita leader seemed ok to him, not to Phoenix finally, who when it became dangerous did a few km in the peloton, Moja stopped soon in front. Interesting final for the stage in front, 3 Phoenix, 2 Mojas, 1 NOvostil, 1 Moja dropped, Phoenix tries twice with the weakest guys, Novostil with best sprint catches him, then Phoenix and Prepelita go at the same time, Prepelita in front, stage win.

Stage 8

Multi on, excellent, so he can work, I can recover a bit. Help him in the end, drop Bachchan, who due to reg issues lost 1'14" finally. Shterev the win, despite a horrible sprint... but 75 vs all those 50-60 guys... easy. Neumann with 6" bonifation gets the point jersey. Early escape was going to go through until Multi showed up, then Celt for reasons unknown refused to collaborate in front, chances with Multi there and me ready to help were small then anyway, still, was worth trying.

Stage 9

Donkey tempo the whole stage, drop Bachchan on the Aubisque. 1' on top, came back to 20" once, then Belhassen took over. Tourmalet.... Eiffel siebs Belhassen as expected.... Donkey decides to gamble, wait for him. Not unexpected Konig attacks, I hoped Neumann goes actually. Then Eiffel in, but soon attack with Larios, as hoped, since it looks like Neumann has rather strange form to me, Neumann can't follow. 13" ahead, catch Konig the next km. First mistake, should have ridden a bit more with Eiffel, in front Celt seemed to plan to ride with Jelinek anyway, weirdo... And then ask Moja for collaboration, Larios and Neumann in, go in the end. But went, still ok. But then 9 8 5, that 5 really scared me... no fighting for Konig for sure, and I did the dumb thing and attacked on 8. From the app, was restarting my computer.... idiot, I knew that then Neumann who was gaining 1" per km before would easily catch me, still did it. Konig still too close and wanted to avoid him winning the stage or hanging on to me if I carried him too long. Should have taken the risk, but since IMO Celt has been riding so badly and against his own rider, I really want to avoid giving him the GC win... .but too paranoid today, take the risk, race is long, still think I can take time from him here and there. So second attack, Neumann comes and ocmes, is friendly enough to the same as me, attack Celt, 1" behind, and I thought he would attack and drop me... the sooner the better actually, then both 2 attacks maybe I can come back. But clever, he had me fighting... .last km attack.. didn't happen. Too nice Moja here. He really should have attacked me and would have gained quite a bit IMO. But for me better like this, despite riding hte final climb badly, lost only 4" to Neumann (but that's 10" in 2 days) and gained 26" to Konig.
5'44" to Bachchan.

Situation now... .12'05 behind Bacchan. Catcheable. Wednesday should be another 2'+ normally.
Stendera 1'11 behind Bachchan, should gain a bit less in the TT, so is behind him. But not far enough not to help him, which is the biggest problem for the climbers really. Phoenix alone should have no chance to hang on.

1'30" ahead of Neumann. Can expect to lose 1'11" if he doesn't downtrain, 1'04" if he does. So ahead. But lots of mountains to come....
2'39" to Konig. Can expect to lose 2'33" in the TT.

So including the TT the climbers situation now is:
Larios
Konig 6"
Neumann 19"-26"

Very close... But as I said before, don't really believe in Konig, the way he has been riding his 6" could become more...
Neumann much more dangerous, but the downtraining a danger for him. Next one is before Farrapona and Angliru, if he loses a mountain point then becomes more difficult, if he doesn't... really depends on what his form is, a complete mystery to me, Arctic? Burgos? No idea, but seems strange.

Donkey should be happy, all looking good, got a nice bunch of time back to Bachchan. I'm "virtual red" of the climbers. But.... I really should have won this stage, so not too happy actually. But well, I shouldn't have won the previous one with Larios, so shouldn't complain. And having Neumann closer might finally convince him to start riding against Phoenix too, so far it really has been 90% me.... I'll continue, I rather lose fighting than lose just gifting it to Bachchan, but some more support from the other contenders wouldn't hurt either. No hope Celt sees the light, but Neumann maybe?
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Sun Aug 23, 2020 6:11 pm

Ah, other jerseys_
Mountain, now Bachchan and Larios with 38 points.. tried to deny Bachchan, that at least temporarily, but failed there too... :cry: Neumann with 34 is close behind.
Points now Neumann 76 vs 59 Messerli and Stendera. The natural favorite, Shterev is off too much, so this one seems really really open, at this point I don't know who is the favorite. Maybe Neumann? Since when I ride against Bachchan he then sprints well too.. (while my guys are dead from riding.. hm.... I need to rethink that)
YOuth Schiwkow, thought he has it for sure and can go help Bachchan, but actually no, Jelinek is still there.... But if Schiwkow rides for himself he has it for sure. If at some point he tries to help Bachchan... .risky. But IMO Farrapona the first time it might make sense, the climb on Wednesday is too steep. Or maybe I just don't know what settings are necessary.. but think he drops him at green too? Green, yes with all?
Team: Hessen if he is online enough.. otherwise Phoenix might get it in an escape. Moja third, the biggest challenger at 17'. Donkey would need an escape too.


Ah, and horrible Gruppetto work here. Donkey not helping, I avoided the Gruppetto and made my own a bit ahead. Because I suspected might end up like this. Alive and Dead the only one riding, Ugao with 3 not a meter. PHoenix with only 1 helped a bit, nice, the rest part time offline, but even when online no help... wrong way to do this...
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:26 pm

Definitely broken the system, 0 wins this week for the friendly Donkey :cry:
Doesn't matter, the fight for the GC more important now.

Stage 10: Middle mountain stage, VC Multi controls, Big Donkey brings him to the sprint was the plan. While dropping Bachchan, although that wasn't 100% necessary. More important was not to ride and ride and then have Neumann getting bonifications. So keep Eiffel fit this time, for the sprint. Didn't help, in the hill in the end Belhassen Eiffel were behind Prilasnig who rode. Against Bachchan IMO made more sense waiting for the group with Shterev and the 2 Donkeys, but for bonifications that was probably the better chance for Moja. Not having Faye this time, unfit from the Tourmalet, couldn't/didn't want to ride with Belhassen too much, block the end.... so in the end missed 2" to get the Neumann group, but he finished 4th, so all ok. Almost, Konig got 6" instead. Bah... Better if I ride 1-2 km more with Belhassen after all, then probably no bonification loss, and VC Multi gets his reward for controlling, Donkey failure here.

Stage 11: Mountain arrival, Neumann wins, Larios second, same time, Konig 19" back. Sieb with Belhassen the mountain before, then browser freeze, so he rode 2-3 km, until I could take him out and ride with Faye to catch up, but didn't work, Belhassen was out, Faye not in, blah. Moja (sitted by Hansa until Friday if I understand it correctly) seemed ready to collaborate, but well, wasn't really planned to get time on Bachchan there, final climb seemed good enough that day. But ok, with Mertens and Martin there too, so 3-4-5 guys who can ride, maybe would have been worth it?`But somehow seems a big energy expenditure for little too, so was ok like that. Final climb, easy, Larios attacks, Neumann follows, Konig surprisingly too. At 10. Neumann then in tempo, Donkey joined with Larios with 10" tricks, wasn't hanging after all. Then Neumann went, gained 5", more than I hoped... 3 km left, 2 11 and one 6, Larios rides, back to 3", So... attack on the next 11 and probably get second place or ride, attack on the 6 with a chance for the win? Go for the win, no. Konig, on a 6 the chances to follow are better quite good IMO, even if possibly he was fighting on 11. On 11, second attack often is the good one, so went there, right decision, 20" vs him don't hurt. He has become more dangerous again, reason is that Neumann is coming closer and closer, so have less freedom to spend energy on Konig.... Better get a bigger cushion on him, even if I still don't think he's really a danger, rides too badly for that.

Stage 12: Sprint. And the Donkey was proven wrong. Experience counts he proudly proclaimed after the first 2 sprints. Bullshit. Today Mr Experience himself, the Big Donkey, managed to fuck up the sprint :lol: Bogarin from the front, but not helping Messerli, great.... put in sprint quite early, but not the details, wasn't sure if I want to follow Bennett with Messerli and Cipollini with Bogarin or try my 2 man train again. Went for the train, adjusted Bogarin to from the front, but not the helping. Brilliant. Otherwise not much to say. Ugao really not working well enough for the sprint, with his rather weak team he needs to ride from the start, together with Novostil. Kill 1 or 2 of his 7x flat riders. and then when I join with my first guy at around half time, join with a fresh one. He let Novo do most of the first part, then went red with his 7x guys instead... just join green and maybe go to red later on, but from the start. Then a break when I joined. Yes, he doesn't have the team, but a bit more better. Novostil perfect on the other hand. But the sprint.... Bogarin with Novostil's 77 in the wheel. PERFECT. And since I won't take sprint out and do kind of weird sprints, he need to follow and go at 250. Bennett has Cipollini on his wheel, Shterev 75 was further back and blocked. Just go. forces Bennett to go early. But no, he waited and waited and finally went at 100. WAY too late. Shterev, could easily have gotten third place, but instead of sprinting went to Isidros wheel, on the side, just go... Bennett... he went early anyway, 150, really not necessary, even if Isidro or Shterev go early now, normally at 100 he should get them back. Go early, easy win for Cipollini. But here Novostil made the opposite error. He went at 100 with Cipollini too, and didn't manage to overtake him. Wait till 50, and it's a very deserved win... Really bad sprint by Novo, too bad, his work for the sprint was very good, but needs to improve the sprint, he had it, twice, with Juanisti first, but waited till 100, with Cipo later, but went at 100....

GC:
Bachchan still ahead, but somehow I'm not really concerned too much anymore. He could lose the red jersey in the next 2 stages already, depending on how much I (and/or Moja, but now there really is no big need anymore) want to invest. San Lorenzo is hard, dropping Bachchan there can be lots of time, but then of course energy for the Angliru might be missing... Anyway, he should the climbers should gain 5+ minutes on him without much effort on Farrapona-Angliru, more with a bit more effort. Biggest danger is a comeback with further attacks in September.. but right now Bachchan seems under control.

So Larios-Neumann-Konig, right now 1'26" to Neumann, 1'11" predicted to lose, so 15" and 2'54" to König, 2'35 loss predicted. So 15"-19" advantage for Larios. All very tight. 87-87-86 now in the mountain, after Neumann lost 1 mountain point. Bonifications could play a big role, that speaks for Neumann-Larios. And reg, but that speaks against Larios, even in the TT, no real hard stage the next day, but starting at 700 doesn't sound advisable either, will see how to do it then.
Even a small time gap between those 3 in the next 3 mountain stages could prove decisive.
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:45 pm

Finally red!
Javier Larios takes over, finally finally.
Neumann 1'03" behind, so with that 1'11" I predict he's 8" ahead. Bah.... Have to admit, don't want to see Neumann or Konig win this, they IMO simply don't deserve it, better riders than Larios, do shit against Bachchan unti the Donkey and Larios had done the main part. But well, now looks very open between Larios and Neumann first. Neumann clear favorite... IF he doesn't downtrain. But that downtrain risk is there, so it's pretty even in the end. (Ok, Larios can downtrain too of course in Spetember, but should be a lower risk)
Neumann should win around 1'11" in the TT. Rather more, depending on how much reg I decide to use. I do have 11 less reg, so ideally I would have had 1'30" advantage here, allowing me to take it a bit easier, but can't afford that now. Konig, 2'52" back, so he's 30" or so behind Neumann... he of course might train up still.
Schiwkow an excellent 3rd right now2'25" behind, With only 48 TT and still only 84 mountain, even if he trains up challenging for the win seems impossible, podium difficult too unless somebody collapses. But IMO so far he's stayed in GC very well, the guy has talent, in the Andes could be a good challenger.

Stage 13

Donkey ok with helping VC Multi for the stage again, but as little as possible. Multi controls is nice for me, but Neumann getting bonifications isn't. Turned out that Multi started too late, in the end the group saved 1'11", Neumann in the back would have gotten 4" bonification. In front Hessen finally one a stage too, so only Novostil missing now. But he really should have won 2 sprint stages.... still hope he gets one somewhere now.

Stage 14

Again, group is ok for me, so it was. It hurt a bit, letting a group win such a nice mountain stage, but well, if Moja doesn't realize he normally wins this and rides... I'll not try to catch that group. Hoped for a bigger one, to avoid losing bonifications. So did as little as possible until the San Lorenzo. There did my Bachchan thing, unnecessary, was pretty clear he was going to lose it today regardless, but why not use the San Lorenzo for something useful. Predestined for an attack from far really, with a puller ahead, doing nothing at all seemed a waste of such a nice mountain. So Belhassen, Eiffel helping, Neumann only Prilasnig. Killing Belhassen with 100 form... was confident would hurt me today, don't think it did. Final climb, a completely nonsensical attack on a 6 before a flat part, 1 5 2 3... fantastic. I was starting to undress to dance naked for winning time today.... Then.... 2 km tempo on 8, with less energy Neumann even with 100 form should be fighting, then attack on 9... he follows. Try again, he follows again. And then he counters me, wins 4" plus 4" bonifications... Damn... after the following I was convinced I'd gain time. Maybe attack on 8 immediately? Or even risk the attack on the 3 before the climb restarts, that km in front they had stopped riding, since they were getting caught anyway... Be it as it may, highly depressing time loss, tihnk I did everything right, but still lost.

Stage 15

Feared the worst... and couldn't reach c4f until the first hill or so... so feared even worse than the worst. Larios only 1 helper yet, thought I start with 1 since it looked downhill, give the second one if tempo is high... blah. 968 when I cam on. Then not much to say, Moja controlling, with rather unnecessary farmers, didn't hurt him, but didn't really help him either. Larios stayed at 970 max basically, 943 before the Angliru started. Slowly, slowly, Martin riding till it got really steep. There Eiffel one km, from then on Larios, with in out tries, hoped that Neumann waits till the 17, he did, excellent. I think an early attack would have gotten him more time. See Tourmalet, I attack and lose 1" per km before I attack again. Here? He attacks and keeps it, form probably the other way around here. So it was 89 Larios 88,4 o or 88,1. Today 88.74 vs 87.1. (assuming he had topform yesterday) Even if he attacks early, I expected to lose time not win it. So happy he waited till the 17, 3 km to go. 10" gained, I expected 8", argh. Attacked the following km, down to 8", and then lost another one at the 7, with another attack. 9" plus 6" bonifications lost, very happy with how it worked today, was fearing 30" or so. Other possible tactic was attack at the 17 myself, then probably I lose much less there, 4-5", but lose more time in the following km, so probably similar.


8" behind on paper now.... biggest regret is Tourmalet, where I simply didn't stay cool and carried celt as I should have. Think would have won the stage then. It still worked out ok, Neumann was nice and carried me to the top, but if I simply wait with the second attack IMO Neumann doesn't catch me. 13" back, winning 1" per km, but that might have gone down to 0" soon... more energy uses more energy, ha. Celt, he had an attack and even if I carry him, I still get rid of him. That was my big mistake here I think.
100 form was Tourmalet, which worked... after all I am 1'03" ahead with a climber that for much of the race was 1 lower than Neumann. Got rid of Neumann on the day I gained the time, then somehow managed to hang on on the day I was unfit, 940 or so at the start, hang on and win, thanks to a bad Neumann sprint. Possibly Neumann unfit too there. Moncalvillo with probably 97-97 form worked well too, could have won that one as well, but then I risk Konig winning, and sorry, a guy that lets a group win 24' with a 86 mountain 65 TT can't expect that I even give him a chance for a mountain stage win... get rid of him, stage for Neumann was ok there, no problem. 19" to Konig was more important anyway.

So GC is very open, TT, Covatilla, but possibly the middle mountain stages could play a role too, especially if, as has to be expected, some climbers (Larios...) are not fit for one of them... Lots depends on training... I hope Larios keeps, Neumann loses, Konig doesn't train up.

White is easy for Schiwkow. Eiffel second now, Jelinek managed to lose time somehow... lots of it.

Mountain: Very open, the climbers won't have time to collect points on the way normally, keep even the energy that a green km would cost, so Juanisti, McCulloch have chances. But on the other hand Neumann-Larios will score points anyway on the big mountains...Bachchan comeback looks hard.

Green: Neumann dominating, but with the 3 middle mountain stages that might favor escapers.. who knows, but it should stay with Neumann.

Anyway, interesting 3rd week coming up, even if only 1 climbing stage in the third week is a bit boring....
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Fri Sep 04, 2020 1:04 pm

Almost forgot my update.

TT: Very close to the prediction, 1" off to both Konig and Neumann. 1'10" lost to Neumann finally. But the prediction was wrong, should have been 1'07" Larios lost 24"-20"-23" per 10 km, then 3" in the 2 flat ones and 0 in the 2 last km. So was 3"-4" back to the plan really. First few km I tried with 95%, then 100% all the way, so without that maybe I'd managed to lose the planned amount? Now 7" back. Neumann has 8" to defend.

Stage 17:

Unfit Larios, escape, Phoenix wins. Larios tries to benefit from his energy disadvantage... meaning hoping everybody thinks he's to unfit to try and don't follow. As it happened everybody followed....

Stage 18:
Fita Larios, escape, Phoenix wins... same deal, this time the Donkey wanted to be in front for once too, but had no chance, since Faye had to fight to get there, with 200 less energy.

So really 2 stages where nothing of importance, except Phoenix' wins happened, as could be expected. Waiting for Covatilla!
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by Robyklebt » Sat Sep 05, 2020 7:13 pm

Only 2 days break, but ok, today the final GC day, so today ok too.

Finally
Neumann
Larios 13"
Konig 29"

Stage went basically as I thought, in the end it's Konig that goes, Neumann that rides behind him, Larios that attacks. Hoped Konig a km earlier, then maybe Neumann 1 km earlier too, maybe enough to get rid of him? But doubtful, energy difference most likely simply not big enough. If there's another +9 or so in the last km, maybe the second attack works, but....

Early attempts to later isolate Neumann somehow with a sieb, so riders ahead. Krankl covered, we rode a bit just to ride, for me for the stage win too, wanted it to be for the stage and get the full bonification after all... Second attempt then almost worked, Faye-Belhassen, Moja going slowly behind, slowly in the mountain too, excellent, but then he attacked with 2 of his riders... so.....should have siebed earlier and take the risk to not keep Faye, or cover with Krankl or bogarin in the back. Then would have had 2 helpers vs 1 for a few km before the Covatilla, like this no.
Final climb then as described, as a bonus forgot to put in sprint. Thought I put it in, but obviously hadn't.

So another second place, which is ok. I think out of the 3 on the podium I would have been the far most deserving and rode the best, clearly. I'm 13" behind a guy with 88 mountain for half the tour, and 57 TT with 11 more reg. 16" ahead of 86 with 65 TT. Didn't ride perfectly either of course, biggest mistake IMO Tourmalet, carry Konig, re-attack him in the last km... Advantage then would have been bigger, but of course everything changes, maybe Neumann then attacks earlier on Angliru, so no guarantee this would have worked. Think I rode well, just wasn't enough.

Tomorrow sprint the goal, we'll see if we get it. And then if we win it... doubtful, grrr.
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Re: Vuelta 2020 15:00 or will it be cancelled in the last moment like 2009?

Post by flockmastoR » Sun Sep 06, 2020 8:43 am

Finally Alive And Dead manages to win a mountain jersey at a GT. Never really though about going for the jersey, didn't really look realistic at the start of the Tour. Kamaladevi Bachchan was the escaper that was planned to go for the mountain jersey. But with getting the leader jersey and many minutes he (had to) stay in back from than and Phoenix decided to go for stages very successfully. At stage 14 I then decided to try it with McCulloch. Never thougth we would get the stage and due to a mistake I lost the (virtual) jersey to Juaristi. Also lost the stage so I was a bit pissed there.

So after stage 14, McCulloch 4 pts behind Juaristi and both not safe before the climbers with Stage 15 and 20 ahead. McCulloch with less mountain and less reg didnt look like he can win it in a 1:1 so I decided to let Ugao (Taka) take his chance and just hang there to wait for errors. Stage 19 was then really the last chance to win advantage over the climbers because the final HC stage I expected many attacks and early siebs, so not sure if 1) McCulloch could be in front and 2) Chance of a climber getting early pts was high. On stage 19 McCulloch attacked, Juaristi not hanging and Taka off, excellent. Then Taka comes on. Was expecting high tempo and a counter attack to win the jersey finally but Taka decided to also attack. Novostil also there with puller and Scarf. My guys would have easily controlled Ugaos guys but with Novostil in tempo back too it looked chanceless. Than Phoenix joined in front too and secured my chances. Juaristi in tempo a lot, McCulloch than too. Than it looked like that they easily catch us (still energy advantages for McCulloch) but Juaristi dropped and the mountain jersey was safed for the day (and finally).

Other jerseys:
White: Schiwkow (Team-Hessen)
Sprint: Lutz Neumann (Team-Mojabahs)
Team: Team-Hessen

Stages:
Team-Mojabahs: 5
Team-Phoenix: 5
Ugao TE: 3
celteam: 2
Big Donkey: 2
Hessen Cycling: 1
VC Team Multi: 1
Alive And Dead: 1
Novostil: 0

Last stage should go to Novostil then, but on the app it will be hard.
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