Tour de France predictions

[Falcor CC]

What does the R4F community think? Will do a new poll after the Dauphine!

[Tukhtahuaev]

There really is no competition for Pogacar as long as he stays healthy

[Falcor CC]

I'm honestly surprised he's up 6-0 so far here. He was the favorite in the 2 editions Jonas won too... I'm leaning Pogi but it's still close, especially considering Pogi's form peak so early in the season

[TDM_Luxembourg]

Who voted for another one and for who?

[Hansa]

Pogacar the clear favorite for me, only Jonas i give realistic chances beating him (i still voted Jonas)

[Hoefs Cycling Team]

I hope Vingegaard, but i think Pogacar (i voted Pogacar)

[drei.zehn]

Nobody hopes for Vingegaard

[Falcor CC]

I hope Felix Gall wins, that guy rides his bike so sexy

[bergwerk cycling]

Nobody hopes for Vingegaard

[Chemnitz Pro Cycling Team]

I hope Roglic but since he can't ride a tour without falling down it will be Pogi

[TDM_Luxembourg]

I hope Roglic but since he can't ride a tour without falling down it will be Pogi

True

[ECS Cycling]

My heart tells me Jonas, head tells me Pogi. Nobody else has a chance. I'll need to see both their form in Dauphine before I decide.

[TDM_Luxembourg]

I thought, We will get a second chance after Dauphine

[Falcor CC]

Didn't you ask to wait until after Suisse?

Felix Gall gonna win there first so I can justify my prediction for him

[drei.zehn]

My heart tells me Jonas…

Whats wrong with you? ;D Nobody picks Jonas over Tadej because he likes him more…

[Hansa]

My heart tells me Jonas…

Whats wrong with you? ;D Nobody picks Jonas over Tadej because he likes him more…

Who doesnt like Jonas more than Tadej????

[TDM_Luxembourg]

@Falcor CC the second poll despawned

[Falcor CC]

Still there for me (skill issue on your behalf)

[Ghostly]

I’m curious how you usually approach predictions for the Tour de France. Do you tend to follow the race closely as a discipline in itself, or is it more of a casual interest during the three weeks?
Also, do you rely on any kind of prediction system or structured analysis, or is it mostly based on experience, form, and race intuition? With so many variables — weather, team tactics, stages, crashes — it feels very different from predicting single-day events.
Interested to hear how others here read the Tour and whether you use specific methods or just follow the flow of the race.

The Tour de France hasn’t started yet, but the discussion is already well underway. As always, bookmakers have released their antepost odds, and they give an interesting picture of how this year’s race is being viewed before a single kilometer is ridden as we can see it in websites such as https://sitiscommessepococonosciuti.com/ and the like.

At the moment, there doesn’t seem to be a clear, untouchable favorite. Some riders are priced lower than others, of course, but the overall feeling is that this Tour could be more open than the odds initially suggest. Over three weeks, consistency, team strategy, recovery, and avoiding bad days often matter more than pure strength.

What’s also interesting is how much bookmakers are factoring in the route and key stages, rather than focusing only on big names. That says a lot about how fragile the balance can be. One poor time trial, a bad day in the mountains, or even crosswinds on a flat stage can completely reshape the general classification.

As always, odds are a useful reference, but they never tell the full story. The Tour de France has a long history of overturning early predictions, with favorites cracking and outsiders growing stronger day after day as the race unfolds.

What do you think? Are the bookmakers reading this Tour correctly, or are there riders being underestimated before the race even begins? Is it better to trust the early odds, or wait for the first stages to really understand who’s in the fight for the overall victory?