Re: FPC Case #362
Posted: Mon May 06, 2019 10:06 pm
Ok, fl, I value your opinion, so I have to examine your calculation.
But now comes the important part. In fact, I am afraid, you did not understand that calculation, because in the main chat you wrote "Team FL<15:39>: Gipfelstürmer hat einfach alle möglichen Zeiten für alle mögliche Rennen in diesem Zeitraum genommen. Natürlich kommt dann als Resultat raus, dass es höchst unwahrscheinlich ist. Nur sagt das nicht aus über eine Verflechtung der beiden Teams, aus dem eben geannten Grund."
This is a completely false understanding of my calculation. During Boels Team active time from November 23, 2018 to January 20, 2019 (i.e. 59 days), there were 115 races between 21h and 24h. Obviously, there were even more races in total, about 4-5 editions per race, so about 500 races!
But as I already assumed, that perhaps Boels Team could only ride later night, I started with these 115 races. Of these 115 races, Auxilium Torino joined 53 races.
What is the intuition behin this low percentage? Think about, that we have one day races and tours, sometimes multiple one day races, sometimes multiple tours. If there is a one day race and a tour at the same time (which is most often the case), and two players always go for the same option (both one day race, then both tour, then both one day race, etc...), that is very unlikely to be random.
You can also think of the same percentages in a different situation: For example, think of Black Jack. How likely is it to go to the casino, play Black Jack and win 15 times in a row? Let's say the probability is 50% for one game of Black Jack. Then for 15 games it is 50%^15 = 0.00305%. If you started with 2 EUR, that gives you 2^15 = 32.768 EUR. Maybe you think winning a game of Black Jack is likely (or meeting Aux in a night race), but winning 15 games in a row (or meeting Aux in a night race 15 times in a row) is highly unlikely.
Thus, the correct mathematical conclusion is:
- 0.00089% probability
- Usage of VPN
- Riding for sprint without a sprinter and without success
- No communication in race chat
- No answers to FPC
- No complains after Ban
- No explanation from Aux
To stay in the example in the casino:
- Suppose you own a casino.
- A man goes to your casino, wins 15 Black Jack games in a row, earns 32.768 EUR from 2 EUR bet.
- The man has 10 different fake passports.
- The man gives all the money to another man outside the casino.
- The man said no word at the Black Jack table.
- The man doesn't answer the police.
- The man doesn't complain about ban from the casino.
- The man outside the casino cannot explain why he received the 32.768 EUR.
So did the man count cards? And did he cooperate with the man outside the casino?
(For those who don't know Black Jack: It is illegal to count cards and make money out of that.)
Also, 4 of 5 professional Black Jack players say, that he must have counted the cards. But the owner of the casino says, that there is not enough evidence.
Only in the future other players start to complain. Because more and more people come with fake passports. More and more people say no word at the Black Jack table. There is always this suspicious guy in front of the casino taking the money. So the players, one after another, slowly but steadily, they decide to go to a different casino.
Correct. We agree:
Gipfelstuermer wrote: ↑Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:16 pmAssume that Boels Team joins C4F. He can only ride late evening (21h-24h).
Not precisely the information we need. Truth is:
Gipfelstuermer wrote: ↑Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:16 pmAuxilium Torino rode 53 of 115 races during the active time of Boel's Team
Correct conclusion. I calculated that.
But now comes the important part. In fact, I am afraid, you did not understand that calculation, because in the main chat you wrote "Team FL<15:39>: Gipfelstürmer hat einfach alle möglichen Zeiten für alle mögliche Rennen in diesem Zeitraum genommen. Natürlich kommt dann als Resultat raus, dass es höchst unwahrscheinlich ist. Nur sagt das nicht aus über eine Verflechtung der beiden Teams, aus dem eben geannten Grund."
This is a completely false understanding of my calculation. During Boels Team active time from November 23, 2018 to January 20, 2019 (i.e. 59 days), there were 115 races between 21h and 24h. Obviously, there were even more races in total, about 4-5 editions per race, so about 500 races!
But as I already assumed, that perhaps Boels Team could only ride later night, I started with these 115 races. Of these 115 races, Auxilium Torino joined 53 races.
Incorrect conclusion. I calculated that.
Gipfelstuermer wrote: ↑Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:16 pmBut what is the probability, that he meets Auxilium Torino 15-times in a row? It is approximately (53/115)^15 = 0.00089%.
I actually find 0.00089% very surprising.
What is the intuition behin this low percentage? Think about, that we have one day races and tours, sometimes multiple one day races, sometimes multiple tours. If there is a one day race and a tour at the same time (which is most often the case), and two players always go for the same option (both one day race, then both tour, then both one day race, etc...), that is very unlikely to be random.
You can also think of the same percentages in a different situation: For example, think of Black Jack. How likely is it to go to the casino, play Black Jack and win 15 times in a row? Let's say the probability is 50% for one game of Black Jack. Then for 15 games it is 50%^15 = 0.00305%. If you started with 2 EUR, that gives you 2^15 = 32.768 EUR. Maybe you think winning a game of Black Jack is likely (or meeting Aux in a night race), but winning 15 games in a row (or meeting Aux in a night race 15 times in a row) is highly unlikely.
Thus, the correct mathematical conclusion is:
So, if you were a GM, you may have heard of circumstantial evidence. Here is the list:
- 0.00089% probability
- Usage of VPN
- Riding for sprint without a sprinter and without success
- No communication in race chat
- No answers to FPC
- No complains after Ban
- No explanation from Aux
To stay in the example in the casino:
- Suppose you own a casino.
- A man goes to your casino, wins 15 Black Jack games in a row, earns 32.768 EUR from 2 EUR bet.
- The man has 10 different fake passports.
- The man gives all the money to another man outside the casino.
- The man said no word at the Black Jack table.
- The man doesn't answer the police.
- The man doesn't complain about ban from the casino.
- The man outside the casino cannot explain why he received the 32.768 EUR.
So did the man count cards? And did he cooperate with the man outside the casino?
(For those who don't know Black Jack: It is illegal to count cards and make money out of that.)
Also, 4 of 5 professional Black Jack players say, that he must have counted the cards. But the owner of the casino says, that there is not enough evidence.
Only in the future other players start to complain. Because more and more people come with fake passports. More and more people say no word at the Black Jack table. There is always this suspicious guy in front of the casino taking the money. So the players, one after another, slowly but steadily, they decide to go to a different casino.